While VSITE scores are a useful metric for predicting success on the VQE, the modest correlations between VSITE scores, VQE, and VCE suggest that low VSITE performance does not necessarily predict failure.(1) Relying on less selective remediation approaches, such as arbitrary percentile thresholds, risks producing a high false-positive rate, which could impose unnecessary burdens on program directors, faculty, and residents. For example, residents who consistently demonstrate adequate progress year over year, despite scoring below the 40th percentile, may be mistakenly identified as having a knowledge gap. This misinterpretation could overlook alternative factors, such as poor test-taking skills. To address this, implementing a personalized predictive model would allow for individualized predictive intervals—target ranges for VSITE scores—throughout a resident's training. Our goal is to identify predictors of VSITE and VCE performance, develop an individualized predictive model for VSITE scores, and create a probability calculator to assess the probability of passing the VSCE.
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