From f8b5f6445ffd4e1afbc9fc3a7bec46d8cccd4309 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Jack Roberts <jroberts@turing.ac.uk>
Date: Wed, 24 Jul 2024 10:54:08 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 01/11] wip update max free transfers to 5

and separate max free transfers allowed in game rules and max transfers per week to consider in optimisation
---
 airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py      |  45 ++++---
 .../scripts/fill_transfersuggestion_table.py  |  13 +-
 airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py           | 120 +++++++++---------
 3 files changed, 103 insertions(+), 75 deletions(-)

diff --git a/airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py b/airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py
index b4ee1e6b..55d910f5 100644
--- a/airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py
+++ b/airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py
@@ -29,6 +29,7 @@
 positions = ["FWD", "MID", "DEF", "GK"]  # front-to-back
 
 DEFAULT_SUB_WEIGHTS = {"GK": 0.03, "Outfield": (0.65, 0.3, 0.1)}
+MAX_FREE_TRANSFERS = 5  # changed in 24/25 season (not accounted for in replay season)
 
 
 def check_tag_valid(pred_tag, gameweek_range, season=CURRENT_SEASON, dbsession=session):
@@ -74,22 +75,24 @@ def calc_points_hit(num_transfers, free_transfers):
         raise RuntimeError(f"Unexpected argument for num_transfers {num_transfers}")
 
 
-def calc_free_transfers(num_transfers, prev_free_transfers):
+def calc_free_transfers(
+    num_transfers, prev_free_transfers, max_free_transfers=MAX_FREE_TRANSFERS
+):
     """
     We get one extra free transfer per week, unless we use a wildcard or
     free hit, but we can't have more than 2.  So we should only be able
     to return 1 or 2.
     """
     if num_transfers in ["W", "F"]:
-        return 1
+        return prev_free_transfers  # changed in 24/25 season, previously 1
     elif isinstance(num_transfers, int):
-        return max(1, min(2, 1 + prev_free_transfers - num_transfers))
+        return max(1, min(max_free_transfers, 1 + prev_free_transfers - num_transfers))
     elif (num_transfers.startswith("B") or num_transfers.startswith("T")) and len(
         num_transfers
     ) == 2:
         # take the 'x' out of Bx or Tx
         num_transfers = int(num_transfers[-1])
-        return max(1, min(2, 1 + prev_free_transfers - num_transfers))
+        return max(1, min(max_free_transfers, 1 + prev_free_transfers - num_transfers))
     else:
         raise RuntimeError(f"Unexpected argument for num_transfers {num_transfers}")
 
@@ -429,8 +432,9 @@ def next_week_transfers(
     strat,
     max_total_hit=None,
     allow_unused_transfers=True,
-    max_transfers=2,
+    max_opt_transfers=2,
     chips={"chips_allowed": [], "chip_to_play": None},
+    max_free_transfers=MAX_FREE_TRANSFERS,
 ):
     """Given a previous strategy and some optimisation constraints, determine the valid
     options for the number of transfers (or chip played) in the following gameweek.
@@ -438,6 +442,12 @@ def next_week_transfers(
     strat is a tuple (free_transfers, hit_so_far, strat_dict)
     strat_dict must have key chips_played, which is a dict indexed by gameweek with
     possible values None, "wildcard", "free_hit", "bench_boost" or triple_captain"
+
+    max_opt_transfers - maximum number of transfers to play each week as part of
+    strategy in optimisation
+
+    max_free_transfers - maximum number of free transfers saved in the game rules
+    (2 before 2024/25, 5 from 2024/25 season)
     """
     # check that the 'chips' dict we are given makes sense:
     if (
@@ -453,13 +463,13 @@ def next_week_transfers(
     ft_available, hit_so_far, strat_dict = strat
     chip_history = strat_dict["chips_played"]
 
-    if not allow_unused_transfers and ft_available == 2:
-        # Force at least 1 free transfer.
+    if not allow_unused_transfers and ft_available == max_free_transfers:
+        # Force at least 1 free transfer if a free transfer will be lost otherwise.
         # NOTE: This will exclude the baseline strategy when allow_unused_transfers
         # is False. Re-add it outside this function in that case.
-        ft_choices = list(range(1, max_transfers + 1))
+        ft_choices = list(range(1, max_opt_transfers + 1))
     else:
-        ft_choices = list(range(max_transfers + 1))
+        ft_choices = list(range(max_opt_transfers + 1))
 
     if max_total_hit is not None:
         ft_choices = [
@@ -515,7 +525,10 @@ def next_week_transfers(
     new_points_hits = [
         hit_so_far + calc_points_hit(nt, ft_available) for nt in new_transfers
     ]
-    new_ft_available = [calc_free_transfers(nt, ft_available) for nt in new_transfers]
+    new_ft_available = [
+        calc_free_transfers(nt, ft_available, max_free_transfers)
+        for nt in new_transfers
+    ]
 
     # return list of (num_transfers, free_transfers, hit_so_far) tuples for each new
     # strategy
@@ -528,8 +541,9 @@ def count_expected_outputs(
     free_transfers=1,
     max_total_hit=None,
     allow_unused_transfers=True,
-    max_transfers=2,
+    max_opt_transfers=2,
     chip_gw_dict={},
+    max_free_transfers=MAX_FREE_TRANSFERS,
 ):
     """
     Count the number of possible transfer and chip strategies for gw_ahead gameweeks
@@ -540,7 +554,7 @@ def count_expected_outputs(
     * Allow playing the chips which have their allow_xxx argument set True
     * Exclude strategies that waste free transfers (make 0 transfers if 2 free tramsfers
     are available), if allow_unused_transfers is False.
-    * Make a maximum of max_transfers transfers each gameweek.
+    * Make a maximum of max_opt_transfers transfers each gameweek.
     * Each chip only allowed once.
     """
 
@@ -559,9 +573,10 @@ def count_expected_outputs(
             possibilities = next_week_transfers(
                 s,
                 max_total_hit=max_total_hit,
-                max_transfers=max_transfers,
+                max_opt_transfers=max_opt_transfers,
                 allow_unused_transfers=allow_unused_transfers,
                 chips=chips_for_gw,
+                max_free_transfers=max_free_transfers,
             )
 
             for n_transfers, new_free_transfers, new_hit in possibilities:
@@ -596,13 +611,13 @@ def count_expected_outputs(
     # if allow_unused_transfers is False baseline of no transfers will be removed above,
     # add it back in here, apart from edge cases where it's already included.
     if not allow_unused_transfers and (
-        gw_ahead > 1 or (gw_ahead == 1 and init_free_transfers == 2)
+        gw_ahead > 1 or (gw_ahead == 1 and init_free_transfers == max_free_transfers)
     ):
         baseline_strat_dict = {
             "players_in": {gw: [] for gw in range(next_gw, next_gw + gw_ahead)},
             "chips_played": {},
         }
-        baseline_dict = (2, 0, baseline_strat_dict)
+        baseline_dict = (max_free_transfers, 0, baseline_strat_dict)
         strategies.insert(0, baseline_dict)
     return len(strategies)
 
diff --git a/airsenal/scripts/fill_transfersuggestion_table.py b/airsenal/scripts/fill_transfersuggestion_table.py
index b5912bdb..af8037b2 100644
--- a/airsenal/scripts/fill_transfersuggestion_table.py
+++ b/airsenal/scripts/fill_transfersuggestion_table.py
@@ -39,6 +39,7 @@
 )
 from airsenal.framework.optimization_transfers import make_best_transfers
 from airsenal.framework.optimization_utils import (
+    MAX_FREE_TRANSFERS,
     calc_free_transfers,
     calc_points_hit,
     check_tag_valid,
@@ -95,6 +96,7 @@ def optimize(
     updater: Optional[Callable] = None,
     resetter: Optional[Callable] = None,
     profile: bool = False,
+    max_free_transfers: int = MAX_FREE_TRANSFERS,
 ) -> None:
     """
     Queue is the multiprocessing queue,
@@ -213,7 +215,9 @@ def optimize(
             strat_dict["discount_factor"][gw] = discount_factor
             strat_dict["players_in"][gw] = transfers["in"]
             strat_dict["players_out"][gw] = transfers["out"]
-            free_transfers = calc_free_transfers(num_transfers, free_transfers)
+            free_transfers = calc_free_transfers(
+                num_transfers, free_transfers, max_free_transfers
+            )
 
             depth += 1
 
@@ -235,8 +239,9 @@ def optimize(
                 (free_transfers, hit_so_far, strat_dict),
                 max_total_hit=max_total_hit,
                 allow_unused_transfers=allow_unused_transfers,
-                max_transfers=max_transfers,
+                max_opt_transfers=max_transfers,
                 chips=chips_gw_dict[gw + 1],
+                max_free_transfers=max_free_transfers,
             )
 
             for strat in strategies:
@@ -412,6 +417,7 @@ def run_optimization(
     num_thread: int = 4,
     profile: bool = False,
     is_replay: bool = False,  # for replaying seasons
+    max_free_transfers: int = MAX_FREE_TRANSFERS,
 ):
     """
     This is the actual main function that sets up the multiprocessing
@@ -511,8 +517,9 @@ def run_optimization(
         free_transfers=num_free_transfers,
         max_total_hit=max_total_hit,
         allow_unused_transfers=allow_unused_transfers,
-        max_transfers=max_transfers,
+        max_opt_transfers=max_transfers,
         chip_gw_dict=chip_gw_dict,
+        max_free_transfers=max_free_transfers,
     )
     total_progress = tqdm(total=num_expected_outputs, desc="Total progress")
 
diff --git a/airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py b/airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py
index 8ec24758..2ebdb81d 100644
--- a/airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py
+++ b/airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py
@@ -282,7 +282,7 @@ def test_next_week_transfers_no_chips_no_constraints():
         strat,
         max_total_hit=None,
         allow_unused_transfers=True,
-        max_transfers=2,
+        max_opt_transfers=2,
     )
     # (no. transfers, free transfers following week, points hit)
     expected = [(0, 2, 0), (1, 1, 0), (2, 1, 4)]
@@ -295,7 +295,7 @@ def test_next_week_transfers_any_chip_no_constraints():
     actual = next_week_transfers(
         strat,
         max_total_hit=None,
-        max_transfers=2,
+        max_opt_transfers=2,
         chips={
             "chips_allowed": ["wildcard", "free_hit", "bench_boost", "triple_captain"],
             "chip_to_play": None,
@@ -324,7 +324,7 @@ def test_next_week_transfers_no_chips_zero_hit():
         strat,
         max_total_hit=0,
         allow_unused_transfers=True,
-        max_transfers=2,
+        max_opt_transfers=2,
     )
     expected = [(0, 2, 0), (1, 1, 0)]
     assert actual == expected
@@ -337,7 +337,7 @@ def test_next_week_transfers_2ft_no_unused():
         strat,
         max_total_hit=None,
         allow_unused_transfers=False,
-        max_transfers=2,
+        max_opt_transfers=2,
     )
     expected = [(1, 2, 0), (2, 1, 0)]
     assert actual == expected
@@ -361,7 +361,7 @@ def test_next_week_transfers_chips_already_used():
     actual = next_week_transfers(
         strat,
         max_total_hit=None,
-        max_transfers=2,
+        max_opt_transfers=2,
     )
     expected = [(0, 2, 0), (1, 1, 0), (2, 1, 4)]
     assert actual == expected
@@ -372,7 +372,7 @@ def test_next_week_transfers_play_wildcard():
     actual = next_week_transfers(
         strat,
         max_total_hit=None,
-        max_transfers=2,
+        max_opt_transfers=2,
         chips={"chips_allowed": [], "chip_to_play": "wildcard"},
     )
     expected = [("W", 1, 0)]
@@ -384,10 +384,10 @@ def test_next_week_transfers_2ft_allow_wildcard():
     actual = next_week_transfers(
         strat,
         max_total_hit=None,
-        max_transfers=2,
+        max_opt_transfers=2,
         chips={"chips_allowed": ["wildcard"], "chip_to_play": None},
     )
-    expected = [(0, 2, 0), (1, 2, 0), (2, 1, 0), ("W", 1, 0)]
+    expected = [(0, 2, 0), (1, 2, 0), (2, 1, 0), ("W", 2, 0)]
     assert actual == expected
 
 
@@ -397,10 +397,10 @@ def test_next_week_transfers_2ft_allow_wildcard_no_unused():
         strat,
         max_total_hit=None,
         allow_unused_transfers=False,
-        max_transfers=2,
+        max_opt_transfers=2,
         chips={"chips_allowed": ["wildcard"], "chip_to_play": None},
     )
-    expected = [(1, 2, 0), (2, 1, 0), ("W", 1, 0)]
+    expected = [(1, 2, 0), (2, 1, 0), ("W", 2, 0)]
     assert actual == expected
 
 
@@ -409,10 +409,10 @@ def test_next_week_transfers_2ft_play_wildcard():
     actual = next_week_transfers(
         strat,
         max_total_hit=None,
-        max_transfers=2,
+        max_opt_transfers=2,
         chips={"chips_allowed": [], "chip_to_play": "wildcard"},
     )
-    expected = [("W", 1, 0)]
+    expected = [("W", 2, 0)]
     assert actual == expected
 
 
@@ -422,7 +422,7 @@ def test_next_week_transfers_2ft_play_bench_boost_no_unused():
         strat,
         max_total_hit=None,
         allow_unused_transfers=False,
-        max_transfers=2,
+        max_opt_transfers=2,
         chips={"chips_allowed": [], "chip_to_play": "bench_boost"},
     )
     expected = [("B1", 2, 0), ("B2", 1, 0)]
@@ -435,7 +435,7 @@ def test_next_week_transfers_play_triple_captain_max_transfers_3():
         strat,
         max_total_hit=None,
         allow_unused_transfers=True,
-        max_transfers=3,
+        max_opt_transfers=3,
         chips={"chips_allowed": [], "chip_to_play": "triple_captain"},
     )
     expected = [("T0", 2, 0), ("T1", 1, 0), ("T2", 1, 4), ("T3", 1, 8)]
@@ -450,65 +450,68 @@ def test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_no_constraints():
         max_total_hit=None,
         allow_unused_transfers=True,
         next_gw=1,
-        max_transfers=2,
+        max_opt_transfers=2,
         chip_gw_dict={},
     )
     assert count == 3**3
 
-    # Max hit 0
-    # Include:
-    # (0, 0, 0), (0, 0, 1), (0, 0, 2), (0, 1, 0), (0, 1, 1), (0, 1, 2),
-    # (0, 2, 0), (0, 2, 1), (1, 0, 0), (1, 0, 1), (1, 0, 2), (1, 1, 0), (1, 1, 1)
-    # Exclude:
-    # (0, 2, 2), (1, 1, 2), (1, 2, 0), (1, 2, 1), (1, 2, 2), (2, 0, 0), (2, 0, 1),
-    # (2, 0, 2), (2, 1, 0), (2, 1, 1), (2, 1, 2), (2, 2, 0), (2, 2, 1), (2, 2, 2)
-
 
 def test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_zero_hit():
+    """
+    Max hit 0
+    Include:
+    (0, 0, 0), (0, 0, 1), (0, 0, 2), (0, 1, 0), (0, 1, 1), (0, 1, 2),
+    (0, 2, 0), (0, 2, 1), (1, 0, 0), (1, 0, 1), (1, 0, 2), (1, 1, 0), (1, 1, 1)
+    Exclude:
+    (0, 2, 2), (1, 1, 2), (1, 2, 0), (1, 2, 1), (1, 2, 2), (2, 0, 0), (2, 0, 1),
+    (2, 0, 2), (2, 1, 0), (2, 1, 1), (2, 1, 2), (2, 2, 0), (2, 2, 1), (2, 2, 2)
+    """
     count = count_expected_outputs(
         3,
         free_transfers=1,
         max_total_hit=0,
         next_gw=1,
-        max_transfers=2,
+        max_opt_transfers=2,
         chip_gw_dict={},
     )
     assert count == 13
 
-    # Start with 2 FT and no unused
-    # Include:
-    # (0, 0, 0), (1, 1, 1), (1, 1, 2), (1, 2, 0), (1, 2, 1), (1, 2, 2), (2, 0, 1),
-    # (2, 0, 2), (2, 1, 0), (2, 1, 1), (2, 1, 2), (2, 2, 0), (2, 2, 1), (2, 2, 2)
-    # Exclude:
-    # (0, 0, 1), (0, 0, 2), (0, 1, 0), (0, 1, 1), (0, 1, 2), (0, 2, 0), (0, 2, 1),
-    # (0, 2, 2), (1, 0, 0), (1, 0, 1), (1, 0, 2), (1, 1, 0), (2, 0, 0)
-
 
 def test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_2ft_no_unused():
+    """
+    Start with 2 FT and no unused
+    Include:
+    (0, 0, 0), (1, 1, 1), (1, 1, 2), (1, 2, 0), (1, 2, 1), (1, 2, 2), (2, 0, 1),
+    (2, 0, 2), (2, 1, 0), (2, 1, 1), (2, 1, 2), (2, 2, 0), (2, 2, 1), (2, 2, 2)
+    Exclude:
+    (0, 0, 1), (0, 0, 2), (0, 1, 0), (0, 1, 1), (0, 1, 2), (0, 2, 0), (0, 2, 1),
+    (0, 2, 2), (1, 0, 0), (1, 0, 1), (1, 0, 2), (1, 1, 0), (2, 0, 0)
+    """
     count = count_expected_outputs(
         3,
         free_transfers=2,
         max_total_hit=None,
         allow_unused_transfers=False,
         next_gw=1,
-        max_transfers=2,
+        max_opt_transfers=2,
     )
     assert count == 14
 
-    # Wildcard, 2 weeks, no constraints
-    # Strategies:
-    # (0, 0), (0, 1), (0, 2), (0, 'W'), (1, 0), (1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 'W'), (2, 0),
-    # (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 'W'), ('W', 0), ('W', 1), ('W', 2)
-
 
 def test_count_expected_wildcard_allowed_no_constraints():
+    """
+    Wildcard, 2 weeks, no constraints
+    Strategies:
+    (0, 0), (0, 1), (0, 2), (0, 'W'), (1, 0), (1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 'W'), (2, 0),
+    (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 'W'), ('W', 0), ('W', 1), ('W', 2)
+    """
     count = count_expected_outputs(
         2,
         free_transfers=1,
         max_total_hit=None,
         allow_unused_transfers=True,
         next_gw=1,
-        max_transfers=2,
+        max_opt_transfers=2,
         chip_gw_dict={
             1: {"chips_allowed": ["wildcard"]},
             2: {"chips_allowed": ["wildcard"]},
@@ -517,22 +520,23 @@ def test_count_expected_wildcard_allowed_no_constraints():
     )
     assert count == 15
 
-    # Bench boost, 2 weeks, no constraints
-    # Strategies:
-    # (0, 0), (0, 1), (0, 2), (0, 'B0'), (0, 'B1'), (0, 'B2'), (1, 0), (1, 1), (1, 2),
-    # (1, 'B0'), (1, 'B1'), (1, 'B2'), (2, 0), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 'B0'), (2, 'B1'),
-    # (2, 'B2'), ('B0', 0), ('B0', 1), ('B0', 2), ('B1', 0), ('B1', 1), ('B1', 2),
-    # ('B2', 0), ('B2', 1), ('B2', 2),
-
 
 def count_expected_bench_boost_allowed_no_constraints():
+    """
+    Bench boost, 2 weeks, no constraints
+    Strategies:
+    (0, 0), (0, 1), (0, 2), (0, 'B0'), (0, 'B1'), (0, 'B2'), (1, 0), (1, 1), (1, 2),
+    (1, 'B0'), (1, 'B1'), (1, 'B2'), (2, 0), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 'B0'), (2, 'B1'),
+    (2, 'B2'), ('B0', 0), ('B0', 1), ('B0', 2), ('B1', 0), ('B1', 1), ('B1', 2),
+    ('B2', 0), ('B2', 1), ('B2', 2),
+    """
     count = count_expected_outputs(
         2,
         free_transfers=1,
         max_total_hit=None,
         allow_unused_transfers=True,
         next_gw=1,
-        max_transfers=2,
+        max_opt_transfers=2,
         chip_gw_dict={
             1: {"chips_allowed": ["bench_boost"]},
             2: {"chips_allowed": ["bench_boost"]},
@@ -541,19 +545,20 @@ def count_expected_bench_boost_allowed_no_constraints():
     )
     assert count == 27
 
-    # Force playing wildcard in first week
-    # Strategies:
-    # ("W",0), ("W,1), ("W",2)
-
 
 def count_expected_play_wildcard_no_constraints():
+    """
+    Force playing wildcard in first week
+    Strategies:
+    ("W",0), ("W,1), ("W",2)
+    """
     count = count_expected_outputs(
         2,
         free_transfers=1,
         max_total_hit=None,
         allow_unused_transfers=True,
         next_gw=1,
-        max_transfers=2,
+        max_opt_transfers=2,
         chip_gw_dict={
             1: {"chip_to_play": "wildcard", "chips_allowed": []},
             2: {"chip_to_play": None, "chips_allowed": []},
@@ -561,19 +566,20 @@ def count_expected_play_wildcard_no_constraints():
     )
     assert count == 3
 
-    # Force playing free hit in first week, 2FT, don't allow unused
-    # Strategies:
-    # (0,0), ("F",1), ("F",2)
-
 
 def count_expected_play_free_hit_no_unused():
+    """
+    Force playing free hit in first week, 2FT, don't allow unused
+    Strategies:
+    (0,0), ("F",1), ("F",2)
+    """
     count = count_expected_outputs(
         2,
         free_transfers=2,
         max_total_hit=None,
         allow_unused_transfers=False,
         next_gw=1,
-        max_transfers=2,
+        max_opt_transfers=2,
         chip_gw_dict={
             1: {"chip_to_play": "free_hit", "chips_allowed": []},
             2: {"chip_to_play": None, "chips_allowed": []},

From 03f5ab8bd7a305e7a1e12d2b2411addc6cda4478 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Jack Roberts <jroberts@turing.ac.uk>
Date: Wed, 24 Jul 2024 13:14:36 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 02/11] fix tests by setting 2 max free transfers (not added 5
 free transfer tests)

---
 airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py | 5 +++++
 1 file changed, 5 insertions(+)

diff --git a/airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py b/airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py
index 2ebdb81d..03b53c0b 100644
--- a/airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py
+++ b/airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py
@@ -338,6 +338,7 @@ def test_next_week_transfers_2ft_no_unused():
         max_total_hit=None,
         allow_unused_transfers=False,
         max_opt_transfers=2,
+        max_free_transfers=2,
     )
     expected = [(1, 2, 0), (2, 1, 0)]
     assert actual == expected
@@ -386,6 +387,7 @@ def test_next_week_transfers_2ft_allow_wildcard():
         max_total_hit=None,
         max_opt_transfers=2,
         chips={"chips_allowed": ["wildcard"], "chip_to_play": None},
+        max_free_transfers=2,
     )
     expected = [(0, 2, 0), (1, 2, 0), (2, 1, 0), ("W", 2, 0)]
     assert actual == expected
@@ -399,6 +401,7 @@ def test_next_week_transfers_2ft_allow_wildcard_no_unused():
         allow_unused_transfers=False,
         max_opt_transfers=2,
         chips={"chips_allowed": ["wildcard"], "chip_to_play": None},
+        max_free_transfers=2,
     )
     expected = [(1, 2, 0), (2, 1, 0), ("W", 2, 0)]
     assert actual == expected
@@ -424,6 +427,7 @@ def test_next_week_transfers_2ft_play_bench_boost_no_unused():
         allow_unused_transfers=False,
         max_opt_transfers=2,
         chips={"chips_allowed": [], "chip_to_play": "bench_boost"},
+        max_free_transfers=2,
     )
     expected = [("B1", 2, 0), ("B2", 1, 0)]
     assert actual == expected
@@ -494,6 +498,7 @@ def test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_2ft_no_unused():
         allow_unused_transfers=False,
         next_gw=1,
         max_opt_transfers=2,
+        max_free_transfers=2,
     )
     assert count == 14
 

From 4787bae7308156a235c5d366a444fadb506cfc5b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Jack Roberts <jroberts@turing.ac.uk>
Date: Wed, 24 Jul 2024 21:52:20 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 03/11] add some basic tests with more than 2 transfers

---
 airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py |   2 +
 airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py      | 170 +++++++++++++++++++++++
 2 files changed, 172 insertions(+)

diff --git a/airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py b/airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py
index 55d910f5..5440b11e 100644
--- a/airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py
+++ b/airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py
@@ -448,6 +448,8 @@ def next_week_transfers(
 
     max_free_transfers - maximum number of free transfers saved in the game rules
     (2 before 2024/25, 5 from 2024/25 season)
+
+    Returns (new_transfers, new_ft_available, new_points_hits) tuples.
     """
     # check that the 'chips' dict we are given makes sense:
     if (
diff --git a/airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py b/airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py
index 03b53c0b..003ddfb1 100644
--- a/airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py
+++ b/airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py
@@ -289,6 +289,21 @@ def test_next_week_transfers_no_chips_no_constraints():
     assert actual == expected
 
 
+def test_next_week_transfers_no_chips_no_constraints_max5():
+    # First week (blank starting strat with 1 free transfer available)
+    strat = (1, 0, {"players_in": {}, "chips_played": {}})
+    # No chips or constraints
+    actual = next_week_transfers(
+        strat,
+        max_total_hit=None,
+        allow_unused_transfers=True,
+        max_opt_transfers=5,
+    )
+    # (no. transfers, free transfers following week, points hit)
+    expected = [(0, 2, 0), (1, 1, 0), (2, 1, 4), (3, 1, 8), (4, 1, 12), (5, 1, 16)]
+    assert actual == expected
+
+
 def test_next_week_transfers_any_chip_no_constraints():
     # All chips, no constraints
     strat = (1, 0, {"players_in": {}, "chips_played": {}})
@@ -317,6 +332,43 @@ def test_next_week_transfers_any_chip_no_constraints():
     assert actual == expected
 
 
+def test_next_week_transfers_any_chip_no_constraints_max5():
+    # All chips, no constraints
+    strat = (1, 0, {"players_in": {}, "chips_played": {}})
+    actual = next_week_transfers(
+        strat,
+        max_total_hit=None,
+        max_opt_transfers=5,
+        chips={
+            "chips_allowed": ["wildcard", "free_hit", "bench_boost", "triple_captain"],
+            "chip_to_play": None,
+        },
+    )
+    expected = [
+        (0, 2, 0),
+        (1, 1, 0),
+        (2, 1, 4),
+        (3, 1, 8),
+        (4, 1, 12),
+        (5, 1, 16),
+        ("W", 1, 0),
+        ("F", 1, 0),
+        ("B0", 2, 0),
+        ("B1", 1, 0),
+        ("B2", 1, 4),
+        ("B3", 1, 8),
+        ("B4", 1, 12),
+        ("B5", 1, 16),
+        ("T0", 2, 0),
+        ("T1", 1, 0),
+        ("T2", 1, 4),
+        ("T3", 1, 8),
+        ("T4", 1, 12),
+        ("T5", 1, 16),
+    ]
+    assert actual == expected
+
+
 def test_next_week_transfers_no_chips_zero_hit():
     # No points hits
     strat = (1, 0, {"players_in": {}, "chips_played": {}})
@@ -330,6 +382,19 @@ def test_next_week_transfers_no_chips_zero_hit():
     assert actual == expected
 
 
+def test_next_week_transfers_no_chips_zero_hit_max5():
+    # No points hits
+    strat = (1, 0, {"players_in": {}, "chips_played": {}})
+    actual = next_week_transfers(
+        strat,
+        max_total_hit=0,
+        allow_unused_transfers=True,
+        max_opt_transfers=5,
+    )
+    expected = [(0, 2, 0), (1, 1, 0)]
+    assert actual == expected
+
+
 def test_next_week_transfers_2ft_no_unused():
     # 2 free transfers available, no wasted transfers
     strat = (2, 0, {"players_in": {}, "chips_played": {}})
@@ -344,6 +409,34 @@ def test_next_week_transfers_2ft_no_unused():
     assert actual == expected
 
 
+def test_next_week_transfers_5ft_no_unused_max5():
+    # 2 free transfers available, no wasted transfers
+    strat = (5, 0, {"players_in": {}, "chips_played": {}})
+    actual = next_week_transfers(
+        strat,
+        max_total_hit=None,
+        allow_unused_transfers=False,
+        max_opt_transfers=5,
+        max_free_transfers=5,
+    )
+    expected = [(1, 5, 0), (2, 4, 0), (3, 3, 0), (4, 2, 0), (5, 1, 0)]
+    assert actual == expected
+
+
+def test_next_week_transfers_3ft_no_hit_max5():
+    # 2 free transfers available, no wasted transfers
+    strat = (3, 0, {"players_in": {}, "chips_played": {}})
+    actual = next_week_transfers(
+        strat,
+        max_total_hit=0,
+        allow_unused_transfers=False,
+        max_opt_transfers=5,
+        max_free_transfers=5,
+    )
+    expected = [(0, 4, 0), (1, 3, 0), (2, 2, 0), (3, 1, 0)]
+    assert actual == expected
+
+
 def test_next_week_transfers_chips_already_used():
     # Chips allowed but previously used
     strat = (
@@ -393,6 +486,27 @@ def test_next_week_transfers_2ft_allow_wildcard():
     assert actual == expected
 
 
+def test_next_week_transfers_5ft_allow_wildcard():
+    strat = (5, 0, {"players_in": {}, "chips_played": {}})
+    actual = next_week_transfers(
+        strat,
+        max_total_hit=None,
+        max_opt_transfers=5,
+        chips={"chips_allowed": ["wildcard"], "chip_to_play": None},
+        max_free_transfers=5,
+    )
+    expected = [
+        (0, 5, 0),
+        (1, 5, 0),
+        (2, 4, 0),
+        (3, 3, 0),
+        (4, 2, 0),
+        (5, 1, 0),
+        ("W", 5, 0),
+    ]
+    assert actual == expected
+
+
 def test_next_week_transfers_2ft_allow_wildcard_no_unused():
     strat = (2, 0, {"players_in": {}, "chips_played": {}})
     actual = next_week_transfers(
@@ -460,6 +574,21 @@ def test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_no_constraints():
     assert count == 3**3
 
 
+def test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_no_constraints_max5():
+    # No constraints or chips, expect 6**num_gameweeks strategies (0 to 5 transfers
+    # each week)
+    count = count_expected_outputs(
+        3,
+        free_transfers=1,
+        max_total_hit=None,
+        allow_unused_transfers=True,
+        next_gw=1,
+        max_opt_transfers=5,
+        chip_gw_dict={},
+    )
+    assert count == 5**3
+
+
 def test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_zero_hit():
     """
     Max hit 0
@@ -481,6 +610,24 @@ def test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_zero_hit():
     assert count == 13
 
 
+def test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_zero_hit_max5():
+    """
+    Max hit 0
+    Max 5 transfers
+    Adds (0, 0, 3) to valid strategies compared to
+    test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_zero_hit above
+    """
+    count = count_expected_outputs(
+        3,
+        free_transfers=1,
+        max_total_hit=0,
+        next_gw=1,
+        max_opt_transfers=5,
+        chip_gw_dict={},
+    )
+    assert count == 13
+
+
 def test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_2ft_no_unused():
     """
     Start with 2 FT and no unused
@@ -503,6 +650,29 @@ def test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_2ft_no_unused():
     assert count == 14
 
 
+def test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_5ft_no_unused_max5():
+    """
+    Start with 5 FT and no unused over 2 weeks
+    Include:
+    (0, 0),
+    (1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5),
+    (2, 0), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5),
+    (3, 0), (3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5),
+    (4, 0), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5),
+    (5, 0), (5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5),
+    """
+    count = count_expected_outputs(
+        2,
+        free_transfers=5,
+        max_total_hit=None,
+        allow_unused_transfers=False,
+        next_gw=1,
+        max_opt_transfers=5,
+        max_free_transfers=5,
+    )
+    assert count == 30
+
+
 def test_count_expected_wildcard_allowed_no_constraints():
     """
     Wildcard, 2 weeks, no constraints

From d8f9953ce5529406730915f8590dc914375c2cec Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Jack Roberts <jroberts@turing.ac.uk>
Date: Wed, 24 Jul 2024 21:56:28 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 04/11] fix previous commit

---
 airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py | 4 ++--
 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-)

diff --git a/airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py b/airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py
index 003ddfb1..347122aa 100644
--- a/airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py
+++ b/airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py
@@ -586,7 +586,7 @@ def test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_no_constraints_max5():
         max_opt_transfers=5,
         chip_gw_dict={},
     )
-    assert count == 5**3
+    assert count == 6**3
 
 
 def test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_zero_hit():
@@ -625,7 +625,7 @@ def test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_zero_hit_max5():
         max_opt_transfers=5,
         chip_gw_dict={},
     )
-    assert count == 13
+    assert count == 14
 
 
 def test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_2ft_no_unused():

From bb27240e3fa8f55f4f60bd3b91b17ff4d35a3953 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Jack Roberts <jroberts@turing.ac.uk>
Date: Fri, 26 Jul 2024 08:59:55 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 05/11] add max transfers arg to opt/replay/pipeline scripts

---
 airsenal/scripts/airsenal_run_pipeline.py       |  9 ++++++---
 .../scripts/fill_transfersuggestion_table.py    | 17 +++++++++++++----
 airsenal/scripts/replay_season.py               | 12 ++++++++++++
 3 files changed, 31 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-)

diff --git a/airsenal/scripts/airsenal_run_pipeline.py b/airsenal/scripts/airsenal_run_pipeline.py
index 48dda293..35ce28f0 100644
--- a/airsenal/scripts/airsenal_run_pipeline.py
+++ b/airsenal/scripts/airsenal_run_pipeline.py
@@ -110,8 +110,11 @@
 )
 @click.option(
     "--max_transfers",
-    help="specify maximum number of transfers to be made each gameweek (defaults to 2)",
-    type=click.IntRange(min=0, max=2),
+    help=(
+        "specify maximum number of transfers to consider each gameweek [EXPERIMENTAL: "
+        "increasing this value above 2 will make the optimisation extremely slow!]"
+    ),
+    type=click.IntRange(min=0, max=5),
     default=2,
 )
 @click.option(
@@ -361,7 +364,7 @@ def run_optimize_squad(
             fpl_team_id=fpl_team_id,
             num_thread=num_thread,
             chip_gameweeks=chips_played,
-            max_transfers=max_transfers,
+            max_opt_transfers=max_transfers,
             max_total_hit=max_hit,
             allow_unused_transfers=allow_unused,
         )
diff --git a/airsenal/scripts/fill_transfersuggestion_table.py b/airsenal/scripts/fill_transfersuggestion_table.py
index af8037b2..2a19177d 100644
--- a/airsenal/scripts/fill_transfersuggestion_table.py
+++ b/airsenal/scripts/fill_transfersuggestion_table.py
@@ -412,7 +412,7 @@ def run_optimization(
     num_free_transfers: Optional[int] = None,
     max_total_hit: Optional[int] = None,
     allow_unused_transfers: bool = False,
-    max_transfers: int = 2,
+    max_opt_transfers: int = 2,
     num_iterations: int = 100,
     num_thread: int = 4,
     profile: bool = False,
@@ -517,7 +517,7 @@ def run_optimization(
         free_transfers=num_free_transfers,
         max_total_hit=max_total_hit,
         allow_unused_transfers=allow_unused_transfers,
-        max_opt_transfers=max_transfers,
+        max_opt_transfers=max_opt_transfers,
         chip_gw_dict=chip_gw_dict,
         max_free_transfers=max_free_transfers,
     )
@@ -575,7 +575,7 @@ def update_progress(increment=1, index=None):
                 chip_gw_dict,
                 max_total_hit,
                 allow_unused_transfers,
-                max_transfers,
+                max_opt_transfers,
                 num_iterations,
                 update_progress,
                 reset_progress,
@@ -758,6 +758,15 @@ def main():
         help="if set, include strategies that waste free transfers",
         action="store_true",
     )
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--max_transfers",
+        help=(
+            "maximum number of transfers to consider each gameweek [EXPERIMENTAL: "
+            "increasing this value above 2 will make the optimisation extremely slow!]"
+        ),
+        type=int,
+        default=2,
+    )
     parser.add_argument(
         "--num_iterations",
         help="how many iterations to use for Wildcard/Free Hit optimization",
@@ -842,7 +851,7 @@ def main():
             num_free_transfers,
             max_total_hit,
             allow_unused_transfers,
-            2,
+            args.max_transfers,
             num_iterations,
             num_thread,
             profile,
diff --git a/airsenal/scripts/replay_season.py b/airsenal/scripts/replay_season.py
index aabb39a3..b8d45528 100644
--- a/airsenal/scripts/replay_season.py
+++ b/airsenal/scripts/replay_season.py
@@ -64,6 +64,7 @@ def replay_season(
     team_model: str = "extended",
     team_model_args: dict = {"epsilon": 0.0},
     fpl_team_id: Optional[int] = None,
+    max_opt_transfers: int = 2,
 ) -> None:
     start = datetime.now()
     if gameweek_end is None:
@@ -130,6 +131,7 @@ def replay_season(
                 fpl_team_id=fpl_team_id,
                 num_thread=num_thread,
                 is_replay=True,
+                max_opt_transfers=max_opt_transfers,
             )
         gw_result["starting_11"] = []
         gw_result["subs"] = []
@@ -227,6 +229,15 @@ def main():
         type=float,
         default=0.0,
     )
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--max_transfers",
+        help=(
+            "maximum number of transfers to consider each gameweek [EXPERIMENTAL: "
+            "increasing this value above 2 will make the optimisation extremely slow!]"
+        ),
+        type=int,
+        default=2,
+    )
 
     args = parser.parse_args()
     if args.resume and not args.fpl_team_id:
@@ -251,6 +262,7 @@ def main():
                 fpl_team_id=args.fpl_team_id,
                 team_model=args.team_model,
                 team_model_args={"epsilon": args.epsilon},
+                max_opt_transfers=args.max_transfers,
             )
             n_completed += 1
 

From 95ac6372040a364fcfb8e629d8fe14fb1fcb6039 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Jack Roberts <jroberts@turing.ac.uk>
Date: Wed, 21 Aug 2024 11:43:54 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 06/11] allow more than 2 transfers in make_best_transfers

---
 airsenal/framework/optimization_transfers.py | 15 +++++++++++++++
 1 file changed, 15 insertions(+)

diff --git a/airsenal/framework/optimization_transfers.py b/airsenal/framework/optimization_transfers.py
index ac754359..0e8e8700 100644
--- a/airsenal/framework/optimization_transfers.py
+++ b/airsenal/framework/optimization_transfers.py
@@ -388,6 +388,21 @@ def make_best_transfers(
         players_out = [p for p in _out if p not in _in]  # remove duplicates
         transfer_dict = {"in": players_in, "out": players_out}
 
+    elif isinstance(num_transfers, int) and num_transfers > 2:
+        new_squad, players_out, players_in = make_random_transfers(
+            squad,
+            tag,
+            nsubs=num_transfers,
+            gw_range=gameweeks,
+            root_gw=root_gw,
+            num_iter=num_iter,
+            update_func_and_args=update_func_and_args,
+            season=season,
+            bench_boost_gw=bench_boost_gw,
+            triple_captain_gw=triple_captain_gw,
+        )
+        transfer_dict = {"in": players_in, "out": players_out}
+
     else:
         raise RuntimeError(f"Unrecognized value for num_transfers: {num_transfers}")
 

From 24a15346f94f319315eb62e38826f6ea8bc7567d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Jack Roberts <jroberts@turing.ac.uk>
Date: Sun, 15 Sep 2024 22:07:40 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 07/11] hotfix counting baseline strategy

relies on baseline strategy being first if present
---
 airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py | 24 +++++++++++++-----------
 1 file changed, 13 insertions(+), 11 deletions(-)

diff --git a/airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py b/airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py
index 5440b11e..c28ad9d6 100644
--- a/airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py
+++ b/airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py
@@ -467,8 +467,8 @@ def next_week_transfers(
 
     if not allow_unused_transfers and ft_available == max_free_transfers:
         # Force at least 1 free transfer if a free transfer will be lost otherwise.
-        # NOTE: This will exclude the baseline strategy when allow_unused_transfers
-        # is False. Re-add it outside this function in that case.
+        # NOTE: This can cause the baseline strategy to be excluded. Re-add it outside
+        # this function in that case.
         ft_choices = list(range(1, max_opt_transfers + 1))
     else:
         ft_choices = list(range(max_opt_transfers + 1))
@@ -610,17 +610,19 @@ def count_expected_outputs(
 
         strategies = new_strategies
 
-    # if allow_unused_transfers is False baseline of no transfers will be removed above,
-    # add it back in here, apart from edge cases where it's already included.
-    if not allow_unused_transfers and (
-        gw_ahead > 1 or (gw_ahead == 1 and init_free_transfers == max_free_transfers)
-    ):
-        baseline_strat_dict = {
-            "players_in": {gw: [] for gw in range(next_gw, next_gw + gw_ahead)},
-            "chips_played": {},
-        }
+    # if allow_unused_transfers is False baseline of no transfers can be removed above.
+    # Check whether 1st strategy is the baseline and if not add it back in here
+    baseline_strat_dict = {
+        "players_in": {gw: [] for gw in range(next_gw, next_gw + gw_ahead)},
+        "chips_played": {},
+    }
+    if strategies[0][2] != baseline_strat_dict:
         baseline_dict = (max_free_transfers, 0, baseline_strat_dict)
         strategies.insert(0, baseline_dict)
+    # print(strategies)
+    # for s in strategies:
+    #     print("-".join([str(sum(p)) for p in s[2]["players_in"].values()]))
+    # raise RuntimeError("stop here")
     return len(strategies)
 
 

From ae37a786b493442ce79edf68ce86d3bd205e543e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Jack Roberts <jroberts@turing.ac.uk>
Date: Tue, 17 Sep 2024 22:09:35 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 08/11] tidy baseline counting/queueing

---
 airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py      | 71 +++++++++++--------
 airsenal/scripts/airsenal_run_pipeline.py     |  2 +-
 .../scripts/fill_transfersuggestion_table.py  | 14 ++--
 airsenal/scripts/replay_season.py             |  2 +-
 airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py           | 20 +++---
 5 files changed, 59 insertions(+), 50 deletions(-)

diff --git a/airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py b/airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py
index c28ad9d6..9333f229 100644
--- a/airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py
+++ b/airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py
@@ -64,16 +64,17 @@ def calc_points_hit(num_transfers, free_transfers):
     """
     if num_transfers in ["W", "F"]:
         return 0
-    elif isinstance(num_transfers, int):
-        return max(0, 4 * (num_transfers - free_transfers))
-    elif (num_transfers.startswith("B") or num_transfers.startswith("T")) and len(
-        num_transfers
-    ) == 2:
+    if (
+        isinstance(num_transfers, str)
+        and num_transfers.startswith(("B", "T"))
+        and len(num_transfers) == 2
+    ):
         num_transfers = int(num_transfers[-1])
-        return max(0, 4 * (num_transfers - free_transfers))
-    else:
+    if not isinstance(num_transfers, int):
         raise RuntimeError(f"Unexpected argument for num_transfers {num_transfers}")
 
+    return max(0, 4 * (num_transfers - free_transfers))
+
 
 def calc_free_transfers(
     num_transfers, prev_free_transfers, max_free_transfers=MAX_FREE_TRANSFERS
@@ -85,16 +86,19 @@ def calc_free_transfers(
     """
     if num_transfers in ["W", "F"]:
         return prev_free_transfers  # changed in 24/25 season, previously 1
-    elif isinstance(num_transfers, int):
-        return max(1, min(max_free_transfers, 1 + prev_free_transfers - num_transfers))
-    elif (num_transfers.startswith("B") or num_transfers.startswith("T")) and len(
-        num_transfers
-    ) == 2:
-        # take the 'x' out of Bx or Tx
+
+    if (
+        isinstance(num_transfers, str)
+        and num_transfers.startswith(("B", "T"))
+        and len(num_transfers) == 2
+    ):
+        # take the 'x' out of Bx or Tx (bench boost or triple captain with x transfers)
         num_transfers = int(num_transfers[-1])
-        return max(1, min(max_free_transfers, 1 + prev_free_transfers - num_transfers))
-    else:
-        raise RuntimeError(f"Unexpected argument for num_transfers {num_transfers}")
+
+    if not isinstance(num_transfers, int):
+        raise ValueError(f"Unexpected input for num_transfers {num_transfers}")
+
+    return max(1, min(max_free_transfers, 1 + prev_free_transfers - num_transfers))
 
 
 def get_starting_squad(
@@ -538,15 +542,15 @@ def next_week_transfers(
 
 
 def count_expected_outputs(
-    gw_ahead,
-    next_gw=NEXT_GAMEWEEK,
-    free_transfers=1,
-    max_total_hit=None,
-    allow_unused_transfers=True,
-    max_opt_transfers=2,
-    chip_gw_dict={},
-    max_free_transfers=MAX_FREE_TRANSFERS,
-):
+    gw_ahead: int,
+    next_gw: int = NEXT_GAMEWEEK,
+    free_transfers: int = 1,
+    max_total_hit: Optional[int] = None,
+    allow_unused_transfers: bool = True,
+    max_opt_transfers: int = 2,
+    chip_gw_dict: dict = {},
+    max_free_transfers: int = MAX_FREE_TRANSFERS,
+) -> tuple[int, bool]:
     """
     Count the number of possible transfer and chip strategies for gw_ahead gameweeks
     ahead, subject to:
@@ -558,6 +562,13 @@ def count_expected_outputs(
     are available), if allow_unused_transfers is False.
     * Make a maximum of max_opt_transfers transfers each gameweek.
     * Each chip only allowed once.
+
+    Returns
+    -------
+        Tuple of int: number of strategies that will be computed, and bool: whether the
+        baseline strategy will be excluded from the main optimization tree and will need
+        to be computed separately (this can be the case if allow_unused_transfers is
+        False). Either way, the total count of strategies will include the baseline.
     """
 
     init_strat_dict = {
@@ -619,11 +630,11 @@ def count_expected_outputs(
     if strategies[0][2] != baseline_strat_dict:
         baseline_dict = (max_free_transfers, 0, baseline_strat_dict)
         strategies.insert(0, baseline_dict)
-    # print(strategies)
-    # for s in strategies:
-    #     print("-".join([str(sum(p)) for p in s[2]["players_in"].values()]))
-    # raise RuntimeError("stop here")
-    return len(strategies)
+        baseline_excluded = True
+    else:
+        baseline_excluded = False
+
+    return len(strategies), baseline_excluded
 
 
 def get_discount_factor(next_gw, pred_gw, discount_type="exp", discount=14 / 15):
diff --git a/airsenal/scripts/airsenal_run_pipeline.py b/airsenal/scripts/airsenal_run_pipeline.py
index 35ce28f0..f777a720 100644
--- a/airsenal/scripts/airsenal_run_pipeline.py
+++ b/airsenal/scripts/airsenal_run_pipeline.py
@@ -112,7 +112,7 @@
     "--max_transfers",
     help=(
         "specify maximum number of transfers to consider each gameweek [EXPERIMENTAL: "
-        "increasing this value above 2 will make the optimisation extremely slow!]"
+        "increasing this value above 2 may make the optimisation very slow!]"
     ),
     type=click.IntRange(min=0, max=5),
     default=2,
diff --git a/airsenal/scripts/fill_transfersuggestion_table.py b/airsenal/scripts/fill_transfersuggestion_table.py
index 2a19177d..bc8182db 100644
--- a/airsenal/scripts/fill_transfersuggestion_table.py
+++ b/airsenal/scripts/fill_transfersuggestion_table.py
@@ -473,7 +473,7 @@ def run_optimization(
     # if we got to here, we can assume we are optimizing an existing squad.
 
     # How many free transfers are we starting with?
-    if not num_free_transfers:
+    if num_free_transfers is None:
         num_free_transfers = get_free_transfers(
             fpl_team_id,
             gameweeks[0],
@@ -511,7 +511,7 @@ def run_optimization(
     # number of nodes in tree will be something like 3^num_weeks unless we allow
     # a "chip" such as wildcard or free hit, in which case it gets complicated
     num_weeks = len(gameweeks)
-    num_expected_outputs = count_expected_outputs(
+    num_expected_outputs, baseline_excluded = count_expected_outputs(
         num_weeks,
         next_gw=gameweeks[0],
         free_transfers=num_free_transfers,
@@ -546,9 +546,7 @@ def update_progress(increment=1, index=None):
             progress_bars[index].update(increment)
             progress_bars[index].refresh()
 
-    if not allow_unused_transfers and (
-        num_weeks > 1 or (num_weeks == 1 and num_free_transfers == 2)
-    ):
+    if baseline_excluded:
         # if we are excluding unused transfers the tree may not include the baseline
         # strategy. In those cases quickly calculate and save it here first.
         save_baseline_score(starting_squad, gameweeks, tag)
@@ -704,8 +702,8 @@ def sanity_check_args(args: argparse.Namespace) -> bool:
         args.gameweek_end and not args.gameweek_start
     ):
         raise RuntimeError("Need to specify both gameweek_start and gameweek_end")
-    if args.num_free_transfers and args.num_free_transfers not in range(1, 3):
-        raise RuntimeError("Number of free transfers must be 1 or 2")
+    if args.num_free_transfers and args.num_free_transfers not in range(6):
+        raise RuntimeError("Number of free transfers must be 0 to 5")
     return True
 
 
@@ -762,7 +760,7 @@ def main():
         "--max_transfers",
         help=(
             "maximum number of transfers to consider each gameweek [EXPERIMENTAL: "
-            "increasing this value above 2 will make the optimisation extremely slow!]"
+            "increasing this value above 2 make the optimisation very slow!]"
         ),
         type=int,
         default=2,
diff --git a/airsenal/scripts/replay_season.py b/airsenal/scripts/replay_season.py
index b8d45528..881809cd 100644
--- a/airsenal/scripts/replay_season.py
+++ b/airsenal/scripts/replay_season.py
@@ -233,7 +233,7 @@ def main():
         "--max_transfers",
         help=(
             "maximum number of transfers to consider each gameweek [EXPERIMENTAL: "
-            "increasing this value above 2 will make the optimisation extremely slow!]"
+            "increasing this value above 2 may make the optimisation very slow!]"
         ),
         type=int,
         default=2,
diff --git a/airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py b/airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py
index 347122aa..39388e4b 100644
--- a/airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py
+++ b/airsenal/tests/test_optimization.py
@@ -562,7 +562,7 @@ def test_next_week_transfers_play_triple_captain_max_transfers_3():
 
 def test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_no_constraints():
     # No constraints or chips, expect 3**num_gameweeks strategies
-    count = count_expected_outputs(
+    count, _ = count_expected_outputs(
         3,
         free_transfers=1,
         max_total_hit=None,
@@ -577,7 +577,7 @@ def test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_no_constraints():
 def test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_no_constraints_max5():
     # No constraints or chips, expect 6**num_gameweeks strategies (0 to 5 transfers
     # each week)
-    count = count_expected_outputs(
+    count, _ = count_expected_outputs(
         3,
         free_transfers=1,
         max_total_hit=None,
@@ -599,7 +599,7 @@ def test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_zero_hit():
     (0, 2, 2), (1, 1, 2), (1, 2, 0), (1, 2, 1), (1, 2, 2), (2, 0, 0), (2, 0, 1),
     (2, 0, 2), (2, 1, 0), (2, 1, 1), (2, 1, 2), (2, 2, 0), (2, 2, 1), (2, 2, 2)
     """
-    count = count_expected_outputs(
+    count, _ = count_expected_outputs(
         3,
         free_transfers=1,
         max_total_hit=0,
@@ -617,7 +617,7 @@ def test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_zero_hit_max5():
     Adds (0, 0, 3) to valid strategies compared to
     test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_zero_hit above
     """
-    count = count_expected_outputs(
+    count, _ = count_expected_outputs(
         3,
         free_transfers=1,
         max_total_hit=0,
@@ -638,7 +638,7 @@ def test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_2ft_no_unused():
     (0, 0, 1), (0, 0, 2), (0, 1, 0), (0, 1, 1), (0, 1, 2), (0, 2, 0), (0, 2, 1),
     (0, 2, 2), (1, 0, 0), (1, 0, 1), (1, 0, 2), (1, 1, 0), (2, 0, 0)
     """
-    count = count_expected_outputs(
+    count, _ = count_expected_outputs(
         3,
         free_transfers=2,
         max_total_hit=None,
@@ -661,7 +661,7 @@ def test_count_expected_outputs_no_chips_5ft_no_unused_max5():
     (4, 0), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5),
     (5, 0), (5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5),
     """
-    count = count_expected_outputs(
+    count, _ = count_expected_outputs(
         2,
         free_transfers=5,
         max_total_hit=None,
@@ -680,7 +680,7 @@ def test_count_expected_wildcard_allowed_no_constraints():
     (0, 0), (0, 1), (0, 2), (0, 'W'), (1, 0), (1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 'W'), (2, 0),
     (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 'W'), ('W', 0), ('W', 1), ('W', 2)
     """
-    count = count_expected_outputs(
+    count, _ = count_expected_outputs(
         2,
         free_transfers=1,
         max_total_hit=None,
@@ -705,7 +705,7 @@ def count_expected_bench_boost_allowed_no_constraints():
     (2, 'B2'), ('B0', 0), ('B0', 1), ('B0', 2), ('B1', 0), ('B1', 1), ('B1', 2),
     ('B2', 0), ('B2', 1), ('B2', 2),
     """
-    count = count_expected_outputs(
+    count, _ = count_expected_outputs(
         2,
         free_transfers=1,
         max_total_hit=None,
@@ -727,7 +727,7 @@ def count_expected_play_wildcard_no_constraints():
     Strategies:
     ("W",0), ("W,1), ("W",2)
     """
-    count = count_expected_outputs(
+    count, _ = count_expected_outputs(
         2,
         free_transfers=1,
         max_total_hit=None,
@@ -748,7 +748,7 @@ def count_expected_play_free_hit_no_unused():
     Strategies:
     (0,0), ("F",1), ("F",2)
     """
-    count = count_expected_outputs(
+    count, _ = count_expected_outputs(
         2,
         free_transfers=2,
         max_total_hit=None,

From be3d6d9da5ab41a692e053ee60c004f6cef452de Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Jack Roberts <jroberts@turing.ac.uk>
Date: Tue, 17 Sep 2024 22:14:17 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 09/11] remove duplicate computation of new free transfers

Already handled by `next_week_transfers` when computing new strategies to add to the queue.

Doing this twice before is probably a long standing bug. Could have meant we were over-estimating free transfers available, and therefore under-counting hits.
---
 airsenal/scripts/fill_transfersuggestion_table.py | 4 ----
 1 file changed, 4 deletions(-)

diff --git a/airsenal/scripts/fill_transfersuggestion_table.py b/airsenal/scripts/fill_transfersuggestion_table.py
index bc8182db..94644a83 100644
--- a/airsenal/scripts/fill_transfersuggestion_table.py
+++ b/airsenal/scripts/fill_transfersuggestion_table.py
@@ -40,7 +40,6 @@
 from airsenal.framework.optimization_transfers import make_best_transfers
 from airsenal.framework.optimization_utils import (
     MAX_FREE_TRANSFERS,
-    calc_free_transfers,
     calc_points_hit,
     check_tag_valid,
     count_expected_outputs,
@@ -215,9 +214,6 @@ def optimize(
             strat_dict["discount_factor"][gw] = discount_factor
             strat_dict["players_in"][gw] = transfers["in"]
             strat_dict["players_out"][gw] = transfers["out"]
-            free_transfers = calc_free_transfers(
-                num_transfers, free_transfers, max_free_transfers
-            )
 
             depth += 1
 

From baa1039fa8537c457c5d543f8904e37a7ad38598 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Jack Roberts <jroberts@turing.ac.uk>
Date: Tue, 17 Sep 2024 22:56:42 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 10/11] docstring

---
 airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py | 4 ++--
 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-)

diff --git a/airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py b/airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py
index 9333f229..bfbb63e8 100644
--- a/airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py
+++ b/airsenal/framework/optimization_utils.py
@@ -81,8 +81,8 @@ def calc_free_transfers(
 ):
     """
     We get one extra free transfer per week, unless we use a wildcard or
-    free hit, but we can't have more than 2.  So we should only be able
-    to return 1 or 2.
+    free hit, but we can't have more than 5.  So we should only be able
+    to return 1 to 5.
     """
     if num_transfers in ["W", "F"]:
         return prev_free_transfers  # changed in 24/25 season, previously 1

From 5e1a6309601cae5d5ab2b9c1d9c16bde3a9b4909 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Jack Roberts <jroberts@turing.ac.uk>
Date: Wed, 18 Sep 2024 19:57:45 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 11/11] airsenal 1.9

---
 pyproject.toml | 2 +-
 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-)

diff --git a/pyproject.toml b/pyproject.toml
index bfcad539..8f380b5a 100644
--- a/pyproject.toml
+++ b/pyproject.toml
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 [tool.poetry]
 name = "airsenal"
-version = "1.8.0"
+version = "1.9.0"
 description = "AI manager for Fantasy Premier League"
 authors = [
 	"Angus Williams <anguswilliams91@gmail.com>",