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fix(experiments): Use absolute_exposure not relative exposure #26872

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merged 1 commit into from
Dec 13, 2024
Merged

fix(experiments): Use absolute_exposure not relative exposure #26872

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14 changes: 4 additions & 10 deletions posthog/hogql_queries/experiments/test/test_trends_statistics.py
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -279,16 +279,10 @@ def run_test(stats_version, calculate_probabilities, are_results_significant, ca
intervals = calculate_credible_intervals([control, test])

self.assertEqual(len(probabilities), 2)
if stats_version == 2:
self.assertTrue(probabilities[0] < 0.1)
self.assertTrue(0.9 < probabilities[1])
self.assertEqual(significance, ExperimentSignificanceCode.SIGNIFICANT)
self.assertEqual(p_value, 0)
else:
self.assertTrue(0.4 < probabilities[0] < 0.6) # Close to 50/50
self.assertTrue(0.4 < probabilities[1] < 0.6) # Close to 50/50
self.assertEqual(significance, ExperimentSignificanceCode.LOW_WIN_PROBABILITY)
self.assertEqual(p_value, 1)
self.assertTrue(0.4 < probabilities[0] < 0.6) # Close to 50/50
self.assertTrue(0.4 < probabilities[1] < 0.6) # Close to 50/50
self.assertEqual(significance, ExperimentSignificanceCode.LOW_WIN_PROBABILITY)
self.assertEqual(p_value, 1)

# Control at ~10% conversion rate
self.assertAlmostEqual(intervals["control"][0], 0.094, places=2)
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4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions posthog/hogql_queries/experiments/trends_statistics_v2.py
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Expand Up @@ -57,7 +57,7 @@ def calculate_probabilities_v2(

# Calculate posterior parameters for control
alpha_control = PRIOR_ALPHA + control_variant.count
beta_control = PRIOR_BETA + control_variant.exposure
beta_control = PRIOR_BETA + control_variant.absolute_exposure

# Draw samples from control posterior
samples_control = gamma.rvs(alpha_control, scale=1 / beta_control, size=SAMPLE_SIZE)
Expand All @@ -66,7 +66,7 @@ def calculate_probabilities_v2(
test_samples = []
for test in test_variants:
alpha_test = PRIOR_ALPHA + test.count
beta_test = PRIOR_BETA + test.exposure
beta_test = PRIOR_BETA + test.absolute_exposure
test_samples.append(gamma.rvs(alpha_test, scale=1 / beta_test, size=SAMPLE_SIZE))

# Calculate probabilities
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