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Methodology FAQ (#87)
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* Methodology FAQ

* Add link to main FAQ

* Increase margin
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@asibs
asibs authored Mar 23, 2024
1 parent a669c99 commit 110942a
Showing 1 changed file with 148 additions and 4 deletions.
152 changes: 148 additions & 4 deletions app/methodology/page.tsx
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ import Link from "next/link";
import Image from "next/image";

import flowChart from "@/assets/methodology-flow-chart.png";
import ToggleText from "@/components/ToggleText";

export default function MethodologyPage() {
return (
Expand All @@ -18,7 +19,7 @@ export default function MethodologyPage() {
<main>
<section className="section-light">
<Container>
<Row className="mb-4">
<Row className="mb-5">
<Col>
<h2>Our Objectives</h2>
<ol className="fs-4 fw-bold">
Expand All @@ -39,7 +40,7 @@ export default function MethodologyPage() {
</Col>
</Row>

<Row className="mb-4">
<Row className="mb-5">
<Col>
<h2>Our Methodology</h2>
<p className="fw-bold mt-3">
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -166,10 +167,153 @@ export default function MethodologyPage() {
</Col>
</Row>

<Row className="mb-4">
<Row className="mb-5">
<Col>
<h2>Methodology FAQ</h2>
<p>TODO</p>
<ToggleText
id="2019-results"
chevronSize="fs-4"
title={
<h4>Why aren&apos;t you using the actual 2019 results?</h4>
}
content={
<>
<p>
<a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Periodic_Review_of_Westminster_constituencies"
target="_blank"
rel="noreferrer"
>
Westminster constituency boundaries were reviewed in
2023
</a>
, and therefore many constituencies now have new
geographic boundaries. Some constituencies have been
abolished entirely and some new constituencies have been
created.
</p>
<p>
The 2019 general election was fought using the old
constituencies and boundaries, and these results cannot
be easily mapped onto the new constituency boundaries.
However,{" "}
<a
href="https://interactive.news.sky.com/2024/doc/estimates-2019-general-election-result-new-constituencies-explainer.pdf"
target="_blank"
rel="noreferrer"
>
Sky &amp; the BBC commissioned research
</a>{" "}
which estimates the vote share each party would have
achieved in 2019 using the new constituency boundaries.
We use these <em>implied</em> 2019 results in our
methodology (see above).
</p>
</>
}
/>
<ToggleText
id="byelection-results"
chevronSize="fs-4"
title={<h4>Why aren&apos;t you using byelection results?</h4>}
content={
<>
<p>
Byelections tend to have low turnout compared to general
elections, and parties <em>may</em> be able to dedicate
more resources to fighting a byelection campaign,
because they&amp;re only fighting byelections in a small
number of constituencies at any one time.
</p>
<p>
Byelections will still also be using the old
constituency boundaries, which means byelection results
can be difficult to map directly onto the constituency
boundaries which the 2024 election will be fought on.
</p>
<p>
In constituencies where we manually override our
automated advice, we will consider any relevant
byelection results.
</p>
</>
}
/>
<ToggleText
id="local-results"
chevronSize="fs-4"
title={
<h4>Why aren&apos;t you using council election results?</h4>
}
content={
<>
<p>
Council elections tend to have low turnout compared to
general elections, and the issues they are fought on can
be significantly different from those which are the
focus in general elections.
</p>
<p>
In constituencies where we manually override our
automated advice, we will consider any relevant council
election results.
</p>
</>
}
/>
<ToggleText
id="manual-overrides"
chevronSize="fs-4"
title={
<h4>
Why don&apos;t your tactical voting recommendations match
your methodology?
</h4>
}
content={
<>
<p>
We use the same methodology - described in detail above
- on all seats in England, Scotland &amp; Wales. In some
cases, this methodology cannot give a tactical vote
recommendation, because it&apos;s not clear which
progressive party is best placed to stop the tories.
</p>
<p>
In these constituencies, we will manually make a
recommendation. This may happen close to the election
day, so that we can consider the most up-to-date
information, and we can make the most informed &amp;
accurate recommendation possible. When making
recommendations manually, we consider the data used by
our automated methodology - implied 2019 results, recent
MRPs, target seat lists - as well as other data such as
westminster byelections, local council elections in the
area, etc.
</p>
<p>
There may be other situations where we need to manually
override our automated methodology, such as if the
candidate for the recommended party stands aside.
</p>
<p>
When manually making a recommendation, we always make
this clear on the website and in our{" "}
<Link href="/data">open data</Link>, and we cite the
data we have used to come to our recommendation.
</p>
</>
}
/>
</Col>
</Row>

<Row className="mb-5">
<Col>
<p>
For questions not related to our methodology, please see our
main <Link href="/faq">FAQ page</Link>.
</p>
</Col>
</Row>
</Container>
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