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Complexity Measures for Process Predictive Monitoring

Writer: Yeonsu Kim
Date: 2023-08-28

Introduction

This repository contains the code and resources for measuring the complexity of business process data used in process predictive monitoring. The project aims to provide tools and methods to evaluate the complexity of data, which can significantly impact the performance of predictive monitoring systems.

Predictive Process Monitoring (PPM) aims at creating predictive models of aspects of interest of business process execution using historical data logged in event logs. Anticipating the expected performance of a PPM model can be crucial for model owners, for instance, to decide whether or not to embark on the model development in the first place. However, this is hard to do in practice. Each log is generated by a different business process and may or not contain attributes that effectively discriminate across the labels to be predicted. In this work, we investigate the extent to which the complexity measures developed in the machine learning (ML) literature for traditional classification problems can be used to anticipate the model performance in the specific PPM use case of outcome prediction. We found, as we could expect, a negative correlation between the encoded event log complexity and the model performance. This correlation is significant for a specific set of complexity measures when considering the model accuracy as a performance measure.

Visuals

Below are some visual representations related to the complexity measures:

Complexity Measure 1

Complexity Measure 2

Complexity Measure 3

Complexity Measure 4

Complexity Measure 5

Folders

📦Complexity_measures_for_PPM-1
┣ 📂Complexity
 ┃ ┣ 📜complexity_agg12.ipynb
 ┃ ┣ 📜complexity_agg15.ipynb
 ┃ ┣ 📜complexity_agg17.ipynb
 ┃ ┣ 📜complexity_excat12.ipynb
 ┃ ┣ 📜complexity_excat15.ipynb
 ┃ ┣ 📜complexity_excat17.ipynb
 ┃ ┣ 📜complexity_index12.ipynb
 ┃ ┣ 📜complexity_index15.ipynb
 ┃ ┗ 📜complexity_index17.ipynb
 ┣ 📂ML
 ┃ ┣ 📜acc_agg12.ipynb
 ┃ ┣ 📜acc_agg15.ipynb
 ┃ ┣ 📜acc_agg17.ipynb
 ┃ ┣ 📜acc_excat12.ipynb
 ┃ ┣ 📜acc_excat15.ipynb
 ┃ ┣ 📜acc_excat17.ipynb
 ┃ ┣ 📜acc_index12.ipynb
 ┃ ┣ 📜acc_index15.ipynb
 ┃ ┗ 📜acc_index17.ipynb
 ┣ 📜image copy 2.png
 ┣ 📜image copy 3.png
 ┣ 📜image copy 4.png
 ┣ 📜image copy.png
 ┣ 📜image.png
 ┗ 📜README.md

References

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[2] A. Augusto, J. Mendling, M. Vidgof, and B. Wurm. The connection between process complexity of event sequences and models discovered by process mining. Information Sciences, 598:196–215, 2022.

[3] C. O. Back, S. Debois, and T. Slaats. Entropy as a measure of log variability. Journal on Data Semantics, 8:129–156, 2019.

[4] V. H. Barella, L. P. Garcia, M. P. de Souto, A. C. Lorena, and A. de Carvalho. Data complexity measures for imbalanced classification tasks. In 2018 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN), pages 1–8. IEEE, 2018.

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[14] L. Morán-Fernández, V. Bolón-Canedo, and A. Alonso-Betanzos. Can classification performance be predicted by complexity measures? A study using microarray data. Knowledge and Information Systems, 51:1067–1090, 2017.

[15] F. Z. Okwonu, B. L. Asaju, and F. I. Arunaye. Breakdown analysis of Pearson correlation coefficient and robust correlation methods. In IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering, volume 917, page 012065. IOP Publishing, 2020.

[16] A. Rivolli, L. P. Garcia, C. Soares, J. Vanschoren, and A. C. de Carvalho. Meta-features for meta-learning. Knowledge-Based Systems, 240:108101, 2022.

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[18] B. A. Tama, M. Comuzzi, and J. Ko. An empirical investigation of different classifiers, encoding, and ensemble schemes for next event prediction using business process event logs. ACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology (TIST), 11(6):1–34, 2020.

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