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trends-over-time-in-state-sponsored-mass-killing
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trends-over-time-in-state-sponsored-mass-killing
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# Code to make charts in "Trends Over Time in State-Sponsored Mass Killing" (25 July 2013)
# http://dartthrowingchimp.wordpress.com/2013/07/25/trends-over-time-in-state-sponsored-mass-killing/
# DATA
# Clear workspace.
rm(list=ls(all=TRUE))
# Get .csv from this link to my Google Drive
# https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5wyt4eDq98GQkJPcGx6cFNpd3M/edit?usp=sharing
# Load it.
df <- read.csv("masskillings.csv", header = TRUE)
# TIME-SERIES PLOTS
# Create annual summaries
onsets <- tapply(ifelse(df$start==1, 1, 0), df$year, sum, na.rm = TRUE)
ongoings <- tapply(ifelse(df$ongoing==1, 1, 0), df$year, sum, na.rm = TRUE)
years <- seq(from=1945, to=2013, by=1)
countries <- tapply(ifelse(is.na(df$age)== FALSE, 1, 0), df$year, sum, na.rm = TRUE)
datyr <- as.data.frame(cbind(years, countries, onsets, ongoings))
datyr$incidence <- 100 * (datyr$onsets / datyr$countries)
datyr$prevalence <- 100 * (datyr$ongoings / datyr$countries)
datyr <- datyr[which(datyr$year < 2013),] # Remove current (incomplete) year
jpeg(file="mass.killing.trends.1946.2012.jpg",
width=6, height=8, units="in", bg="white", res=150)
par(mfrow=c(3,1))
plot(datyr$years, datyr$onsets, type="h", col="orange", lwd=2,
ylim=c(0,10), xlab="", ylab="no. of events", main = "Counts of Onsets")
plot(datyr$years, datyr$incidence, type="l", col="red", lwd=2,
ylim=c(0,10), xlab="", ylab="% of countries", main = "Incidence")
plot(datyr$years, datyr$prevalence, type="l", col="brown", lwd=2,
ylim=c(0,25), xlab="", ylab="% of countries", main = "Prevalence")
dev.off()
# MAPS AND ANIMATION
library(rworldmap)
# NOTE: Because country names must match, ensuing code is version dependent. This was run
# using version 1.02-6. You can check which version you're running with:
# packageDescription('rworldmap')$Version
# To install the latest version, use:
# install.packages("rworldmap", repos="http://R-Forge.R-project.org")
# Rename some countries to match the names used in 'rworldmap'
df$country <- as.character(df$country)
df$country <- replace(df$country, df$country=="Ivory Coast", "Cote d'Ivoire")
df$country <- replace(df$country, df$country=="Congo-Brazzaville", "Congo")
df$country <- replace(df$country, df$country=="Congo-Kinshasa", "Democratic Republic of the Congo")
df$country <- replace(df$country, df$country=="Iran", "Iran (Islamic Republic of)")
df$country <- replace(df$country, df$country=="Macedonia", "The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia")
df$country <- replace(df$country, df$country=="Laos", "Lao People's Democratic Republic")
df$country <- replace(df$country, df$country=="Moldova", "Republic of Moldova")
df$country <- replace(df$country, df$country=="Vietnam", "Viet Nam")
df$country <- replace(df$country, df$country=="Syria", "Syrian Arab Republic")
df$country <- replace(df$country, df$country=="Tanzania", "United Republic of Tanzania")
df$country <- replace(df$country, df$country=="North Korea", "Korea, Democratic People's Republic of")
df$country <- replace(df$country, df$country=="South Korea", "Korea, Republic of")
df$country <- replace(df$country, df$country=="Timor Leste", "Timor-Leste")
df$country <- replace(df$country, df$country=="Myanmar", "Burma")
# Function for adding empty country-years for pre- or post-independence spells
additup <- function(x) {
id <- rep(x, each = length(seq(min(df$year), max(df$year), 1)))
yr <- rep(seq(min(df$year), max(df$year), 1), times = length(x))
d <- as.data.frame(cbind(id, yr))
names(d) <- c("country", "year")
rm(id, yr)
d$country <- as.character(d$country)
d$year <- as.numeric(as.character(d$year))
df <- merge(df, d, all = TRUE)
return(df)
}
# Paint former Soviet republics with values for "Soviet Union" pre-1991
ssrs <- c("Russia", "Estonia", "Latvia", "Lithuania", "Belarus",
"Republic of Moldova", "Georgia", "Armenia", "Azerbaijan", "Tajikistan",
"Turkmenistan", "Kazakhstan", "Uzbekistan", "Kyrgyzstan", "Ukraine")
df <- additup(ssrs)
ussr <- which(df$year < 1991 & (df$country=="Russia" | df$country=="Estonia" | df$country=="Latvia" |
df$country=="Lithuania" | df$country=="Belarus" | df$country=="Republic of Moldova" |
df$country=="Georgia" | df$country=="Armenia" | df$country=="Azerbaijan" |
df$country=="Tajikistan" | df$country=="Turkmenistan" | df$country=="Kazakhstan" |
df$country=="Uzbekistan" | df$country=="Kyrgyzstan" | df$country=="Ukraine") )
df$ongoing <- replace(df$ongoing, ussr, 0)
df$start <- replace(df$start, ussr, 0)
# Same for Czechoslovakia
czech <- c("Czech Republic", "Slovakia")
df <- additup(czech)
czechgo1 <- which( ( df$year==1946 | (df$year>1947 & df$year<1964) ) &
(df$country=="Czech Republic" | df$country=="Slovakia") )
czechgo0 <- which( ( df$year==1947 | (df$year>=1964 & df$year<1993) ) &
(df$country=="Czech Republic" | df$country=="Slovakia") )
czechst1 <- which(df$year==1948 & (df$country=="Czech Republic" | df$country=="Slovakia") )
czechst0 <- which((df$year<1948 | (df$year>1948 & df$year<1993) ) &
(df$country=="Czech Republic" | df$country=="Slovakia") )
df$ongoing <- replace(df$ongoing, czechgo1, 1 )
df$ongoing <- replace(df$ongoing, czechgo0, 0 )
df$start <- replace(df$start, czechst1, 1 )
df$start <- replace(df$start, czechst0, 0 )
# Ditto for Yugoslavia
yugo <- c("Bosnia and Herzegovina", "The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia", "Serbia",
"Montenegro", "Croatia", "Slovenia")
df <- additup(yugo)
yuggo1 <- which( df$year<=1956 &
(df$country=="Bosnia and Herzegovina" | df$country=="The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia" |
df$country=="Serbia" | df$country=="Montenegro" | df$country=="Croatia" | df$country=="Slovenia")
)
yuggo0 <- which( df$year>1956 & df$year<1991 &
(df$country=="Bosnia and Herzegovina" | df$country=="The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia" |
df$country=="Serbia" | df$country=="Montenegro" | df$country=="Croatia" | df$country=="Slovenia")
)
yugst0 <- which(df$year<1991 &
(df$country=="Bosnia and Herzegovina" | df$country=="The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia" |
df$country=="Serbia" | df$country=="Montenegro" | df$country=="Croatia" | df$country=="Slovenia")
)
df$ongoing <- replace(df$ongoing, yuggo1, 1 )
df$ongoing <- replace(df$ongoing, yuggo0, 0 )
df$start <- replace(df$start, yugst0, 0 )
fyuggo1 <- which( df$year>=1998 & df$year<=1999 &
(df$country=="Serbia" | df$country=="Montenegro") )
fyuggo0 <- which( ( (df$year>=1991 & df$year<=1997) | (df$year>=2000 & df$year<=2005) ) &
(df$country=="Serbia" | df$country=="Montenegro") )
fyugst1 <- which( df$year==1998 &
(df$country=="Serbia" | df$country=="Montenegro") )
fyugst0 <- which( ( (df$year>=1991 & df$year<=1997) | (df$year>=1999 & df$year<=2005) ) &
(df$country=="Serbia" | df$country=="Montenegro") )
df$ongoing <- replace(df$ongoing, fyuggo1, 1 )
df$ongoing <- replace(df$ongoing, fyuggo0, 0 )
df$start <- replace(df$start, fyugst1, 1 )
df$start <- replace(df$start, fyugst0, 0 )
# Ethiopia and Eritrea
eritrea <- "Eritrea"
df <- additup(eritrea)
erigo1 <- which( df$year>=1961 & df$year<=1991 & df$country=="Eritrea" )
erigo0 <- which( ( df$year<=1960 | df$year==1992 ) & df$country=="Eritrea" )
erist1 <- which( ( df$year==1961 | df$year==1974 | df$year==1977 ) & df$country=="Eritrea" )
erist0 <- which( ( df$year<=1960 | (df$year>=1962 & df$year<=1973) | (df$year>=1975 & df$year<=1976) |
(df$year>=1978 & df$year<=1992) | (df$year>=1999 & df$year<=2005) ) & df$country=="Eritrea" )
df$ongoing <- replace(df$ongoing, erigo1, 1 )
df$ongoing <- replace(df$ongoing, erigo0, 0 )
df$start <- replace(df$start, erist1, 1 )
df$start <- replace(df$start, erist0, 0 )
# Vietnam
viet <- "Viet Nam"
df <- additup(viet)
df$ongoing <- replace(df$ongoing, which(df$country=="Viet Nam" & df$year>=1954 & df$year<=1975), 1)
df$ongoing <- replace(df$ongoing, which(df$country=="Viet Nam" & df$year<1954), 0)
df$start <- replace(df$start, which(df$country=="Viet Nam" & df$year==1954), 1)
df$start <- replace(df$start, which(df$country=="Viet Nam" & (df$year<1954 | df$year>1954)), 0)
# Yemen
yemen <- "Yemen"
df <- additup(yemen)
df$ongoing <- replace(df$ongoing, which(df$country=="Yemen" & ( ( df$year>=1962 & df$year<=1970) | df$year==1986 ) ), 1)
df$ongoing <- replace(df$ongoing, which(df$country=="Yemen" &
( df$year<1962 | (df$year>1970 & df$year<1986) | (df$year>1986 & df$year<1990) ) ), 0)
df$start <- replace(df$start, which(df$country=="Yemen" & (df$year==1962 | df$year==1986)), 1)
df$start <- replace(df$start, which(df$country=="Yemen" &
( df$year<1962 | (df$year>1962 & df$year<1986) | (df$year>1986 & df$year<1990) ) ), 0)
# Germany
germany <- "Germany"
df <- additup(germany)
df$ongoing <- replace(df$ongoing, which(df$country=="Germany" & df$year < 1990), 0)
df$start <- replace(df$start, which(df$country=="Germany" & df$year < 1990), 0)
# South Sudan
ssudan <- "South Sudan"
df <- additup(ssudan)
df$ongoing <- replace(df$ongoing, which(df$country=="South Sudan" & df$year >= 1956 & df$year < 2011),
df$ongoing[df$country=="Sudan" & df$year >= 1956 & df$year < 2011] )
df$start <- replace(df$start, which(df$country=="South Sudan" & df$year >= 1956 & df$year < 2011),
df$start[df$country=="Sudan" & df$year >= 1956 & df$year < 2011])
# Create 3-level cat var for none, onset, ongoing
df$status <- ifelse(df$ongoing==0, 0,
ifelse(df$start==1, 2, ifelse(is.na(df$start)==FALSE, 1, NA)))
df$status <- factor(df$status, levels=c(0,1,2), labels=c("none", "ongoing", "onset"))
# Function to make a map for a one-year slice
mapit <- function(x) {
jpeg(file=paste("mk", as.character(x), ".jpg", sep=""),
width=5, height=4, units='in', bg='white', res=150, quality=100)
par(mai = c(0, 0, 0.2, 0), xaxs = "i", yaxs = "i")
mapCountryData(joinCountryData2Map(subset(df, year==x), joinCode = "NAME",
nameJoinColumn = "country"),
nameColumnToPlot="status", numCats = 3, catMethod="categorical",
colourPalette=c("gray95", "darkorange", "darkorange4"),
mapTitle=paste(as.character(x)) )
mtext("map made using rworldmap", line=-1, side=1, adj=1, cex=0.5)
dev.off()
}
# Run the function for a selected range of years
for( i in seq(1946,2012,1) ) { mapit(i) }
# Make a .gif.
# NOTE: The code that follows is specific to Windows and requires prior installation of
# ImageMagick (http://www.imagemagick.org/script/index.php). If you install ImageMagick,
# be sure the directory in the first ani.options() line below matches the one where it's
# installed.
library(animation)
ani.options( convert = shQuote("C:/Program Files (x86)/ImageMagick-6.7.6-q16/convert.exe") )
ani.options( outdir = getwd() )
ani.options( nmax = 2012 - 1945)
ani.options( ani.type = "jpeg", ani.dev = "jpeg")
im.convert("mk*.jpg", output = "mkeps19462012.gif")