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The success of a project is unrelated to it's designer/creator forecast. Throughout your life, you will pass on great opportunities and invest time, effort and resources on projects that will fail.
You can't be sure of the success of a project beforehand. What you can be sure, is that, even if the project is a winner, you will need energy and commitment.
Once you realize you can't decide on which projects to invest in based on guessing how it will perform, there is only one other thing to rely on. And that, is fun.
No one on earth can guarantee you that your project is not going to fail. And you know what, your life is ending each passing minute. If you can't be sure about success, why not be sure about fun?
You still want to have success. All successful projects involve solving a problem in a better way for a group of people. If you want real success, be sure to be trying to solve a real problem.
There are lots of problems that need solving out there. Focus on the problems, and finding solutions to them, not on making money.
Start with the problem that feels most fun. Battle that problem for as long as you're having fun. You can't compete with someone that is having more fun than you, that someone is always going to have more energy than you, no matter how good you are, if you don't love what you're doing, someone that does is going to quickly overtake you. So why work on a boring problem?
What are you doing? Are you trying to solve a problem? Are you having fun?