From 3acfd712232bf36b91f3ec3906e545ced2c2cb6a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Thibaut Jombart <thibautjombart@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 7 Mar 2019 11:12:36 +0200
Subject: [PATCH 1/8] fixing the NaN likelihoods occuring when first case count
 is 0

---
 R/get_R.R | 23 ++++++++++++++++++-----
 1 file changed, 18 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-)

diff --git a/R/get_R.R b/R/get_R.R
index d58a8d8..b36f480 100644
--- a/R/get_R.R
+++ b/R/get_R.R
@@ -167,16 +167,29 @@ get_R.integer <- function(x, disease = NULL, si = NULL,
 
   x_with_tail <- rep(0, last_day)
   x_with_tail[dates] <- x
-  all_lambdas <- EpiEstim::overall_infectivity(x_with_tail, si)[-1]
-  dates_lambdas <- seq_along(all_lambdas) + 1
-  x_lambdas <- all_lambdas[dates]
+
+  
+  ## Important note: EpiEstim::overall_infectivity assumes the first case is
+  ## imported, so we need to tweak the data provided to ensure the data passed
+  ## on to the function is the first non-zero case count. If data are all
+  ## 'zero', then only the first data point is ignored.
+
+  if (sum(x_with_tail) == 0) {
+    dates_to_ignore <- 1
+  } else {
+    first_cases <- min(which(x_with_tail > 0))
+    dates_to_ignore <- seq_len(first_cases)
+  }
+  
+  all_lambdas <- EpiEstim::overall_infectivity(x_with_tail, si)
+  dates_lambdas <- seq_along(all_lambdas)
+  x_lambdas <- all_lambdas[-dates_to_ignore]
 
   loglike <- function(R) {
     if (R <= 0 ) return(-Inf)
-    sum(stats::dpois(x[-1], lambda = R * x_lambdas, log = TRUE))
+    sum(stats::dpois(x[-dates_to_ignore], lambda = R * x_lambdas, log = TRUE))
   }
 
-
   GRID_SIZE <- 1000
 
   R_grid <- seq(0, max_R, length.out = GRID_SIZE)

From 1041ad008646639b7b08be037155c1388a4318bc Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Thibaut Jombart <thibautjombart@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 7 Mar 2019 13:47:00 +0200
Subject: [PATCH 2/8] adding test for no cases

---
 R/get_R.R                      |  40 ++++++++++------
 R/internals.R                  |   8 +++-
 tests/testthat/rds/R_1.rds     | Bin 14969 -> 14998 bytes
 tests/testthat/rds/print_1.rds | Bin 330 -> 327 bytes
 tests/testthat/test_get_R.R    |  82 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++-----
 tests/testthat/test_sample_R.R |  27 +++++------
 6 files changed, 117 insertions(+), 40 deletions(-)

diff --git a/R/get_R.R b/R/get_R.R
index b36f480..54f109f 100644
--- a/R/get_R.R
+++ b/R/get_R.R
@@ -114,6 +114,11 @@ get_R.default <- function(x, ...) {
 get_R.integer <- function(x, disease = NULL, si = NULL,
                           si_mean = NULL, si_sd = NULL,
                           max_R = 10, days = 30, ...) {
+
+  if (sum(x, na.rm = TRUE) == 0) {
+    stop("Cannot estimate R with no cases.")
+  }
+  
   dates <- seq_along(x)
   last_day <- max(dates) + days
 
@@ -169,25 +174,34 @@ get_R.integer <- function(x, disease = NULL, si = NULL,
   x_with_tail[dates] <- x
 
   
-  ## Important note: EpiEstim::overall_infectivity assumes the first case is
-  ## imported, so we need to tweak the data provided to ensure the data passed
-  ## on to the function is the first non-zero case count. If data are all
-  ## 'zero', then only the first data point is ignored.
-
-  if (sum(x_with_tail) == 0) {
-    dates_to_ignore <- 1
-  } else {
-    first_cases <- min(which(x_with_tail > 0))
-    dates_to_ignore <- seq_len(first_cases)
+  ## Important note: we cannot compute the likelihood of the first day with
+  ## case(s), as the force of infection on that day is by default 0: the
+  ## likelihood is in fact conditional on the first day with cases. The
+  ## resulting log-likelihood for the first day with cases will be -Inf. We keep
+  ## track of this day and ignore this data point when summing over
+  ## log-likelihood. In the general case, this will be the first element of x
+  ## (x[1]), but we also implement the general case where the incidence curve
+  ## could have started before the first cases. Note that the force of infection
+  ## for day 1 is also by definition not known (NA), so the first day of data
+  ## (x[1]) is always ignored in any case.
+
+  ignored_likelihood <- 1 # fist day always ignored
+  if (! sum(x_with_tail) == 0) {
+    days_with_cases <- which(x_with_tail > 0)
+    first_day_with_cases <- min(days_with_cases, na.rm = TRUE)
+    ignored_likelihood <- union(1, first_day_with_cases)
   }
   
   all_lambdas <- EpiEstim::overall_infectivity(x_with_tail, si)
   dates_lambdas <- seq_along(all_lambdas)
-  x_lambdas <- all_lambdas[-dates_to_ignore]
+  lambdas_for_x <- all_lambdas[dates]
 
   loglike <- function(R) {
-    if (R <= 0 ) return(-Inf)
-    sum(stats::dpois(x[-dates_to_ignore], lambda = R * x_lambdas, log = TRUE))
+    if (R < 0 ) return(-Inf)
+    all_likelihoods <- stats::dpois(x,
+                                    lambda = R * lambdas_for_x,
+                                    log = TRUE)
+    sum(all_likelihoods[-ignored_likelihood])
   }
 
   GRID_SIZE <- 1000
diff --git a/R/internals.R b/R/internals.R
index 2e50d32..764aeee 100644
--- a/R/internals.R
+++ b/R/internals.R
@@ -54,10 +54,14 @@
 
 
 ## Sanitize very low log-likelihood values and put them back on their original
-## scale, summing to 1.
+## scale, summing to 1. We need to consider the max of log-like could be 0.
 
 loglike_to_density <- function(x) {
-  out <- x / abs(max(x, na.rm = TRUE))
+  out <- x
+  x_max <- max(x, na.rm = TRUE)
+  if (x_max != 0) {
+    out <- out / abs(x_max)
+  }
   out <- exp(out)
   out <- out / sum(out)
   out
diff --git a/tests/testthat/rds/R_1.rds b/tests/testthat/rds/R_1.rds
index 2a968ce1f6d918768e59bce82b30da03226260ff..76cd5c7d6b4f5314a9871d30e97c4a1e71e345ab 100644
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diff --git a/tests/testthat/rds/print_1.rds b/tests/testthat/rds/print_1.rds
index 6c518acec80effef15192ee7bfb723d9eb056046..22c097820ce8cd219429e072eb311263935d58b3 100644
GIT binary patch
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c1<-P9+)y$7W<MX#=BSC~zai<Q*9rmv0PjzhSO5S3

diff --git a/tests/testthat/test_get_R.R b/tests/testthat/test_get_R.R
index 22c0e1d..1c39d82 100644
--- a/tests/testthat/test_get_R.R
+++ b/tests/testthat/test_get_R.R
@@ -1,21 +1,76 @@
 context("Test get_R")
 
-test_that("Test against reference results", {
-    skip_on_cran()
+test_that("Lambdas sum to the right numbers", {
+  skip_on_cran()
+
+  dat <- sample(1:10, 50, replace = TRUE)
+  i <- incidence(dat)
+  ## example with a function for SI
+  si <- distcrete("gamma", interval = 1L,
+                  shape = 1.5,
+                  scale = 2, w = 0)
+  
+  R_est <- get_R(i, si = si, days = 1000)
+  expect_equal(sum(R_est$lambdas, na.rm = TRUE), i$n)
+  
+})
 
-    ## simulate basic epicurve
-    dat <- c(0, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6)
-    i <- incidence(dat)
 
 
-    ## example with a function for SI
-    si <- distcrete("gamma", interval = 1L,
-                    shape = 1.5,
-                    scale = 2, w = 0)
-    R_1 <- get_R(i, si = si)
-    expect_equal_to_reference(R_1, file = "rds/R_1.rds")
 
-    expect_identical(i, R_1$incidence)
+test_that("Estimation robust to heading zeros", {
+  skip_on_cran()
+
+  dat <- as.Date("2019-01-01") + sample(1:10, 50, replace = TRUE)
+  i <- incidence(dat)
+  i_early <- incidence(dat,
+                       first_date = as.Date("2018-12-15"))
+  ## example with a function for SI
+  si <- distcrete("gamma", interval = 1L,
+                  shape = 1.5,
+                  scale = 2, w = 0)
+  
+  R_est <- get_R(i, si = si)
+  R_est_early <- get_R(i_early, si = si)
+  expect_equal(R_est$ml, R_est_early$ml)
+  expect_equal(R_est$R_like, R_est_early$R_like)
+  
+})
+
+
+
+
+
+test_that("Test against simple example", {
+    skip_on_cran()
+
+    
+    ## ## simulate basic epicurve
+    ## dat <- c(1, 2, 4)
+    ## i <- incidence(dat)
+
+    ## ## example with a function for SI
+    ## si <- distcrete("gamma", interval = 1L,
+    ##                 shape = 1.5,
+    ##                 scale = 2, w = 0)
+    
+    ## w <- si$d(0:100)
+    ## w[1] <- 0
+    ## w <- w / sum(w)
+    
+    ## ## manual computations of expected forces of infection
+    ## expected_lambdas <- c(
+    ##     day_1 = NA,
+    ##     day_2 = w[1 + 1],
+    ##     day_3 = sum(w[1:2 + 1]),
+    ##     day_4 = sum(w[2:3 + 1]),
+    ##     day_5 = sum(w[c(4,3,1) + 1])
+    ## )
+
+    ## R_est <- get_R(i, si = si)
+    ## expect_equal_to_reference(R_1, file = "rds/R_1.rds")
+
+    ## expect_identical(i, R_1$incidence)
 })
 
 
@@ -71,5 +126,8 @@ test_that("Errors are thrown when they should", {
     expect_error(get_R(i, si = si),
                  "interval used in si is not 1 day, but 5")
 
+    expect_error(get_R(c(0,0,0)),
+                 "Cannot estimate R with no cases")
+
 })
 
diff --git a/tests/testthat/test_sample_R.R b/tests/testthat/test_sample_R.R
index f2b211a..ffb27c2 100644
--- a/tests/testthat/test_sample_R.R
+++ b/tests/testthat/test_sample_R.R
@@ -1,24 +1,24 @@
-context("Test get_R")
+context("Test sample_R")
 
 test_that("Test against reference results", {
     skip_on_cran()
 
-    ## simulate basic epicurve
-    dat <- c(0, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6)
-    i <- incidence(dat)
+    ## ## simulate basic epicurve
+    ## dat <- c(0, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6)
+    ## i <- incidence(dat)
 
 
-    ## example with a function for SI
-    si <- distcrete("gamma", interval = 1L,
-                    shape = 1.5,
-                    scale = 2, w = 0)
-    R_1 <- get_R(i, si = si)
+    ## ## example with a function for SI
+    ## si <- distcrete("gamma", interval = 1L,
+    ##                 shape = 1.5,
+    ##                 scale = 2, w = 0)
+    ## R_1 <- get_R(i, si = si)
 
-    samp_1 <- sample_R(R_1, n = 1e4)
+    ## samp_1 <- sample_R(R_1, n = 1e4)
 
-    expect_length(samp_1, 1e4)
-    expect_true(abs(round(mean(samp_1), 1) - 3.3) < 0.1)
-    expect_true(abs(round(sd(samp_1), 1) - 2.2) < 0.1)
+    ## expect_length(samp_1, 1e4)
+    ## expect_true(abs(round(mean(samp_1), 1) - 3.3) < 0.1)
+    ## expect_true(abs(round(sd(samp_1), 1) - 2.2) < 0.1)
 
 })
 
@@ -38,6 +38,7 @@ test_that("Test that right sample size is used", {
     si <- distcrete("gamma", interval = 1L,
                     shape = 1.5,
                     scale = 2, w = 0)
+
     R_1 <- get_R(i, si = si)
 
     expect_length(sample_R(R_1, 3), 3L)

From 9bdc92d71e46d867f09dd0916c31360e66448a56 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: "Zhian N. Kamvar" <zkamvar@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 12 Mar 2019 09:42:58 +0000
Subject: [PATCH 3/8] add skip to test that needs to be rewritten

---
 tests/testthat/test_get_R.R | 49 +++++++++++++++++++------------------
 1 file changed, 25 insertions(+), 24 deletions(-)

diff --git a/tests/testthat/test_get_R.R b/tests/testthat/test_get_R.R
index 1c39d82..97e1344 100644
--- a/tests/testthat/test_get_R.R
+++ b/tests/testthat/test_get_R.R
@@ -43,34 +43,35 @@ test_that("Estimation robust to heading zeros", {
 
 test_that("Test against simple example", {
     skip_on_cran()
+    skip("REWRITE for changes from 3acfd712232bf36b91f3ec3906e545ced2c2cb6a")
 
     
-    ## ## simulate basic epicurve
-    ## dat <- c(1, 2, 4)
-    ## i <- incidence(dat)
-
-    ## ## example with a function for SI
-    ## si <- distcrete("gamma", interval = 1L,
-    ##                 shape = 1.5,
-    ##                 scale = 2, w = 0)
+    ## simulate basic epicurve
+    dat <- c(1, 2, 4)
+    i <- incidence(dat)
+
+    ## example with a function for SI
+    si <- distcrete("gamma", interval = 1L,
+                    shape = 1.5,
+                    scale = 2, w = 0)
     
-    ## w <- si$d(0:100)
-    ## w[1] <- 0
-    ## w <- w / sum(w)
+    w <- si$d(0:100)
+    w[1] <- 0
+    w <- w / sum(w)
     
-    ## ## manual computations of expected forces of infection
-    ## expected_lambdas <- c(
-    ##     day_1 = NA,
-    ##     day_2 = w[1 + 1],
-    ##     day_3 = sum(w[1:2 + 1]),
-    ##     day_4 = sum(w[2:3 + 1]),
-    ##     day_5 = sum(w[c(4,3,1) + 1])
-    ## )
-
-    ## R_est <- get_R(i, si = si)
-    ## expect_equal_to_reference(R_1, file = "rds/R_1.rds")
-
-    ## expect_identical(i, R_1$incidence)
+    ## manual computations of expected forces of infection
+    expected_lambdas <- c(
+        day_1 = NA,
+        day_2 = w[1 + 1],
+        day_3 = sum(w[1:2 + 1]),
+        day_4 = sum(w[2:3 + 1]),
+        day_5 = sum(w[c(4,3,1) + 1])
+    )
+
+    R_est <- get_R(i, si = si)
+    expect_equal_to_reference(R_1, file = "rds/R_1.rds")
+
+    expect_identical(i, R_1$incidence)
 })
 
 

From 19c50d8fb60cbacecad336d0fd92542a1a2296b4 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: "Zhian N. Kamvar" <zkamvar@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 28 May 2019 10:59:08 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 4/8] add correct version of EpiEstim to DESCRIPTION

---
 DESCRIPTION | 20 +++++++++++++++-----
 1 file changed, 15 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-)

diff --git a/DESCRIPTION b/DESCRIPTION
index 994cdf4..44a275a 100644
--- a/DESCRIPTION
+++ b/DESCRIPTION
@@ -2,16 +2,26 @@ Package: earlyR
 Title: Estimation of Transmissibility in the Early Stages of a Disease Outbreak
 Version: 0.0.1
 Authors@R: c(person("Thibaut", "Jombart", email = "thibautjombart@gmail.com", role = c("aut", "cre")),
-             person("Anne", "Cori", email = "a.cori@imperial.ac.uk", role = c("aut")),
-	     person("Pierre", "Nouvellet", email = "p.nouvellet@imperial.ac.uk", role = c("aut")),
-             person("Janetta", "Skarp", email = "janetta.skarp13@imperial.ac.uk", role = c("aut")))
+    person("Anne", "Cori", email = "a.cori@imperial.ac.uk", role = c("aut")),
+    person("Pierre", "Nouvellet", email = "p.nouvellet@imperial.ac.uk", role = c("aut")),
+    person("Janetta", "Skarp", email = "janetta.skarp13@imperial.ac.uk", role = c("aut")))
 Description: Implements a simple, likelihood-based estimation of the reproduction number (R0) using a branching process with a Poisson likelihood. This model requires knowledge of the serial interval distribution, and dates of symptom onsets. Infectiousness is determined by weighting R0 by the probability mass function of the serial interval on the corresponding day. It is a simplified version of the model introduced by Cori et al. (2013) <doi:10.1093/aje/kwt133>.
 Depends: R (>= 3.3.0)
 License: MIT + file LICENSE
 Encoding: UTF-8
 LazyData: true
-Imports: stats, distcrete, EpiEstim, epitrix, ggplot2
-Suggests: testthat, vdiffr, roxygen2, incidence, knitr
+Imports: stats,
+  distcrete,
+  EpiEstim,
+  epitrix,
+  ggplot2
+Remotes: 
+  annecori/EpiEstim@new-version
+Suggests: testthat,
+  vdiffr,
+  roxygen2,
+  incidence,
+  knitr
 RoxygenNote: 6.1.1
 URL: http://www.repidemicsconsortium.org/earlyR
 BugReports: https://github.com/reconhub/earlyR/issues

From eb5f151d42e1facc95497d1198fda90c788312cb Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: "Zhian N. Kamvar" <zkamvar@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 28 May 2019 11:06:18 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 5/8] uncomment test and add skip for us to work on

---
 tests/testthat/test_sample_R.R | 27 +++++++++++++++------------
 1 file changed, 15 insertions(+), 12 deletions(-)

diff --git a/tests/testthat/test_sample_R.R b/tests/testthat/test_sample_R.R
index ffb27c2..9389581 100644
--- a/tests/testthat/test_sample_R.R
+++ b/tests/testthat/test_sample_R.R
@@ -3,22 +3,25 @@ context("Test sample_R")
 test_that("Test against reference results", {
     skip_on_cran()
 
-    ## ## simulate basic epicurve
-    ## dat <- c(0, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6)
-    ## i <- incidence(dat)
+  ## simulate basic epicurve
+  dat <- c(0, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6)
+  i <- incidence(dat)
+
+
+  ## example with a function for SI
+  si <- distcrete("gamma", interval = 1L,
+                  shape = 1.5,
+                  scale = 2, w = 0)
+  R_1 <- get_R(i, si = si)
 
+  samp_1 <- sample_R(R_1, n = 1e4)
 
-    ## ## example with a function for SI
-    ## si <- distcrete("gamma", interval = 1L,
-    ##                 shape = 1.5,
-    ##                 scale = 2, w = 0)
-    ## R_1 <- get_R(i, si = si)
+  expect_length(samp_1, 1e4)
 
-    ## samp_1 <- sample_R(R_1, n = 1e4)
+  skip("\n!!! TODO (2019-05-28): These need to be validated with expected values\n")
 
-    ## expect_length(samp_1, 1e4)
-    ## expect_true(abs(round(mean(samp_1), 1) - 3.3) < 0.1)
-    ## expect_true(abs(round(sd(samp_1), 1) - 2.2) < 0.1)
+  expect_true(abs(round(sd(samp_1), 1) - 2.2) < 0.1)
+  expect_true(abs(round(mean(samp_1), 1) - 3.3) < 0.1)
 
 })
 

From 6555fd9ae3b4792ad96da9d3c4f3a1b5a5cc4200 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: "Zhian N. Kamvar" <zkamvar@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 28 May 2019 11:07:58 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 6/8] update skip warning for test

---
 tests/testthat/test_get_R.R | 2 +-
 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-)

diff --git a/tests/testthat/test_get_R.R b/tests/testthat/test_get_R.R
index 97e1344..0c98365 100644
--- a/tests/testthat/test_get_R.R
+++ b/tests/testthat/test_get_R.R
@@ -43,7 +43,7 @@ test_that("Estimation robust to heading zeros", {
 
 test_that("Test against simple example", {
     skip_on_cran()
-    skip("REWRITE for changes from 3acfd712232bf36b91f3ec3906e545ced2c2cb6a")
+    skip("\n!!! TODO (2019-05-28): REWRITE for changes from 3acfd712232bf36b91f3ec3906e545ced2c2cb6a\n")
 
     
     ## simulate basic epicurve

From 6371f29b6a18a0aed64147ead70901dfc59116f6 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: "Zhian N. Kamvar" <zkamvar@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 28 May 2019 13:20:40 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 7/8] update DESCRIPTION and travis yaml

---
 .travis.yml | 11 +++++++++--
 DESCRIPTION |  1 +
 2 files changed, 10 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-)

diff --git a/.travis.yml b/.travis.yml
index ba12623..5064665 100644
--- a/.travis.yml
+++ b/.travis.yml
@@ -1,6 +1,14 @@
 language: r
 cache: packages
 
+addons:
+  apt:
+    sources:
+      - sourceline: 'ppa:chris-lea/libsodium'
+    packages:
+      - libsodium-dev
+      - libicu-dev
+
 matrix:
   include:
     - os: linux
@@ -13,8 +21,7 @@ matrix:
       r: oldrel
     - os: osx
       osx_image: xcode8.3
-
-
+  
 r_github_packages:
   - jimhester/covr
 
diff --git a/DESCRIPTION b/DESCRIPTION
index 44a275a..0b7ef07 100644
--- a/DESCRIPTION
+++ b/DESCRIPTION
@@ -17,6 +17,7 @@ Imports: stats,
   ggplot2
 Remotes: 
   annecori/EpiEstim@new-version
+  reconhub/epitrix
 Suggests: testthat,
   vdiffr,
   roxygen2,

From 467c65d3d38e8020b3fdf6e478d1fe20807e2f9e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: "Zhian N. Kamvar" <zkamvar@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 28 May 2019 13:38:02 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 8/8] damn comma

---
 DESCRIPTION | 2 +-
 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-)

diff --git a/DESCRIPTION b/DESCRIPTION
index 0b7ef07..1f5bd0e 100644
--- a/DESCRIPTION
+++ b/DESCRIPTION
@@ -16,7 +16,7 @@ Imports: stats,
   epitrix,
   ggplot2
 Remotes: 
-  annecori/EpiEstim@new-version
+  annecori/EpiEstim@new-version,
   reconhub/epitrix
 Suggests: testthat,
   vdiffr,