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…cape-updates-2 Fervo Project Cape Updates
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| ***************** | ||
| ***CASE REPORT*** | ||
| ***************** | ||
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| Simulation Metadata | ||
| ---------------------- | ||
| GEOPHIRES Version: 3.6.0 | ||
| Simulation Date: 2024-10-04 | ||
| Simulation Time: 13:05 | ||
| Calculation Time: 0.653 sec | ||
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| ***SUMMARY OF RESULTS*** | ||
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| End-Use Option: Electricity | ||
| Average Net Electricity Production: 8.90 MW | ||
| Electricity breakeven price: 10.19 cents/kWh | ||
| Number of production wells: 1 | ||
| Number of injection wells: 2 | ||
| Flowrate per production well: 93.0 kg/sec | ||
| Well depth (or total length, if not vertical): 2.6 kilometer | ||
| Geothermal gradient: 74 degC/km | ||
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| ***ECONOMIC PARAMETERS*** | ||
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| Economic Model = BICYCLE | ||
| Accrued financing during construction: 5.00 | ||
| Project lifetime: 15 yr | ||
| Capacity factor: 90.0 % | ||
| Project NPV: 46.67 MUSD | ||
| Project IRR: 17.54 % | ||
| Project VIR=PI=PIR: 1.92 | ||
| Project MOIC: 1.40 | ||
| Project Payback Period: 6.50 yr | ||
| Estimated Jobs Created: 19 | ||
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| ***ENGINEERING PARAMETERS*** | ||
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| Number of Production Wells: 1 | ||
| Number of Injection Wells: 2 | ||
| Well depth (or total length, if not vertical): 2.6 kilometer | ||
| Water loss rate: 2.0 | ||
| Pump efficiency: 80.0 | ||
| Injection temperature: 56.7 degC | ||
| Production Wellbore heat transmission calculated with Ramey's model | ||
| Average production well temperature drop: 2.3 degC | ||
| Flowrate per production well: 93.0 kg/sec | ||
| Injection well casing ID: 7.000 in | ||
| Production well casing ID: 7.000 in | ||
| Number of times redrilling: 0 | ||
| Power plant type: Supercritical ORC | ||
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| ***RESOURCE CHARACTERISTICS*** | ||
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| Maximum reservoir temperature: 500.0 degC | ||
| Number of segments: 1 | ||
| Geothermal gradient: 74 degC/km | ||
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| ***RESERVOIR PARAMETERS*** | ||
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| Reservoir Model = Multiple Parallel Fractures Model | ||
| Bottom-hole temperature: 201.72 degC | ||
| Fracture model = Rectangular | ||
| Well separation: fracture height: 300.00 meter | ||
| Fracture width: 400.00 meter | ||
| Fracture area: 120000.00 m**2 | ||
| Reservoir volume calculated with fracture separation and number of fractures as input | ||
| Number of fractures: 108.00 | ||
| Fracture separation: 30.00 meter | ||
| Reservoir volume: 385200000 m**3 | ||
| Reservoir impedance: 0.01 GPa.s/m**3 | ||
| Reservoir density: 2800.00 kg/m**3 | ||
| Reservoir thermal conductivity: 3.05 W/m/K | ||
| Reservoir heat capacity: 790.00 J/kg/K | ||
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| ***RESERVOIR SIMULATION RESULTS*** | ||
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| Maximum Production Temperature: 199.7 degC | ||
| Average Production Temperature: 199.5 degC | ||
| Minimum Production Temperature: 198.2 degC | ||
| Initial Production Temperature: 198.2 degC | ||
| Average Reservoir Heat Extraction: 55.61 MW | ||
| Production Wellbore Heat Transmission Model = Ramey Model | ||
| Average Production Well Temperature Drop: 2.3 degC | ||
| Total Average Pressure Drop: 607.6 kPa | ||
| Average Injection Well Pressure Drop: 475.8 kPa | ||
| Average Reservoir Pressure Drop: 976.6 kPa | ||
| Average Production Well Pressure Drop: 2003.0 kPa | ||
| Average Buoyancy Pressure Drop: -2847.8 kPa | ||
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| ***CAPITAL COSTS (M$)*** | ||
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| Drilling and completion costs: 14.40 MUSD | ||
| Drilling and completion costs per well: 4.80 MUSD | ||
| Stimulation costs: 10.00 MUSD | ||
| Surface power plant costs: 24.69 MUSD | ||
| Field gathering system costs: 1.68 MUSD | ||
| Total surface equipment costs: 26.37 MUSD | ||
| Exploration costs: 0.00 MUSD | ||
| Total capital costs: 50.77 MUSD | ||
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| ***OPERATING AND MAINTENANCE COSTS (M$/yr)*** | ||
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| Wellfield maintenance costs: 0.43 MUSD/yr | ||
| Power plant maintenance costs: 1.19 MUSD/yr | ||
| Water costs: 0.05 MUSD/yr | ||
| Total operating and maintenance costs: 1.67 MUSD/yr | ||
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| ***SURFACE EQUIPMENT SIMULATION RESULTS*** | ||
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| Initial geofluid availability: 0.19 MW/(kg/s) | ||
| Maximum Total Electricity Generation: 9.06 MW | ||
| Average Total Electricity Generation: 9.04 MW | ||
| Minimum Total Electricity Generation: 8.90 MW | ||
| Initial Total Electricity Generation: 8.90 MW | ||
| Maximum Net Electricity Generation: 8.92 MW | ||
| Average Net Electricity Generation: 8.90 MW | ||
| Minimum Net Electricity Generation: 8.75 MW | ||
| Initial Net Electricity Generation: 8.75 MW | ||
| Average Annual Total Electricity Generation: 70.80 GWh | ||
| Average Annual Net Electricity Generation: 69.67 GWh | ||
| Initial pumping power/net installed power: 1.68 % | ||
| Average Pumping Power: 0.15 MW | ||
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| ************************************************************ | ||
| * HEATING, COOLING AND/OR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION PROFILE * | ||
| ************************************************************ | ||
| YEAR THERMAL GEOFLUID PUMP NET FIRST LAW | ||
| DRAWDOWN TEMPERATURE POWER POWER EFFICIENCY | ||
| (degC) (MW) (MW) (%) | ||
| 1 1.0000 198.18 0.1471 8.7519 15.8800 | ||
| 2 1.0045 199.07 0.1458 8.8514 15.9610 | ||
| 3 1.0054 199.25 0.1455 8.8723 15.9780 | ||
| 4 1.0059 199.35 0.1454 8.8833 15.9868 | ||
| 5 1.0062 199.41 0.1453 8.8906 15.9927 | ||
| 6 1.0064 199.46 0.1452 8.8959 15.9970 | ||
| 7 1.0066 199.50 0.1451 8.9002 16.0004 | ||
| 8 1.0068 199.53 0.1451 8.9036 16.0032 | ||
| 9 1.0069 199.56 0.1450 8.9066 16.0056 | ||
| 10 1.0070 199.58 0.1450 8.9091 16.0076 | ||
| 11 1.0071 199.60 0.1450 8.9113 16.0094 | ||
| 12 1.0072 199.62 0.1450 8.9133 16.0110 | ||
| 13 1.0073 199.63 0.1449 8.9150 16.0124 | ||
| 14 1.0074 199.65 0.1449 8.9166 16.0137 | ||
| 15 1.0074 199.66 0.1449 8.9181 16.0149 | ||
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| ******************************************************************* | ||
| * ANNUAL HEATING, COOLING AND/OR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION PROFILE * | ||
| ******************************************************************* | ||
| YEAR ELECTRICITY HEAT RESERVOIR PERCENTAGE OF | ||
| PROVIDED EXTRACTED HEAT CONTENT TOTAL HEAT MINED | ||
| (GWh/year) (GWh/year) (10^15 J) (%) | ||
| 1 69.5 436.2 116.63 1.33 | ||
| 2 69.9 437.5 115.05 2.66 | ||
| 3 70.0 437.9 113.48 4.00 | ||
| 4 70.1 438.2 111.90 5.33 | ||
| 5 70.1 438.4 110.32 6.66 | ||
| 6 70.2 438.5 108.74 8.00 | ||
| 7 70.2 438.6 107.16 9.34 | ||
| 8 70.2 438.7 105.58 10.67 | ||
| 9 70.2 438.8 104.00 12.01 | ||
| 10 70.2 438.8 102.42 13.35 | ||
| 11 70.3 438.9 100.84 14.68 | ||
| 12 70.3 438.9 99.26 16.02 | ||
| 13 70.3 439.0 97.68 17.36 | ||
| 14 70.3 439.0 96.10 18.69 | ||
| 15 63.3 395.1 94.68 19.90 | ||
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| ******************************** | ||
| * REVENUE & CASHFLOW PROFILE * | ||
| ******************************** | ||
| Year Electricity | Heat | Cooling | Carbon | Project | ||
| Since Price Ann. Rev. Cumm. Rev. | Price Ann. Rev. Cumm. Rev. | Price Ann. Rev. Cumm. Rev. | Price Ann. Rev. Cumm. Rev. | OPEX Net Rev. Net Cashflow | ||
| Start (cents/kWh)(MUSD/yr) (MUSD) |(cents/kWh) (MUSD/yr) (MUSD) |(cents/kWh) (MUSD/yr) (MUSD) |(USD/tonne) (MUSD/yr) (MUSD) |(MUSD/yr) (MUSD/yr) (MUSD) | ||
| ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | ||
| 1 0.00 -50.77 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 -50.77 -50.77 | ||
| 2 15.00 8.75 10.43 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 1.67 8.75 -42.02 | ||
| 3 15.00 8.81 20.91 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 1.67 8.81 -33.21 | ||
| 4 15.41 9.11 31.69 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 1.67 9.11 -24.10 | ||
| 5 15.81 9.40 42.77 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 1.67 9.40 -14.70 | ||
| 6 16.22 9.70 54.14 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 1.67 9.70 -5.00 | ||
| 7 16.62 9.99 65.80 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 1.67 9.99 4.98 | ||
| 8 17.03 10.28 77.75 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 1.67 10.28 15.26 | ||
| 9 17.43 10.56 89.99 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 1.67 10.56 25.83 | ||
| 10 17.84 10.85 102.51 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 1.67 10.85 36.68 | ||
| 11 18.24 11.14 115.33 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 1.67 11.14 47.82 | ||
| 12 18.65 11.43 128.43 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 1.67 11.43 59.25 | ||
| 13 19.05 11.72 141.82 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 1.67 11.72 70.97 | ||
| 14 19.46 12.00 155.50 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 1.67 12.00 82.97 | ||
| 15 19.86 12.29 169.47 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 2.50 0.00 0.00 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 | 1.67 12.29 95.26 |
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| # Case Study: Fervo Project Cape 2: Matches/approximates Fervo results pre-published 2024-09-10 at | ||
| # https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/7665/ (citation below) using available data from paper and other sources. | ||
| # Norbeck J., Gradl C., and Latimer T. 2024. | ||
| # Deployment of Enhanced Geothermal System technology leads to rapid cost reductions and performance improvements." | ||
| # https://doi.org/10.31223/X5VH8C | ||
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| Reservoir Model, 1 | ||
| Reservoir Volume Option, 1 | ||
| Reservoir Density, 2800 | ||
| Reservoir Depth, 8500 feet, -- https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2024/Fercho.pdf | ||
| Reservoir Heat Capacity, 790 | ||
| Reservoir Thermal Conductivity, 3.05 | ||
| Reservoir Porosity, 0.0118 | ||
| Reservoir Impedance, 0.01 | ||
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| Number of Fractures, 108 | ||
| Fracture Shape, 4 | ||
| Fracture Height, 300 | ||
| Fracture Width, 400 | ||
| Fracture Separation, 30 | ||
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| Number of Segments, 1 | ||
| Gradient 1, 74, -- temperature at 8500 ft: 200 degC (https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2024/Fercho.pdf); 228.89 degC @ 9824 ft (https://doi.org/10.31223/X5VH8C) | ||
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| Number of Injection Wells, 2 | ||
| Number of Production Wells, 1 | ||
| Production Flow Rate per Well, 93 | ||
| Production Well Diameter, 7 | ||
| Injection Well Diameter, 7 | ||
| Well Separation, 365 feet | ||
| Injection Temperature, 60 degC | ||
| Injection Wellbore Temperature Gain, 3 | ||
| Plant Outlet Pressure, 1000 psi | ||
| Production Wellhead Pressure, 325 psi | ||
| Ramey Production Wellbore Model, 1 | ||
| Utilization Factor, .9 | ||
| Water Loss Fraction, 0.02 | ||
| Maximum Drawdown, 1 | ||
| Ambient Temperature, 10 degC | ||
| Surface Temperature, 10 degC | ||
| End-Use Option, 1 | ||
| Plant Lifetime, 15 | ||
| Power Plant Type, 2 | ||
| Circulation Pump Efficiency, 0.80 | ||
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| Exploration Capital Cost, 0 | ||
| Well Drilling and Completion Capital Cost, 4.8, -- https://houston.innovationmap.com/fervo-energy-drilling-utah-project-2667300142.html | ||
| Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost, 10 | ||
| Economic Model, 3 | ||
| Starting Electricity Sale Price, 0.15 | ||
| Ending Electricity Sale Price, 1.00 | ||
| Electricity Escalation Rate Per Year, 0.004053223 | ||
| Electricity Escalation Start Year, 1 | ||
| Fraction of Investment in Bonds, .5 | ||
| Combined Income Tax Rate, .3 | ||
| Gross Revenue Tax Rate, 0 | ||
| Inflated Bond Interest Rate, .05 | ||
| Inflated Equity Interest Rate, .08 | ||
| Inflation Rate, .02 | ||
| Investment Tax Credit Rate, 0 | ||
| Inflation Rate During Construction, 0.05 | ||
| Property Tax Rate, 0 | ||
| Time steps per year, 10 | ||
| Maximum Temperature, 500 | ||
| Surface Plant Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.78, -- pad drilling reduces surface CAPEX by 22% https://www.resfrac.com/blog/digesting-the-bonkers-incredible-off-the-charts-spectacular-results-from-the-fervo-and-forge-enhanced-geothermal-projects | ||
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| Well Geometry Configuration, 4 | ||
| Has Nonvertical Section, True | ||
| Multilaterals Cased, True | ||
| Number of Multilateral Sections, 3 | ||
| Nonvertical Length per Multilateral Section, 4700 feet |
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