Cholera Transmission Behavior

Contact Only

Even though Cholera is importantly and necessarily environmental, we want to explore contact-only transmission behavior first

Single Node

We run for 5 years, seeding with a one-time initial outbreak of 0.25%. As long as the population is >~ 400,000, the outbreak seems to "take".

Below explore how this varies by population and birth rate.

10 Nodes Varying by Population

Population varies from 1e5 to 1e7. Low Birth Rate (10):

High CBR (40):

Multi-Node, NOT Spatial

25 independent nodes, varying by Initial Population and Birth Rate

S, I and Pop

SI Orbitals

Observations

• As population increases, we're more likely to reach endemicity
• As birth rate increases, we're get more susceptibles more often, we should be more likely to reach endemicity with smaller initial populations?
• For any scenario in which endemicity is achieved, the curve and prevalence (as a fraction) are the same even as population and birth rates increase (??)