LAYING SEQUENCE AND OCEANOGRAPHIC FACTORS AFFECT EGG SIZE IN SCRIPPS’S MURRELETS SYNTHLIBORAMPHUS SCRIPPSI AT SANTA BARBARA ISLAND

Abstract

Egg size is an important avian life history parameter, with larger eggs indicating greater investment of resources in the chick. Prey availability can affect such investment. We investigated the effects of oceanographic conditions and laying sequence on Scripps’s Murrelet Synthliboramphus scrippsi egg size at Santa Barbara Island, California during 2009-2017. We evaluated oceanographic covariates characterizing marine productivity for their effect on egg size, including large-scale oceanographic indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index. We also evaluated a larval anchovy catch-per-unit-effort (ANCHL) index and the Biologically Effective Upwelling Transport Index (BEUTI) as region-wide indices, and sea surface temperature (SST) as a local index. We evaluated oceanographic conditions during the entire year and during the breeding season only and considered lagged effects. Our results generally ran counter to our hypothesis that increased ocean productivity should increase egg size. Based on Akaike’s Information Criterion, the four top-ranked models provided support for an association between larger eggs and conditions indicative of lower oceanographic productivity, including lower values of BEUTI and NPGO, and higher values of ONI, PDO, and SST. The only result that supported our hypothesis was a positive relationship between ANCHL and egg size, although the 95% confidence interval for the effect included 0. The strongest relationship detected was between laying sequence and egg size, as second eggs were considerably larger than first eggs. Our results indicate substantial complexity in the relationship between ocean productivity and seabird demography. A better understanding of how ocean productivity affects seabird breeding outcomes through multiple mechanisms will help improve predictions of how seabirds will respond to changing ocean conditions.

Citation

TODD ZARAGOZA, M.I., DuVALL, A.J., HOWARD, J.A., MAZURKIEWICZ, D.M. & CONVERSE, S.J. XXXX. Laying sequence and oceanographic factors affect egg size in Scripps’s Murrelets Synthliboramphus scrippsi at Santa Barbara Island. Marine Ornithology XX: XX-XX.

Code

1. SCMU_covariates.Rmd: This RMarkdown file contains code to compile and clean covariate data and check for correlated predictors, as well as code to run single-model selection on the temporal forms of covariate data. The knitted PDF is also included.
2. SCMU_model.Rmd: This RMarkdown file contains contain code for likelihood ratio tests to test inclusion of random effects, model selection, and model diagnostics. The knitted PDF is also included.

Data

Datasets used in this project are all found in the data folder:

1. SCMU_egg_data.csv: Formatted data to run the linear-mixed model. See manuscript for detailed description of data.
2. The covariates sub folder contains .csv files of oceanographic indices from NOAA’S California Current Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Program.

Session Info

R version 4.2.2 (2022-10-31 ucrt)
Platform: x86_64-w64-mingw32/x64 (64-bit)
Running under: Windows 10 x64 (build 22000)