These Jupyter notebooks contain an analysis on ETH mining in 2019-2020. The purpose was to deeply analyze the potential profits in mining from this point into the future.
Exchange & Hashrate In this notebook, I try to establish an emperical relationship between the spot price and the hashrate of ETH. I found a lagging relationship that I later used for modeling.
Forecasting In this notebook, I generate simulated price action using a monte-carlo approach. Then I use my exchange/hashrate relationship to calculate corresponding simulated hashrates for those simulated prices. From there, I establish probable break even times, median monthly revenues, and price action required to cause a net operating loss.
In the end, we entered the mining business upon these findings, projecting to break even in 20 months. We were caught in the middle of the crypto boom shortly after and ended up breaking even in roughly 4-5 months! Good money was made. Looking to perform another analysis on ETH 2.0 staking to determine if we should move all of our earned capital into ETH for staking ahead of the coming supply shock (at the time of writing the projection is for Q2-3 of 2022).