Allow for alternative policy baselines

examples/run_og_usa_current_policy_baseline.py

@@ -0,0 +1,181 @@
+import multiprocessing
+from distributed import Client
+import os
+import requests
+import json
+import time
+from taxcalc import Calculator
+from ogusa.calibrate import Calibration
+from ogcore.parameters import Specifications
+from ogcore import output_tables as ot
+from ogcore import output_plots as op
+from ogcore.execute import runner
+from ogcore.utils import safe_read_pickle
+
+
+def main():
+    # Define parameters to use for multiprocessing
+    num_workers = min(multiprocessing.cpu_count(), 7)
+    client = Client(n_workers=num_workers, threads_per_worker=1)
+    print("Number of workers = ", num_workers)
+
+    # Directories to save data
+    CUR_DIR = os.path.dirname(os.path.realpath(__file__))
+    base_dir = os.path.join(CUR_DIR, "OG-USA-CP-Example", "OUTPUT_BASELINE")
+    reform_dir = os.path.join(CUR_DIR, "OG-USA-CP-Example", "OUTPUT_REFORM")
+
+    """
+    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
+    Run baseline policy
+    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
+    """
+    # Set up baseline parameterization
+    p = Specifications(
+        baseline=True,
+        num_workers=num_workers,
+        baseline_dir=base_dir,
+        output_base=base_dir,
+    )
+    # Update parameters for baseline from default json file
+    p.update_specifications(
+        json.load(
+            open(
+                os.path.join(
+                    CUR_DIR, "..", "ogusa", "ogusa_default_parameters.json"
+                )
+            )
+        )
+    )
+    p.tax_func_type = "GS"
+    # get current policy JSON file
+    base_url = (
+        "github://PSLmodels:Tax-Calculator@master/taxcalc/"
+        + "reforms/ext.json"
+    )
+    ref = Calculator.read_json_param_objects(base_url, None)
+    iit_baseline = ref["policy"]
+    c = Calibration(
+        p,
+        estimate_tax_functions=True,
+        iit_baseline=iit_baseline,
+        client=client,
+    )
+    # close and delete client bc cache is too large
+    client.close()
+    del client
+    client = Client(n_workers=num_workers, threads_per_worker=1)
+    d = c.get_dict()
+    # # additional parameters to change
+    updated_params = {
+        "etr_params": d["etr_params"],
+        "mtrx_params": d["mtrx_params"],
+        "mtry_params": d["mtry_params"],
+        "mean_income_data": d["mean_income_data"],
+        "frac_tax_payroll": d["frac_tax_payroll"],
+    }
+    p.update_specifications(updated_params)
+    # Run model
+    start_time = time.time()
+    runner(p, time_path=True, client=client)
+    print("run time = ", time.time() - start_time)
+
+    """
+    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
+    Run reform policy
+    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
+    """
+    # Grab a reform JSON file already in Tax-Calculator
+    # In this example the 'reform' is a change to 2017 law
+    reform_url = (
+        "github://PSLmodels:Tax-Calculator@master/taxcalc/"
+        + "reforms/2017_law.json"
+    )
+    ref = Calculator.read_json_param_objects(reform_url, None)
+    iit_reform = ref["policy"]
+
+    # create new Specifications object for reform simulation
+    p2 = Specifications(
+        baseline=False,
+        num_workers=num_workers,
+        baseline_dir=base_dir,
+        output_base=reform_dir,
+    )
+    # Update parameters for baseline from default json file
+    p2.update_specifications(
+        json.load(
+            open(
+                os.path.join(
+                    CUR_DIR, "..", "ogusa", "ogusa_default_parameters.json"
+                )
+            )
+        )
+    )
+    p2.tax_func_type = "GS"
+    # Use calibration class to estimate reform tax functions from
+    # Tax-Calculator, specifying reform for Tax-Calculator in iit_reform
+    c2 = Calibration(
+        p2,
+        iit_baseline=iit_baseline,
+        iit_reform=iit_reform,
+        estimate_tax_functions=True,
+        client=client,
+    )
+    # close and delete client bc cache is too large
+    client.close()
+    del client
+    client = Client(n_workers=num_workers, threads_per_worker=1)
+    # update tax function parameters in Specifications Object
+    d = c2.get_dict()
+    # # additional parameters to change
+    updated_params = {
+        "cit_rate": [[0.35]],
+        "etr_params": d["etr_params"],
+        "mtrx_params": d["mtrx_params"],
+        "mtry_params": d["mtry_params"],
+        "mean_income_data": d["mean_income_data"],
+        "frac_tax_payroll": d["frac_tax_payroll"],
+    }
+    p2.update_specifications(updated_params)
+    # Run model
+    start_time = time.time()
+    runner(p2, time_path=True, client=client)
+    print("run time = ", time.time() - start_time)
+    client.close()
+
+    """
+    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
+    Save some results of simulations
+    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
+    """
+    base_tpi = safe_read_pickle(os.path.join(base_dir, "TPI", "TPI_vars.pkl"))
+    base_params = safe_read_pickle(os.path.join(base_dir, "model_params.pkl"))
+    reform_tpi = safe_read_pickle(
+        os.path.join(reform_dir, "TPI", "TPI_vars.pkl")
+    )
+    reform_params = safe_read_pickle(
+        os.path.join(reform_dir, "model_params.pkl")
+    )
+    ans = ot.macro_table(
+        base_tpi,
+        base_params,
+        reform_tpi=reform_tpi,
+        reform_params=reform_params,
+        var_list=["Y", "C", "K", "L", "r", "w"],
+        output_type="pct_diff",
+        num_years=10,
+        start_year=base_params.start_year,
+    )
+
+    # create plots of output
+    op.plot_all(
+        base_dir, reform_dir, os.path.join(CUR_DIR, "OG-USA_example_plots")
+    )
+
+    print("Percentage changes in aggregates:", ans)
+    # save percentage change output to csv file
+    ans.to_csv("ogusa_example_output.csv")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    # execute only if run as a script
+    main()

ogusa/calibrate.py

@@ -19,12 +19,34 @@ def __init__(
         estimate_chi_n=False,
         estimate_pop=False,
         tax_func_path=None,
+        iit_baseline=None,
         iit_reform={},
         guid="",
         data="cps",
         client=None,
         num_workers=1,
     ):
+        """
+        Constructor for the Calibration class.  This class is used to find
+        parameter values for the OG-USA model.
+
+        Args:
+            p (OGUSA Parameters object): parameters object
+            estimate_tax_functions (bool): whether to estimate tax functions
+            estimate_beta (bool): whether to estimate beta
+            estimate_chi_n (bool): whether to estimate chi_n
+            estimate_pop (bool): whether to estimate population
+            tax_func_path (str): path to tax function parameters
+            iit_baseline (dict): baseline policy to use
+            iit_reform (dict): reform tax parameters
+            guid (str): id for tax function parameters
+            data (str): data source for microsimulation model
+            client (Dask client object): client
+            num_workers (int): number of workers for Dask client
+
+        Returns:
+            Calibration class object instance
+        """
         self.estimate_tax_functions = estimate_tax_functions
         self.estimate_beta = estimate_beta
         self.estimate_chi_n = estimate_chi_n
@@ -36,6 +58,7 @@ def __init__(
                 run_micro = True
             self.tax_function_params = self.get_tax_function_parameters(
                 p,
+                iit_baseline,
                 iit_reform,
                 guid,
                 data,
@@ -104,6 +127,7 @@ def __init__(
     def get_tax_function_parameters(
         self,
         p,
+        iit_baseline=None,
         iit_reform={},
         guid="",
         data="",
@@ -117,7 +141,13 @@ def get_tax_function_parameters(
         parameters from microsimulation model output.
 
         Args:
+            p (OG-Core Parameters object): parameters object
+            iit_baseline (dict): baseline policy to use
+            iit_reform (dict): reform tax parameters
+            guid (string): id for tax function parameters
+            data (string): data source for microsimulation model
             client (Dask client object): client
+            num_workers (int): number of workers for Dask client
             run_micro (bool): whether to estimate parameters from
                 microsimulation model
             tax_func_path (string): path where find or save tax
@@ -152,7 +182,8 @@ def get_tax_function_parameters(
             micro_data, taxcalc_version = get_micro_data.get_data(
                 baseline=p.baseline,
                 start_year=p.start_year,
-                reform=iit_reform,
+                iit_baseline=iit_baseline,
+                iit_reform=iit_reform,
                 data=data,
                 path=p.output_base,
                 client=client,
@@ -166,12 +197,9 @@ def get_tax_function_parameters(
                 p.starting_age,
                 p.ending_age,
                 start_year=p.start_year,
-                baseline=p.baseline,
                 analytical_mtrs=p.analytical_mtrs,
                 tax_func_type=p.tax_func_type,
                 age_specific=p.age_specific,
-                reform=iit_reform,
-                data=data,
                 client=client,
                 num_workers=num_workers,
                 tax_func_path=tax_func_path,

ogusa/get_micro_data.py

@@ -22,7 +22,8 @@
 def get_calculator(
     baseline,
     calculator_start_year,
-    reform=None,
+    iit_baseline=None,
+    iit_reform=None,
     data=None,
     gfactors=None,
     weights=None,
@@ -72,17 +73,21 @@ def get_calculator(
         records1 = Records()  # pragma: no cover
 
     if baseline:
-        if not reform:
+        if iit_baseline is None:
             print("Running current law policy baseline")
         else:
-            print("Baseline policy is: ", reform)
+            print("Baseline policy is: ", iit_baseline)
+            policy1.implement_reform(iit_baseline)
     else:
-        if not reform:
+        if not iit_reform:
             print("Running with current law as reform")
         else:
-            print("Reform policy is: ", reform)
-            print("TYPE", type(reform))
-    policy1.implement_reform(reform)
+            print("Reform policy is: ", iit_reform)
+            if (
+                iit_baseline is not None
+            ):  # if alt baseline, stack reform on that
+                policy1.implement_reform(iit_baseline)
+            policy1.implement_reform(iit_reform)
 
     # the default set up increments year to 2013
     calc1 = Calculator(records=records1, policy=policy1)
@@ -97,7 +102,8 @@ def get_calculator(
 def get_data(
     baseline=False,
     start_year=DEFAULT_START_YEAR,
-    reform={},
+    iit_baseline=None,
+    iit_reform={},
     data=None,
     path=CUR_PATH,
     client=None,
@@ -112,7 +118,8 @@ def get_data(
     Args:
         baseline (boolean): True if baseline tax policy
         calculator_start_year (int): first year of budget window
-        reform (dictionary): IIT policy reform parameters, None if
+        iit_baseline (dictionary): IIT policy parameters for baseline
+        iit_reform (dictionary): IIT policy reform parameters, None if
             baseline
         data (DataFrame or str): DataFrame or path to datafile for
             Records object
@@ -132,7 +139,9 @@ def get_data(
     lazy_values = []
     for year in range(start_year, TC_LAST_YEAR + 1):
         lazy_values.append(
-            delayed(taxcalc_advance)(baseline, start_year, reform, data, year)
+            delayed(taxcalc_advance)(
+                baseline, start_year, iit_baseline, iit_reform, data, year
+            )
         )
     if client:  # pragma: no cover
         futures = client.compute(lazy_values, num_workers=num_workers)
@@ -167,14 +176,21 @@ def get_data(
     return micro_data_dict, taxcalc_version
 
 
-def taxcalc_advance(baseline, start_year, reform, data, year):
+def taxcalc_advance(
+    baseline, start_year, iit_baseline, iit_reform, data, year
+):
     """
     This function advances the year used in Tax-Calculator, compute
     taxes and rates, and save the results to a dictionary.
 
     Args:
-        calc1 (Tax-Calculator Calculator object): TC calculator
-        year (int): year to begin advancing from
+        baseline (boolean): True if baseline tax policy
+        start_year (int): first year of budget window
+        iit_baseline (dict): IIT policy parameters for baseline
+        iit_reform (dict): IIT policy reform parameters for reform
+        data (DataFrame or str): DataFrame or path to datafile for
+            Records object
+        year (int): year to advance to in Tax-Calculator
 
     Returns:
         tax_dict (dict): a dictionary of microdata with marginal tax
@@ -183,7 +199,8 @@ def taxcalc_advance(baseline, start_year, reform, data, year):
     calc1 = get_calculator(
         baseline=baseline,
         calculator_start_year=start_year,
-        reform=reform,
+        iit_baseline=iit_baseline,
+        iit_reform=iit_reform,
         data=data,
     )
     calc1.advance_to_year(year)