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Editorial chp plp #143

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12 changes: 6 additions & 6 deletions PatientLevelPrediction.Rmd
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -311,13 +311,13 @@ The final study population in which we will develop our model is often a subset

### Model Development Settings

To develop the prediction model we have to decide which algorithm(s) we like to train. We see the selection of the best algorithm for a certain prediction problem as an empirical question, i.e. we prefer to let the data speak for itself and try different approaches to find the best one. In our framework we have therefore implemented many algorithms as described in Section \@ref(modelFitting), and allow others to be added. In this example, to keep things simple, we select just one algorithm: Gradient Boosting Machines.
To develop the prediction model we have to decide which algorithm(s) we would like to train. We see the selection of the best algorithm for a certain prediction problem as an empirical question, i.e. we prefer to let the data speak for itself and try different approaches to find the best one. In our framework we have therefore implemented many algorithms as described in Section \@ref(modelFitting), and allow others to be added. In this example, to keep things simple, we select just one algorithm: Gradient Boosting Machines.

Furthermore, we have to decide on the covariates that we will use to train our model. In our example, we like to add gender, age, all conditions, drugs and drug groups, and visit counts. We will look for these clinical events in the year before and any time prior to the index date.
Furthermore, we have to decide on the covariates that we will use to train our model. In our example, we add gender, age, all conditions, drugs and drug groups, and visit counts. We will look for these clinical events in the year after and any time prior to the index date.

### Model Evaluation

Finally, we have to define how we will evaluate our model. For simplicity, we here choose internal validation. We have to decide how we divide our dataset in a training and test dataset and how we assign patients to these two sets. Here we will use a typical 75% - 25% split. Note that for very large datasets we could use more data for training.
Finally, we have to define how we will evaluate our model. For simplicity, we here choose internal validation. We have to decide how we divide our dataset into a training and test dataset and how we assign patients to these two sets. Here we will use a typical 75% - 25% split. Note that for very large datasets we could use more data for training.

### Study Summary

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -377,7 +377,7 @@ knitr::include_graphics("images/PatientLevelPrediction/covariateSettings1.png")
The next section enables the selection of non-time bound variables.

- Gender: a binary variable indicating male or female gender
- Age: a continuous variable corresponding to age in years
- Age: a continuous variable corresponding to age in years at index date
- Age group: binary variables for every 5 years of age (0-4, 5-9, 10-14, ..., 95+)
- Race: a binary variable for each race, 1 means the patient has that race recorded, 0 otherwise
- Ethnicity: a binary variable for each ethnicity, 1 means the patient has that ethnicity recorded, 0 otherwise
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -452,13 +452,13 @@ knitr::include_graphics("images/PatientLevelPrediction/covariateSettings6.png")

#### Population Settings {-}

The population settings is where addition inclusion criteria can be applied to the target population and is also where the time-at-risk is defined. To add a population setting into the study, click on the "Add Population Settings" button. This will open up the population setting view.
The population settings is where additional inclusion criteria can be applied to the target population and is also where the time-at-risk is defined. To add a population setting into the study, click on the "Add Population Settings" button. This will open up the population setting view.

The first set of options enable the user to specify the time-at-risk period. This is the time interval where we look to see whether the outcome of interest occurs. If a patient has the outcome during the time-at-risk period then we will classify them as "Has outcome", otherwise they are classified as "No outcome". "**Define the time-at-risk window start, relative to target cohort entry:**" defines the start of the time-at-risk, relative to the target cohort start or end date. Similarly, "**Define the time-at-risk window end:**" defines the end of the time-at-risk.

"**Minimum lookback period applied to target cohort**" specifies the minimum baseline period, the minimum number of days prior to the cohort start date that a patient is continuously observed. The default is 365 days. Expanding the minimum look-back will give a more complete picture of a patient (as they must have been observed for longer) but will filter patients who do not have the minimum number of days prior observation.

If "**Should subjects without time at risk be removed?**" is set to yes, then a value for "**Minimum time at risk:**" is also required. This allows removing people who are lost to follow-up (i.e. that have left the database during the time-at-risk period). For example, if the time-at-risk period was 1 day from cohort start until 365 days from cohort start, then the full time-at-risk interval is 364 days (365-1). If we only want to include patients who are observed the whole interval, then we set the minimum time at risk to be 364. If we are happy as long as people are in the time-at-risk for the first 100 days, then we select minimum time at risk to be 100. In this case as the time-at-risk start is 1 day from the cohort start, a patient will be included if they remain in the database for at least 101 days from the cohort start date. If we set "Should subjects without time at risk be removed?" to 'No', then this will keep all patients, even those who drop out from the database during the time-at-risk.
If "**Should subjects without time at risk be removed?**" is set to yes, then a value for "**Minimum time at risk:**" is also required. This allows the removal of people who are lost to follow-up (i.e. that have left the database during the time-at-risk period). For example, if the time-at-risk period was 1 day from cohort start until 365 days from cohort start, then the full time-at-risk interval is 364 days (365-1). If we only want to include patients who are observed the whole interval, then we set the minimum time at risk to be 364. If we are happy as long as people are in the time-at-risk for the first 100 days, then we select minimum time at risk to be 100. In this case as the time-at-risk start is 1 day from the cohort start, a patient will be included if they remain in the database for at least 101 days from the cohort start date. If we set "Should subjects without time at risk be removed?" to 'No', then this will keep all patients, even those who drop out from the database during the time-at-risk.

The option "**Include people with outcomes who are not observed for the whole at risk period?**" is related to the previous option. If set to "yes", then people who experience the outcome during the time-at-risk are always kept, even if they are not observed for the specified minimum amount of time.

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