silver_model.ipynb

data/2012-predicted.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+State,poll
+Arizona,-5.36244790596
+California,19.9664750649
+Colorado,2.66784319603
+Connecticut,8.9362274122
+Florida,2.17096302191
+Georgia,-8.85859171804
+Hawaii,18.584803377
+Illinois,15.4778671922
+Indiana,-7.22011474159
+Iowa,2.11176030586
+Kansas,-9.70849453844
+Maine,12.3537974257
+Maryland,16.3842951633
+Massachusetts,14.1746314895
+Michigan,8.39317008802
+Minnesota,6.74991517435
+Mississippi,-8.34658151627
+Missouri,-2.15293038253
+Montana,-7.18813752641
+Nebraska,-8.78919577642
+Nevada,5.09313003222
+New Hampshire,-1.54705616998
+New Jersey,10.6412190369
+New Mexico,10.7094653488
+New York,23.4735500439
+North Carolina,-0.466602437954
+North Dakota,-9.28719433084
+Ohio,4.22939440827
+Oregon,8.79474159474
+Pennsylvania,5.50255611546
+Rhode Island,13.2368530126
+South Carolina,-6.4647998996
+South Dakota,-1.42359773058
+Tennessee,-2.63022570014
+Texas,-2.29550733867
+Utah,-29.1702386849
+Vermont,14.8917641789
+Virginia,2.42024421684
+Washington,12.3125048739
+West Virginia,-9.53945115143
+Wisconsin,4.6277436276

data_nuevo/wsj_forecast.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+,Unnamed: 0,Forecaster,Institution,gdp_q3_2012,gdp_q4_2012
+0,0,Paul Ashworth,Capital Economics,2.0,1.5
+1,1,Nariman Behravesh,IHS Global Insight,1.5,1.6
+2,2,Richard Berner/ David Greenlaw *,Morgan Stanley,,
+3,3,Ram Bhagavatula,Combinatorics Capital,2.0,4.0
+4,4,Beth Ann Bovino *,Standard and Poor's,,
+5,5,Jay Brinkmann,Mortgage Bankers Association,1.8,1.9
+6,6,Michael Carey,Credit Agricole CIB,1.7,1.6
+7,7,Joseph Carson,AllianceBernstein,2.5,3.5
+8,8,Julia Coronado,BNP Paribas,1.4,1.6
+9,9,Mike Cosgrove,Econoclast,1.6,1.6
+10,10,Lou Crandall,Wrightson ICAP,1.8,1.8
+11,11,J. Dewey Daane,Vanderbilt University,1.5,1.5
+12,12,Douglas Duncan,Fannie Mae,1.8,1.7
+13,13,Robert Dye,Comerica Bank,2.5,2.2
+14,14,Maria Fiorini Ramirez/Joshua Shapiro,"MFR, Inc.",1.4,1.2
+15,15,Ethan Harris,Bank of America Securities- Merrill Lynch,1.3,1.0
+16,16,Maury Harris,UBS,1.5,1.8
+17,17,Jan Hatzius,"Goldman, Sachs & Co.",2.3,1.5
+18,18,Tracy Herrick,Avidbank,1.8,1.8
+19,19,Stuart Hoffman *,PNC Financial Services Group,,
+20,20,Gene Huang,FedEx Corp.,1.9,1.7
+21,21,William B. Hummer,Wintrust Wealth Management,1.7,1.9
+22,22,Bruce Kasman,JP Morgan Chase & Co.,1.5,2.0
+23,23,Joseph LaVorgna,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,2.7,2.8
+24,24,Edward Leamer/David Shulman,UCLA Anderson Forecast,1.3,1.5
+25,25,Don Leavens/Tim Gill,NEMA Business Information Services,1.7,1.7
+26,26,John Lonski,Moody's Investors Service,1.5,1.3
+27,27,Dean Maki,Barclays Capital,2.0,2.5
+28,28,Aneta Markowska *,Societe Generale,,
+29,29,Jim Meil/Arun Raha,Eaton Corp.,1.2,2.1
+30,30,Mark Nielson,MacroEcon Global Advisors,2.2,2.8
+31,31,Michael P. Niemira,International Council of Shopping Centers,2.3,2.2
+32,32,Jim O'Sullivan,High Frequency Economics,2.5,2.0
+33,33,Nicholas S. Perna,Perna Associates,2.2,1.5
+34,34,Dr. Joel Prakken/ Chris Varvares,Macroeconomic Advisers,1.5,1.4
+35,35,David Resler,Nomura Securities International,1.9,1.7
+36,36,John Ryding/Conrad DeQuadros,RDQ Economics,2.1,2.4
+37,37,John Silvia,Wells Fargo & Co.,1.6,1.7
+38,38,Allen Sinai,"Decision Economics, Inc.",2.1,2.7
+39,39,James F. Smith,Parsec Financial Management,3.8,4.8
+40,40,Sean M. Snaith,University of Central Florida,1.7,1.9
+41,41,Sung Won Sohn,California State University,1.8,1.7
+42,42,Neal Soss,CSFB,1.5,2.2
+43,43,Stephen Stanley,Pierpont Securities,1.0,2.1
+44,44,Susan M. Sterne,Economic Analysis Associates Inc.,2.2,1.9
+45,45,Diane Swonk,Mesirow Financial,1.3,1.5
+46,46,Carl Tannenbaum ,The Northern Trust,1.7,2.0
+47,47,Bart van Ark,The Conference Board,1.6,1.6
+48,48,Brian S. Wesbury/ Robert Stein,"First Trust Advisors, L.P.",2.5,3.0
+49,49,William T. Wilson,Skolkovo Institute for Emerging Market Studies,1.9,2.2
+50,50,Lawrence Yun,National Association of Realtors,1.7,2.1

pydata_env_export.env

@@ -0,0 +1,74 @@
+name: pydata
+dependencies:
+- appnope=0.1.0=py27_0
+- backports=1.0=py27_0
+- backports_abc=0.4=py27_0
+- configparser=3.5.0b2=py27_1
+- decorator=4.0.9=py27_0
+- entrypoints=0.2=py27_1
+- freetype=2.5.5=0
+- functools32=3.2.3.2=py27_0
+- get_terminal_size=1.0.0=py27_0
+- ipykernel=4.3.1=py27_0
+- ipython=4.2.0=py27_1
+- ipython_genutils=0.1.0=py27_0
+- ipywidgets=4.1.1=py27_0
+- jinja2=2.8=py27_0
+- jsonschema=2.5.1=py27_0
+- jupyter=1.0.0=py27_2
+- jupyter_client=4.2.2=py27_0
+- jupyter_console=4.1.1=py27_0
+- jupyter_core=4.1.0=py27_0
+- libpng=1.6.17=0
+- markupsafe=0.23=py27_0
+- matplotlib=1.4.3=np19py27_3
+- mistune=0.7.2=py27_1
+- mkl=11.3.3=0
+- nbconvert=4.2.0=py27_0
+- nbformat=4.0.1=py27_0
+- notebook=4.2.0=py27_0
+- numpy=1.11.0=py27_1
+- openssl=1.0.2h=0
+- pandas=0.16.2=np19py27_0
+- path.py=8.2.1=py27_0
+- patsy=0.4.1=py27_0
+- pexpect=4.0.1=py27_0
+- pickleshare=0.5=py27_0
+- pip=8.1.1=py27_1
+- ptyprocess=0.5=py27_0
+- pygments=2.1.3=py27_0
+- pyparsing=2.0.3=py27_0
+- pyqt=4.11.4=py27_1
+- python=2.7.11=0
+- python-dateutil=2.5.3=py27_0
+- python.app=1.2=py27_4
+- pytz=2016.4=py27_0
+- pyzmq=15.2.0=py27_0
+- qt=4.8.7=1
+- qtconsole=4.2.1=py27_0
+- readline=6.2=2
+- scikit-learn=0.17.1=np111py27_1
+- scipy=0.17.1=np111py27_0
+- setuptools=21.2.1=py27_0
+- simplegeneric=0.8.1=py27_0
+- singledispatch=3.4.0.3=py27_0
+- sip=4.16.9=py27_0
+- six=1.10.0=py27_0
+- sqlite=3.9.2=0
+- ssl_match_hostname=3.4.0.2=py27_1
+- statsmodels=0.6.1=np19py27_0
+- terminado=0.5=py27_1
+- tk=8.5.18=0
+- tornado=4.3=py27_0
+- traitlets=4.2.1=py27_0
+- wheel=0.29.0=py27_0
+- zlib=1.2.8=0
+- pip:
+  - backports-abc==0.4
+  - backports.shutil-get-terminal-size==1.0.0
+  - backports.ssl-match-hostname==3.4.0.2
+  - ipython-genutils==0.1.0
+  - jupyter-client==4.2.2
+  - jupyter-console==4.1.1
+  - jupyter-core==4.1.0
+