Skip to content

Figure and data generation for Chapter 7 of the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group 1 (plus assorted other contributions)

License

Notifications You must be signed in to change notification settings

chrisroadmap/ar6

Repository files navigation

IPCC AR6 WG1 Chapter 7 and friends multi-purpose repository

DOI

In this repository is the code, data and figures that I (Chris Smith) was responsible for creating. Many of the figures and datasets relate to Chapter 7 and the Chapter 7 Supplementary Material, but there are other datasets used in other chapters (e.g. the effective radiative forcing time series used in fig. 2.10; attribution of future warming for SPM fig. 4).

Included here also is the calibration and constraining of the FaIRv1.6.2 simple climate model that will later get used by the IPCC's Working Group 3 to determine the climate response to integrated assessment modelling pathways.

Key output datasets

For *.csv files, you can click the "Raw" button to view a plain text version of each file. Alternatively, clone the repo to download all of the files.

Figure plotting code locations

Figure Code Authors
Box 7.2 Fig 1 notebooks/350_chapter7_box7.2_fig1.ipynb Matthew Palmer, Chris Smith
7.3 notebooks/300_chapter7_fig7.3.ipynb Matthew Palmer, Chris Smith
7.4 notebooks/270_chapter7_fig7.4.ipynb Chris Smith
7.5 notebooks/060_chapter7_fig7.5_SPM_fig15.ipynb Chris Smith
7.6 notebooks/100_chapter7_fig7.6.ipynb Chris Smith
7.7 notebooks/220_chapter7_fig7.7.ipynb Chris Smith
7.8 notebooks/230_chapter7_fig7.8.ipynb Chris Smith
7.10 https://github.com/mzelinka/AR6_figure
DOI
Mark Zelinka
7.11 https://github.com/danlunt1976/ipcc_ar6/blob/master/nonlin/nonlin_fgd.pro Dan Lunt
7.13 https://github.com/danlunt1976/ipcc_ar6/blob/master/patterns/fgd/plot_all_fgd.pro Dan Lunt
7.16 notebooks/020_chapter7_fig7.16.ipynb Chris Smith, Masa Watanabe
7.17 contributed/fig7.17/tcr_fgd.f Masa Watanabe
7.18 notebooks/330_chapter7_fig7.18.ipynb Piers Forster, Chris Smith
7.19 https://github.com/danlunt1976/ipcc_ar6/blob/master/patterns/fgd/plot_all_fgd.pro Dan Lunt
7.21 notebooks/320_chapter7_fig7.21.ipynb Bill Collins, Chris Smith
7.22 notebooks/310_chapter7_fig7.22.ipynb Piers Forster, Michelle Cain, Chris Smith
FAQ 7.3 Fig 1 contributed/faq7.3_fig1/Redo_Grose_figure.py Sophie Berger
7.SM.1 notebooks/115_chapter7_fig7.SM.1.ipynb Chris Smith

Reproduction

The figures above where I am one of the listed authors can be reproduced. Data and figures are produced by the Jupyter Notebooks that live inside the notebooks directory. Also listed are external GitHub repositories and locations within the contributed directory where code for figures have been supplied by other authors. These are provided "as-is" and are not guaranteed to be reproducible within this environment. For external GitHub locations, check out the relevant repository READMEs.

Within my processing chain, every notebook is prefixed by a number. To reproduce all results in the chapter, the notebooks should be run in numerical order, because some later things depend on earlier things (historical temperature attribution requires a constrained ensemble of the two layer climate model, which relies on the generation of the radiative forcing time series). This being said, most notebooks should run standalone, as input data is provided where the datasets are small enough (see below).

Installation

I recommend using a virtual environment such as venv or conda. This repository was built inside a conda environment using python 3.7.

First, set up your virtual environment. For example, if using conda:

$ conda create -n ar6-wg1-ch7 python=3.7
$ conda activate ar6-wg1-ch7

Once this is done, clone the repo from GitHub and then run

(ar6-wg1-ch7) $ cd ar6  # or if you have used the IPCC-WG1 fork, this will be "Chapter-7"
(ar6-wg1-ch7) $ pip install -e .

This will ensure that all required dependencies are installed inside the virtual environment named ar6-wg1-ch7.

Input datasets

Small ancillary datasets that are ingested by the code are included in this repository (data_input). TODO: #17

Most large input ancillary datasets are automatically downloaded when required into data_input_large, with two exceptions where public APIs were not found to be available. The following files should be downloaded and placed into the data_input_large directory:

Glossac v2.0 stratospheric aerosol optical depth time series

eVolv v3 stratospheric optical depth, 500 BCE to 1900 CE

Output datasets

Small output datasets of general interest that are generated by the code, such as the ERF time series, are included in the repository (data_output).

Large datasets generated by the code (e.g. probablistic time series) are not included in the GitHub repository due to their size. They should be exactly reproducible thanks to fixed random seeds and live in data_output_large. The most likely reason for a notebook not running out of the box is that it requires a dataset that lives in data_output_large and generated by an earlier notebook.

Contributed code

In the contributed directory is code that I did not produce or co-produce that is used in Chapter 7 figures, this being the most appropriate place to put it. A number of Chapter 7 figures are externally hosted on repositories belonging to other authors, which have been linked above.

Playlist

I often work listening to music, and every notebook has an associated theme song. Some are related to the contents of the notebook, but most are just a reflection of what I was listening to at the time or what mood I was in. Hopefully you might discover something new.

Anything broken?

This notebook was pieced together in stages, over a period of nearly two years, in the face of conflicting priorities and changing assessments. It's highly likely that one or two links in the chain are broken. Please raise an issue if something isn't working.

Credits

  • Matt Palmer: box 7.2 figure 1 and figure 7.3
  • Mark Zelinka: figure 7.10 (externally hosted)
  • Dan Lunt: figures 7.11, 7.13, 7.19 (externally hosted)
  • Masa Watanabe: figure 7.17 (contributed)
  • Piers Forster: figures 7.18 and 7.22
  • Bill Collins: figure 7.21, greenhouse gas metrics
  • Michelle Cain: figure 7.22
  • Sophie Berger: figure 1, FAQ 7.3 (contributed)
  • Nick Leach: FaIR calibrations for the carbon cycle
  • Glen Harris and Mark Ringer for the two layer climate model in src/ar6/twolayermodel, and the CMIP6 tunings
  • Brad Hall: greenhouse gas concentrations

If I forgot you, please raise an issue.

Suggested citations

This repository: Smith C.J., P.M. Forster, S. Berger, W. Collins, B. Hall, D. Lunt, M.D. Palmer, M. Watanabe, M. Cain, G. Harris, N.J. Leach, M. Ringer, M. Zelinka, 2021. Figure and data generation for Chapter 7 of the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group 1 (plus assorted other contributions). Version 1.0. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5211357

Figure 7.10: Zelinka, M., 2021. mzelinka/AR6_figure: Aug 18, 2021 Release (v1.0.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5218854

Please also consider citing, if appropriate:

Chapter 7: Forster, P., T. Storelvmo, K. Armour, W. Collins, J. L. Dufresne, D. Frame, D. J. Lunt, T. Mauritsen, M. D. Palmer, M. Watanabe, M. Wild, H. Zhang, 2021, The Earth’s Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 923–1054, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.009.

Chapter 7 Supplementary Material: Smith, C., Z.R.J. Nicholls, K. Armour, W. Collins, P. Forster, M. Meinshausen, M. D. Palmer, M. Watanabe, 2021, The Earth’s Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity Supplementary Material. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Available from https://ipcc.ch/static/ar6/wg1.

Annex III (GHG concentrations, radiative forcing time series): IPCC, 2021: Annex III: Tables of historical and projected well-mixed greenhouse gas mixing ratios and effective radiative forcing of all climate forcers [Dentener F. J., B. Hall, C. Smith (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press.

About

Figure and data generation for Chapter 7 of the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group 1 (plus assorted other contributions)

Resources

License

Stars

Watchers

Forks

Releases

No releases published

Packages

No packages published

Languages