Add new 2024 model for predictions

src/controllers/r-model.js

@@ -5,15 +5,20 @@ import {
 } from '../utils';
 import { RESPONSE_TYPES } from '../constants';
 
-const rPredictionPath = path.resolve(__dirname, '../r-scripts/SPB-Predictions.v02-DALI.R');
 const rCalculatedFieldsPath = path.resolve(__dirname, '../r-scripts/Calculated-Outcome-Fields.R');
 
+const rPredictionPaths = {
+  2018: path.resolve(__dirname, '../r-scripts/SPB-Predictions.v02-DALI.R'),
+  2024: path.resolve(__dirname, '../r-scripts/SPB-Predictions.v2.0.R'),
+};
+
 /**
  * runs the r model by feeding it an array of entries
  * @param {Array} array the data
+ * @param {Number} modelVersion version of the model to use in predictions
  * @returns {Promise<Array>} finished predictions
  */
-export const runModel = (array) => {
+export const runModel = (array, modelVersion) => {
   const data = array.map((doc) => {
     const {
       cleridst1,
@@ -53,7 +58,7 @@ export const runModel = (array) => {
 
   if (!data.length) return data;
 
-  return callRScript(rPredictionPath, { data });
+  return callRScript(rPredictionPaths[modelVersion], { data });
 };
 
 /**

src/r-scripts/SPB-Predictions.v2.0.R

@@ -0,0 +1,84 @@
+# Predictions-for-SPBpredict.com_v2.0.R
+# Script to make predictions based on hard-coded coefficients,
+# requiring these variables as input:
+#	SPB: SPB per trap per two weeks during spring trapping (year t)
+#	spotst1: beetle spots in forest last year (t-1)
+#	endobrev: 0 or 1 for endobrevicomin absent or present in SPB traps
+
+# revised by Matt on 16 Sept 2023 to match new ZIP model based on n = 3282 observations. 
+
+attach(input[[1]]) # takes single parameter, called as callRScript(thisfilepath, { data: [{ SPB, cleridst1, spotst1, spotst2, endobrev }] }) from node.js
+# this script DOES NOT check 'data' for validity; the caller is responsible.
+attach(data)
+
+# Coefficients below were estimated for a zero-inflated Poisson model fit to historical data using pscl package in R.
+# These coefficients, and means and SDs that follow, remain the same for all predictions.
+
+# coefficients for binomial model; predicts pi
+b0_binom = 1.03486      # intercept
+b1_binom = -1.22314    # SPB this year
+b3_binom = -1.02526   # spots last year
+
+# coefficients for count model; predicts mu
+b0_count = 0.63780     # intercept
+b1_count = 0.31115    # SPB this year
+b3_count = 0.21979     # spots last year
+
+# means and SDs of the log-transformed data used to fit the model. Used for centering and standardized the log transformed input data
+SPB_mean = 3.303548
+SPB_SD = 3.096779
+spotst1_mean = 1.170344
+spotst1_SD = 1.987272
+
+# Prepare input data for model calculations
+adjusted_SPB=SPB
+adjusted_SPB[endobrev==1] = adjusted_SPB[endobrev==1]/10 # mulitply SPB by 10 if no endobrevicomin
+
+# log transformations
+lnSPB=log(adjusted_SPB+1)                
+lnspotst1=log(spotst1+1)
+
+# center and standardize log transformed values
+SPB_adj=(lnSPB-SPB_mean)/SPB_SD                           
+spotst1_adj=(lnspotst1-spotst1_mean)/spotst1_SD
+
+# Calculate mu and pi
+pi_pre = b0_binom+b1_binom*SPB_adj+b3_binom*spotst1_adj
+mu_pre = b0_count+b1_count*SPB_adj+b3_count*spotst1_adj
+pi=exp(pi_pre)/(1+exp(pi_pre))
+mu=exp(mu_pre)
+expSpots_if_spots=exp(mu)-1
+
+Z=dpois(0, mu)         # probability of 0 spots from count model, given mu
+ProbSpots.GT.0    = 1-(pi+(1-pi)*Z)                             # probability of > 0 spots considering both binomial and count model
+ProbSpots.GT.0    = 1-(pi+(1-pi)*ppois(0,mu,lower.tail=TRUE))    # probability of > 0 spots considering both binomial and count model
+ProbSpots.GT.18   = 1-(pi+(1-pi)*ppois(2,mu,lower.tail=TRUE))    # probability of > 18 spots considering both binomial and count model
+ProbSpots.GT.53   = 1-(pi+(1-pi)*ppois(3,mu,lower.tail=TRUE))    # probability of > 53 spots considering both binomial and count model
+ProbSpots.GT.147  = 1-(pi+(1-pi)*ppois(4,mu,lower.tail=TRUE))    # probability of > 147 spots considering both binomial and count model
+ProbSpots.GT.402 = 1-(pi+(1-pi)*ppois(5,mu,lower.tail=TRUE))    # probability of > 1095 spots considering both binomial and count model
+ProbSpots.GT.1095 = 1-(pi+(1-pi)*ppois(6,mu,lower.tail=TRUE))    # probability of > 2979 spots considering both binomial and count model
+
+# Create data frame for output
+preds=data.frame(
+  expSpots_if_spots,
+  ProbSpots.GT.0,
+  ProbSpots.GT.18,
+  ProbSpots.GT.53,
+  ProbSpots.GT.147,
+  ProbSpots.GT.402,
+  ProbSpots.GT.1095)
+
+# column renaming
+colnames(preds) = c(
+    "expSpotsIfOutbreak",
+    "probSpotsGT0",
+    "probSpotsGT20",
+    "probSpotsGT50",
+    "probSpotsGT150",
+    "probSpotsGT400",
+    "probSpotsGT1000"
+)
+
+preds # returns to caller
+
+

src/routers/r-model.js

@@ -19,6 +19,7 @@ rModelRouter.route('/')
       SPB,
       spotst1,
       spotst2,
+      modelVersion,
     } = req.query;
 
     const input = [{
@@ -30,7 +31,7 @@ rModelRouter.route('/')
     }];
 
     try {
-      const result = await rModel.runModel(input);
+      const result = await rModel.runModel(input, modelVersion);
 
       res.send(generateResponse(RESPONSE_TYPES.SUCCESS, result[0]));
     } catch (error) {

src/utils/pipeline.js

@@ -259,7 +259,7 @@ export const indicatorGeneratorCreator = (location, Model, upsertOp) => async (f
  * @param {Function} upsertOp an upsert operation to do bulkwrites with
  * @returns {(filter: Object) => Promise}
  */
-export const predictionGeneratorCreator = (location, ScriptRunner, Model, upsertOp) => async (filter = {}) => {
+export const predictionGeneratorCreator = (location, ScriptRunner, Model, upsertOp, modelVersion) => async (filter = {}) => {
   const data = await Model.find({
     ...filter,
     isValidForPrediction: 1,
@@ -299,7 +299,7 @@ export const predictionGeneratorCreator = (location, ScriptRunner, Model, upsert
 
   // remove missing entries
   const inputs = rawInputs.filter((obj) => !!obj);
-  const allPredictions = await ScriptRunner(inputs);
+  const allPredictions = await ScriptRunner(inputs, modelVersion);
 
   // reformat and insert corresponding predictions object at the same index
   const updatedData = inputs.map((doc, index) => {