papers.bib

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@article{bonfils_competing_2017,
	title = {Competing {Influences} of {Anthropogenic} {Warming}, {ENSO}, and {Plant} {Physiology} on {Future} {Terrestrial} {Aridity}},
	volume = {30},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-17-0005.1},
	number = {17},
	journal = {Journal of Climate},
	author = {Bonfils, C. and Anderson, G. and Santer, B. D. and Phillips, T. J. and Taylor, K. E. and Cuntz, M. and Zelinka, M. D. and Marvel, K. and Cook, B. I. and Cvijanovic, I. and Durack, P. J.},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {6883--6904},
}

@article{caldwell_evaluating_2018,
	title = {Evaluating {Emergent} {Constraints} on {Equilibrium} {Climate} {Sensitivity}},
	volume = {31},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-17-0631.1},
	number = {10},
	journal = {Journal of Climate},
	author = {Caldwell, P. M. and Zelinka, M. D. and Klein, S. A.},
	year = {2018},
	pages = {3921--3942},
}

@article{caldwell_quantifying_2016,
	title = {Quantifying the {Sources} of {Intermodel} {Spread} in {Equilibrium} {Climate} {Sensitivity}},
	volume = {29},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-15-0352.1},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Journal of Climate},
	author = {Caldwell, P. M. and Zelinka, M. D. and Taylor, K. E. and Marvel, K.},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {513--524},
}

@article{caldwell_statistical_2014,
	title = {Statistical significance of climate sensitivity predictors obtained by data mining},
	volume = {41},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1002/2014gl059205},
	number = {5},
	journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
	author = {Caldwell, Peter M. and Bretherton, Christopher S. and Zelinka, Mark D. and Klein, Stephen A. and Santer, Benjamin D. and Sanderson, Benjamin M.},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {1803--1808},
}

@article{ceppi_cloud_2017,
	title = {Cloud feedback mechanisms and their representation in global climate models},
	volume = {8},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1002/wcc.465},
	number = {4},
	journal = {Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change},
	author = {Ceppi, P. and Brient, F. and Zelinka, M. D. and Hartmann, D. L.},
	year = {2017},
}

@article{ceppi_response_2014,
	title = {The response of the {Southern} {Hemispheric} eddy-driven jet to future changes in shortwave radiation in {CMIP5}},
	volume = {41},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1002/2014gl060043},
	number = {9},
	journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
	author = {Ceppi, Paulo and Zelinka, Mark D. and Hartmann, Dennis L.},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {3244--3250},
}

@article{colman_evaluating_2019,
	title = {Evaluating {Cloud} {Feedbacks} and {Rapid} {Responses} in the {ACCESS} {Model}},
	volume = {124},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1029/2018jd029189},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres},
	author = {Colman, R. and Brown, J. R. and Franklin, C. and Hanson, L. and Ye, H. and Zelinka, M. D.},
	year = {2019},
	pages = {350--366},
}

@article{deangelis_observational_2015,
	title = {An observational radiative constraint on hydrologic cycle intensification},
	volume = {528},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1038/nature15770},
	number = {7581},
	journal = {Nature},
	author = {DeAngelis, A. M. and Qu, X. and Zelinka, M. D. and Hall, A.},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {249--+},
}

@article{deangelis_observational_2016,
	title = {An observational radiative constraint on hydrologic cycle intensification (vol 528, pg 249, 2015)},
	volume = {535},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1038/nature17621},
	number = {7613},
	journal = {Nature},
	author = {DeAngelis, A. M. and Qu, X. and Zelinka, M. D. and Hall, A.},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {580--580},
}

@article{forster_evaluating_2013,
	title = {Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the {CMIP5} generation of climate models},
	volume = {118},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1002/jgrd.50174},
	number = {3},
	journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres},
	author = {Forster, Piers M. and Andrews, Timothy and Good, Peter and Gregory, Jonathan M. and Jackson, Lawrence S. and Zelinka, Mark},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {1139--1150},
}

@article{golaz_doe_2019,
	title = {The {DOE} {E3SM} {Coupled} {Model} {Version} 1: {Overview} and {Evaluation} at {Standard} {Resolution}},
	volume = {11},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1029/2018ms001603},
	number = {7},
	journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
	author = {Golaz, J. C. and Caldwell, P. M. and Van Roekel, L. P. and Petersen, M. R. and Tang, Q. and Wolfe, J. D. and Abeshu, G. and Anantharaj, V. and Asay-Davis, X. S. and Bader, D. C. and Baldwin, S. A. and Bisht, G. and Bogenschutz, P. A. and Branstetter, M. and Brunke, M. A. and Brus, S. R. and Burrows, S. M. and Cameron-Smith, P. J. and Donahue, A. S. and Deakin, M. and Easter, R. C. and Evans, K. J. and Feng, Y. and Flanner, M. and Foucar, J. G. and Fyke, J. G. and Griffin, B. M. and Hannay, C. and Harrop, B. E. and Hoffman, M. J. and Hunke, E. C. and Jacob, R. L. and Jacobsen, D. W. and Jeffery, N. and Jones, P. W. and Keen, N. D. and Klein, S. A. and Larson, V. E. and Leung, L. R. and Li, H. Y. and Lin, W. Y. and Lipscomb, W. H. and Ma, P. L. and Mahajan, S. and Maltrud, M. E. and Mametjanov, A. and McClean, J. L. and McCoy, R. B. and Neale, R. B. and Price, S. F. and Qian, Y. and Rasch, P. J. and Eyre, Jejr and Riley, W. J. and Ringler, T. D. and Roberts, A. F. and Roesler, E. L. and Salinger, A. G. and Shaheen, Z. and Shi, X. Y. and Singh, B. and Tang, J. Y. and Taylor, M. A. and Thornton, P. E. and Turner, A. K. and Veneziani, M. and Wan, H. and Wang, H. L. and Wang, S. L. and Williams, D. N. and Wolfram, P. J. and Worley, P. H. and Xie, S. C. and Yang, Y. and Yoon, J. H. and Zelinka, M. D. and Zender, C. S. and Zeng, X. B. and Zhang, C. Z. and Zhang, K. and Zhang, Y. and Zheng, X. and Zhou, T. and Zhu, Q.},
	year = {2019},
	pages = {2089--2129},
}

@article{grise_ozone_2013,
	title = {The ozone hole indirect effect: {Cloud}-radiative anomalies accompanying the poleward shift of the eddy-driven jet in the {Southern} {Hemisphere}},
	volume = {40},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1002/grl.50675},
	number = {14},
	journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
	author = {Grise, Kevin M. and Polvani, Lorenzo M. and Tselioudis, George and Wu, Yutian and Zelinka, Mark D.},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {3688--3692},
}

@article{johnston_diagnosing_2014,
	title = {Diagnosing the average spatio-temporal impact of convective systems - {Part} 2: {A} model intercomparison using satellite data},
	volume = {14},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.5194/acp-14-8701-2014},
	number = {16},
	journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
	author = {Johnston, M. S. and Eliasson, S. and Eriksson, P. and Forbes, R. M. and Gettelman, A. and Raisanen, P. and Zelinka, M. D.},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {8701--8721},
}

@article{johnston_diagnosing_2013,
	title = {Diagnosing the average spatio-temporal impact of convective systems - {Part} 1: {A} methodology for evaluating climate models},
	volume = {13},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.5194/acp-13-12043-2013},
	number = {23},
	journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
	author = {Johnston, M. S. and Eliasson, S. and Eriksson, P. and Forbes, R. M. and Wyser, K. and Zelinka, M. D.},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {12043--12058},
}

@article{klein_are_2013,
	title = {Are climate model simulations of clouds improving? {An} evaluation using the {ISCCP} simulator},
	volume = {118},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1002/jgrd.50141},
	number = {3},
	journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres},
	author = {Klein, Stephen A. and Zhang, Yuying and Zelinka, Mark D. and Pincus, Robert and Boyle, James and Gleckler, Peter J.},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {1329--1342},
}

@article{marvel_external_2015,
	title = {External {Influences} on {Modeled} and {Observed} {Cloud} {Trends}},
	volume = {28},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-14-00734.1},
	number = {12},
	journal = {Journal of Climate},
	author = {Marvel, K. and Zelinka, M. and Klein, S. A. and Bonfils, C. and Caldwell, P. and Doutriaux, C. and Santer, B. D. and Taylor, K. E.},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {4820--4840},
}

@article{mccoy_cloud_2019,
	title = {Cloud feedbacks in extratropical cyclones: insight from long-term satellite data and high-resolution global simulations},
	volume = {19},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.5194/acp-19-1147-2019},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
	author = {McCoy, D. T. and Field, P. R. and Elsaesser, G. S. and Bodas-Salcedo, A. and Kahn, B. H. and Zelinka, M. D. and Kodama, C. and Mauritsen, T. and Vanniere, B. and Roberts, M. and Vidale, P. L. and Saint-Martin, D. and Voldoire, A. and Haarsma, R. and Hill, A. and Shipway, B. and Wilkinson, J.},
	year = {2019},
	pages = {1147--1172},
}

@book{mccoy_mixed-phase_2018,
	title = {Mixed-{Phase} {Cloud} {Feedbacks}},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	author = {McCoy, D. T. and Hartmann, D. L. and Zelinka, M. D.},
	year = {2018},
	doi = {10.1016/b978-0-12-810549-8.00009-x},
}

@article{mccoy_mixed-phase_2015,
	title = {Mixed-phase cloud physics and {Southern} {Ocean} cloud feedback in climate models},
	volume = {120},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1002/2015jd023603},
	number = {18},
	journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres},
	author = {McCoy, D. T. and Hartmann, D. L. and Zelinka, M. D. and Ceppi, P. and Grosvenor, D. P.},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {9539--9554},
}

@article{mccoy_relationships_2016,
	title = {On the relationships among cloud cover, mixed-phase partitioning, and planetary albedo in {GCMs}},
	volume = {8},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1002/2015ms000589},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
	author = {McCoy, D. T. and Tan, I. and Hartmann, D. L. and Zelinka, M. D. and Storelvmo, T.},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {650--668},
}

@article{norris_evidence_2016,
	title = {Evidence for climate change in the satellite cloud record},
	volume = {536},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1038/nature18273},
	number = {7614},
	journal = {Nature},
	author = {Norris, J. R. and Allen, R. J. and Evan, A. T. and Zelinka, M. D. and O'Dell, C. W. and Klein, S. A.},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {72--+},
}

@article{po-chedley_sources_2018,
	title = {Sources of {Intermodel} {Spread} in the {Lapse} {Rate} and {Water} {Vapor} {Feedbacks}},
	volume = {31},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-17-0674.1},
	number = {8},
	journal = {Journal of Climate},
	author = {Po-Chedley, S. and Armour, K. C. and Bitz, C. M. and Zelinka, M. D. and Santer, B. D. and Fu, Q.},
	year = {2018},
	pages = {3187--3206},
}

@article{qu_emergent_2018,
	title = {On the {Emergent} {Constraints} of {Climate} {Sensitivity}},
	volume = {31},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-17-0482.1},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Journal of Climate},
	author = {Qu, X. and Hall, A. and DeAngelis, A. M. and Zelinka, M. D. and Klein, S. A. and Su, H. and Tian, B. J. and Zhai, C. X.},
	year = {2018},
	pages = {863--875},
}

@article{santer_celebrating_2019,
	title = {Celebrating the anniversary of three key events in climate change science},
	volume = {9},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0424-x},
	number = {3},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Santer, B. D. and Bonfils, C. J. W. and Fu, Q. and Fyfe, J. C. and Hegerl, G. C. and Mears, C. and Painter, J. F. and Po-Chedley, S. and Wentz, F. J. and Zelinka, M. D. and Zou, C. Z.},
	year = {2019},
	pages = {180--182},
}

@article{santer_human_2018,
	title = {Human influence on the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature},
	volume = {361},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1126/science.aas8806},
	number = {6399},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Santer, B. D. and Po-Chedley, S. and Zelinka, M. D. and Cvijanovic, I. and Bonfils, C. and Durack, P. J. and Fu, Q. and Kiehl, J. and Mears, C. and Painter, J. and Pallotta, G. and Solomon, S. and Wentz, F. J. and Zou, C. Z.},
	year = {2018},
	pages = {245--+},
}

@article{santer_observed_2015,
	title = {Observed multivariable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity},
	volume = {42},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1002/2014gl062366},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
	author = {Santer, B. D. and Solomon, S. and Bonfils, C. and Zelinka, M. D. and Painter, J. F. and Beltran, F. and Fyfe, J. C. and Johannesson, G. and Mears, C. and Ridley, D. A. and Vernier, J. P. and Wentz, F. J.},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {500--509},
}

@article{santer_volcanic_2016,
	title = {Volcanic effects on climate},
	volume = {6},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Santer, B. and Solomon, S. and Ridley, D. and Fyfe, J. and Beltran, F. and Bonfils, C. and Painter, J. and Zelinka, M.},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {3--+},
}

@article{santer_volcanic_2014,
	title = {Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature},
	volume = {7},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1038/ngeo2098},
	number = {3},
	journal = {Nature Geoscience},
	author = {Santer, Benjamin D. and Bonfils, Celine and Painter, Jeffrey F. and Zelinka, Mark D. and Mears, Carl and Solomon, Susan and Schmidt, Gavin A. and Fyfe, John C. and Cole, Jason N. S. and Nazarenko, Larissa and Taylor, Karl E. and Wentz, Frank J.},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {185--189},
}

@book{tan_climatic_2018,
	title = {The {Climatic} {Impact} of {Thermodynamic} {Phase} {Partitioning} in {Mixed}-{Phase} {Clouds}},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	author = {Tan, I. and Storelvmo, T. and Zelinka, M. D.},
	year = {2018},
	doi = {10.1016/b978-0-12-810549-8.00010-6},
}

@article{tan_observational_2016,
	title = {Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity},
	volume = {352},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1126/science.aad5300},
	number = {6282},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Tan, Ivy and Storelvmo, Trude and Zelinka, Mark D.},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {224--227},
}

@article{terai_constraining_2016,
	title = {Constraining the low-cloud optical depth feedback at middle and high latitudes using satellite observations},
	volume = {121},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1002/2016jd025233},
	number = {16},
	journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres},
	author = {Terai, C. R. and Klein, S. A. and Zelinka, M. D.},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {9696--9716},
}

@article{terai_mechanisms_2019,
	title = {Mechanisms {Behind} the {Extratropical} {Stratiform} {Low}-{Cloud} {Optical} {Depth} {Response} to {Temperature} in {ARM} {Site} {Observations}},
	volume = {124},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1029/2018jd029359},
	number = {4},
	journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres},
	author = {Terai, C. R. and Zhang, Y. and Klein, S. A. and Zelinka, M. D. and Chiu, J. C. and Min, Q.},
	year = {2019},
	pages = {2127--2147},
}

@article{tsushima_cloud_2017,
	title = {The {Cloud} {Feedback} {Model} {Intercomparison} {Project} ({CFMIP}) {Diagnostic} {Codes} {Catalogue} - metrics, diagnostics and methodologies to evaluate, understand and improve the representation of clouds and cloud feedbacks in climate models},
	volume = {10},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-4285-2017},
	number = {11},
	journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
	author = {Tsushima, Y. and Brient, F. and Klein, S. A. and Konsta, D. and Nam, C. C. and Qu, X. and Williams, K. D. and Sherwood, S. C. and Suzuki, K. and Zelinka, M. D.},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {4285--4305},
}

@article{yuan_positive_2016,
	title = {Positive low cloud and dust feedbacks amplify tropical {North} {Atlantic} {Multidecadal} {Oscillation}},
	volume = {43},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1002/2016gl067679},
	number = {3},
	journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
	author = {Yuan, T. L. and Oreopoulos, L. and Zelinka, M. and Yu, H. B. and Norris, J. R. and Chin, M. and Platnick, S. and Meyer, K.},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {1349--1356},
}

@article{zelinka_drivers_2018,
	title = {Drivers of the {Low}-{Cloud} {Response} to {Poleward} {Jet} {Shifts} in the {North} {Pacific} in {Observations} and {Models}},
	volume = {31},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-18-0114.1},
	number = {19},
	journal = {Journal of Climate},
	author = {Zelinka, M. D. and Grise, K. M. and Klein, S. A. and Zhou, C. and DeAngelis, A. M. and Christensen, M. W.},
	year = {2018},
	pages = {7925--7947},
}

@article{zelinka_clearing_2017,
	selected={true},
	title = {Clearing clouds of uncertainty},
	volume = {7},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	number = {10},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Zelinka, M. D. and Randall, D. A. and Webb, M. J. and Klein, S. A.},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {674--678},
}

@article{zelinka_insights_2016,
	selected={true},
	title = {Insights from a refined decomposition of cloud feedbacks},
	volume = {43},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1002/2016gl069917},
	number = {17},
	journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
	author = {Zelinka, M. D. and Zhou, C. and Klein, S. A.},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {9259--9269},
}

@article{zelinka_quantifying_2014,
	title = {Quantifying components of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in climate models},
	volume = {119},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1002/2014jd021710},
	number = {12},
	journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres},
	author = {Zelinka, Mark D. and Andrews, Timothy and Forster, Piers M. and Taylor, Karl E.},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {7599--7615},
}

@article{zelinka_response_2009,
	title = {Response of {Humidity} and {Clouds} to {Tropical} {Deep} {Convection}},
	volume = {22},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1175/2008JCLI2452.1},
	number = {9},
	journal = {Journal of Climate},
	author = {Zelinka, Mark D. and Hartmann, Dennis L.},
	year = {2009},
	pages = {2389--2404},
}

@article{zelinka_why_2010,
	selected={true},
	title = {Why is longwave cloud feedback positive?},
	volume = {115},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1029/2010JD013817},
	journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres},
	author = {Zelinka, Mark D. and Hartmann, Dennis L.},
	year = {2010},
}

@article{zelinka_observed_2011,
	title = {The observed sensitivity of high clouds to mean surface temperature anomalies in the tropics},
	volume = {116},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1029/2011JD016459},
	journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres},
	author = {Zelinka, Mark D. and Hartmann, Dennis L.},
	year = {2011},
}

@article{zelinka_climate_2012,
	title = {Climate {Feedbacks} and {Their} {Implications} for {Poleward} {Energy} {Flux} {Changes} in a {Warming} {Climate}},
	volume = {25},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-11-00096.1},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Journal of Climate},
	author = {Zelinka, Mark D. and Hartmann, Dennis L.},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {608--624},
}

@article{zelinka_computing_2012,
	selected={true},
	title = {Computing and {Partitioning} {Cloud} {Feedbacks} {Using} {Cloud} {Property} {Histograms}. {Part} {I}: {Cloud} {Radiative} {Kernels}},
	volume = {25},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-11-00248.1},
	number = {11},
	journal = {Journal of Climate},
	author = {Zelinka, Mark D. and Klein, Stephen A. and Hartmann, Dennis L.},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {3715--3735},
}

@article{zelinka_computing_2012-1,
	selected={true},
	title = {Computing and {Partitioning} {Cloud} {Feedbacks} {Using} {Cloud} {Property} {Histograms}. {Part} {II}: {Attribution} to {Changes} in {Cloud} {Amount}, {Altitude}, and {Optical} {Depth}},
	volume = {25},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00249.1},
	number = {11},
	journal = {Journal of Climate},
	author = {Zelinka, Mark D. and Klein, Stephen A. and Hartmann, Dennis L.},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {3736--3754},
}

@article{zelinka_contributions_2013,
	selected={true},
	title = {Contributions of {Different} {Cloud} {Types} to {Feedbacks} and {Rapid} {Adjustments} in {CMIP5}},
	volume = {26},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-12-00555.1},
	number = {14},
	journal = {Journal of Climate},
	author = {Zelinka, Mark D. and Klein, Stephen A. and Taylor, Karl E. and Andrews, Timothy and Webb, Mark J. and Gregory, Jonathan M. and Forster, Piers M.},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {5007--5027},
}

@article{zhang_evaluation_2019,
	title = {Evaluation of {Clouds} in {Version} 1 of the {E3SM} {Atmosphere} {Model} with {Satellite} {Simulators}},
	volume = {0},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1029/2018MS001562},
	number = {ja},
	journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
	author = {Zhang, Yuying and Xie, Shaocheng and Lin, Wuyin and Klein, Stephen A. and Zelinka, Mark and Ma, Po-Lun and Rasch, Philip J. and Qian, Yun and Tang, Qi and Ma, Hsi-Yen},
	year = {2019},
}

@article{zhou_cirrus_2014,
	title = {Cirrus feedback on interannual climate fluctuations},
	volume = {41},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1002/2014gl062095},
	number = {24},
	journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
	author = {Zhou, C. and Dessler, A. E. and Zelinka, M. D. and Yang, P. and Wang, T.},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {9166--9173},
}

@article{zhou_relationship_2015,
	title = {The relationship between interannual and long-term cloud feedbacks},
	volume = {42},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1002/2015gl066698},
	number = {23},
	journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
	author = {Zhou, C. and Zelinka, M. D. and Dessler, A. E. and Klein, S. A.},
	year = {2015},
}

@article{zhou_impact_2016,
	title = {Impact of decadal cloud variations on the {Earth}'s energy budget},
	volume = {9},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1038/ngeo2828},
	number = {12},
	journal = {Nature Geoscience},
	author = {Zhou, C. and Zelinka, M. D. and Klein, S. A.},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {871--+},
}

@article{zhou_analyzing_2017,
	title = {Analyzing the dependence of global cloud feedback on the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature change with a {Green}'s function approach},
	volume = {9},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1002/2017ms001096},
	number = {5},
	journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
	author = {Zhou, C. and Zelinka, M. D. and Klein, S. A.},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {2174--2189},
}

@article{zhou_analysis_2013,
	title = {An {Analysis} of the {Short}-{Term} {Cloud} {Feedback} {Using} {MODIS} {Data}},
	volume = {26},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00547.1},
	number = {13},
	journal = {Journal of Climate},
	author = {Zhou, Chen and Zelinka, Mark D. and Dessler, Andrew E. and Yang, Ping},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {4803--4815},
}

@article{zelinka_causes_2020,
	selected={true},
	title = {Causes of {Higher} {Climate} {Sensitivity} in {CMIP6} {Models}},
	volume = {47},
	copyright = {©2020. The Authors.},
	issn = {1944-8007},
	url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL085782},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085782},
	abstract = {Equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global surface temperature response to CO doubling, has been persistently uncertain. Recent consensus places it likely within 1.5–4.5 K. Global climate models (GCMs), which attempt to represent all relevant physical processes, provide the most direct means of estimating climate sensitivity via CO quadrupling experiments. Here we show that the closely related effective climate sensitivity has increased substantially in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), with values spanning 1.8–5.6 K across 27 GCMs and exceeding 4.5 K in 10 of them. This (statistically insignificant) increase is primarily due to stronger positive cloud feedbacks from decreasing extratropical low cloud coverage and albedo. Both of these are tied to the physical representation of clouds which in CMIP6 models lead to weaker responses of extratropical low cloud cover and water content to unforced variations in surface temperature. Establishing the plausibility of these higher sensitivity models is imperative given their implied societal ramifications.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2020-12-23},
	journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
	author = {Zelinka, Mark D. and Myers, Timothy A. and McCoy, Daniel T. and Po‐Chedley, Stephen and Caldwell, Peter M. and Ceppi, Paulo and Klein, Stephen A. and Taylor, Karl E.},
	year = {2020},
	pages = {e2019GL085782},
	file = {Full Text PDF:/Users/zelinka1/Zotero/storage/VEI6PD7A/Zelinka et al. - 2020 - Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Mode.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/zelinka1/Zotero/storage/PEIB9SE4/2019GL085782.html:text/html},
}

@article{zhou_greater_2021,
	title = {Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect},
	copyright = {2021 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2021},
	issn = {1758-6798},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00955-x},
	doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x},
	abstract = {Our planet’s energy balance is sensitive to spatial inhomogeneities in sea surface temperature and sea ice changes, but this is typically ignored in climate projections. Here, we show the energy budget during recent decades can be closed by combining changes in effective radiative forcing, linear radiative damping and this pattern effect. The pattern effect is of comparable magnitude but opposite sign to Earth’s net energy imbalance in the 2000s, indicating its importance when predicting the future climate on the basis of observations. After the pattern effect is accounted for, the best-estimate value of committed global warming at present-day forcing rises from 1.31 K (0.99–2.33 K, 5th–95th percentile) to over 2 K, and committed warming in 2100 with constant long-lived forcing increases from 1.32 K (0.94–2.03 K) to over 1.5 K, although the magnitude is sensitive to sea surface temperature dataset. Further constraints on the pattern effect are needed to reduce climate projection uncertainty.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2021-01-04},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Zhou, Chen and Zelinka, Mark D. and Dessler, Andrew E. and Wang, Minghuai},
	month = jan,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {1--5},
	file = {Full Text PDF:/Users/zelinka1/Zotero/storage/XC5SHJP9/Zhou et al. - 2021 - Greater committed warming after accounting for the.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/zelinka1/Zotero/storage/VHIQX3LF/s41558-020-00955-x.html:text/html},
}

@article{mccoy_regime-oriented_2020,
	title = {A {Regime}-{Oriented} {Approach} to {Observationally} {Constraining} {Extratropical} {Shortwave} {Cloud} {Feedbacks}},
	volume = {33},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	issn = {0894-8755, 1520-0442},
	url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/23/jcliD190987.xml},
	doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0987.1},
	abstract = {{\textless}section class="abstract"{\textgreater}{\textless}h2 class="abstractTitle text-title my-1" id="d9e2"{\textgreater}Abstract{\textless}/h2{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}The extratropical shortwave (SW) cloud feedback is primarily due to increases in extratropical liquid cloud extent and optical depth. Here, we examine the response of extratropical (35°–75°) marine cloud liquid water path (LWP) to a uniform 4-K increase in sea surface temperature (SST) in global climate models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and variants of the HadGEM3-GC3.1 GCM. Compositing is used to partition data into periods inside and out of cyclones. The response of extratropical LWP to a uniform SST increase and associated atmospheric response varies substantially among GCMs, but the sensitivity of LWP to cloud controlling factors (CCFs) is qualitatively similar. When all other predictors are held constant, increasing moisture flux drives an increase in LWP. Increasing SST, holding all other predictors fixed, leads to a decrease in LWP. The combinations of these changes lead to LWP, and by extension reflected SW, increasing with warming in both hemispheres. Observations predict an increase in reflected SW over oceans of 0.8–1.6 W m$^{\textrm{−2}}$ per kelvin SST increase (35°–75°N) and 1.2–1.9 W m$^{\textrm{−2}}$ per kelvin SST increase (35°–75°S). This increase in reflected SW is mainly due to increased moisture convergence into cyclones because of increasing available moisture. The efficiency at which converging moisture is converted into precipitation determines the amount of liquid cloud. Thus, cyclone precipitation processes are critical to constraining extratropical cloud feedbacks.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}/section{\textgreater}},
	language = {EN},
	number = {23},
	urldate = {2021-01-22},
	journal = {Journal of Climate},
	author = {McCoy, Daniel T. and Field, Paul and Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro and Elsaesser, Gregory S. and Zelinka, Mark D.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2020},
	pages = {9967--9983},
}

@article{sherwood_assessment_2020,
	selected={true},
	title = {An {Assessment} of {Earth}'s {Climate} {Sensitivity} {Using} {Multiple} {Lines} of {Evidence}},
	volume = {58},
	copyright = {©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.},
	issn = {1944-9208},
	url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019RG000678},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000678},
	abstract = {We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S. This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density function (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult-to-quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66\% range is 2.6–3.9 K for our Baseline calculation and remains within 2.3–4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5–95\% ranges are 2.3–4.7 K, bounded by 2.0–5.7 K (although such high-confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S, in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing-feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2021-02-14},
	journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
	author = {Sherwood, S. C. and Webb, M. J. and Annan, J. D. and Armour, K. C. and Forster, P. M. and Hargreaves, J. C. and Hegerl, G. and Klein, S. A. and Marvel, K. D. and Rohling, E. J. and Watanabe, M. and Andrews, T. and Braconnot, P. and Bretherton, C. S. and Foster, G. L. and Hausfather, Z. and Heydt, A. S. von der and Knutti, R. and Mauritsen, T. and Norris, J. R. and Proistosescu, C. and Rugenstein, M. and Schmidt, G. A. and Tokarska, K. B. and Zelinka, M. D.},
	year = {2020},
	keywords = {Bayesian methods, Climate, climate sensitivity, global warming},
	pages = {e2019RG000678},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/zelinka1/Zotero/storage/JN3N5VYF/Sherwood et al. - 2020 - An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/zelinka1/Zotero/storage/AYEB6GX2/2019RG000678.html:text/html},
}

@article{scott_observed_2020,
	title = {Observed {Sensitivity} of {Low}-{Cloud} {Radiative} {Effects} to {Meteorological} {Perturbations} over the {Global} {Oceans}},
	volume = {33},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	issn = {0894-8755, 1520-0442},
	url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/18/jcliD191028.xml},
	doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1028.1},
	abstract = {{\textless}section class="abstract"{\textgreater}{\textless}h2 class="abstractTitle text-title my-1" id="d495e2"{\textgreater}Abstract{\textless}/h2{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}Understanding how marine low clouds and their radiative effects respond to changing meteorological conditions is crucial to constrain low-cloud feedbacks to greenhouse warming and internal climate variability. In this study, we use observations to quantify the low-cloud radiative response to meteorological perturbations over the global oceans to shed light on physical processes governing low-cloud and planetary radiation budget variability in different climate regimes. We assess the independent effect of perturbations in sea surface temperature, estimated inversion strength, horizontal surface temperature advection, 700-hPa relative humidity, 700-hPa vertical velocity, and near-surface wind speed. Stronger inversions and stronger cold advection greatly enhance low-level cloudiness and planetary albedo in eastern ocean stratocumulus and midlatitude regimes. Warming of the sea surface drives pronounced reductions of eastern ocean stratocumulus cloud amount and optical depth, and hence reflectivity, but has a weaker and more variable impact on low clouds in the tropics and middle latitudes. By reducing entrainment drying, higher free-tropospheric relative humidity enhances low-level cloudiness. At low latitudes, where cold advection destabilizes the boundary layer, stronger winds enhance low-level cloudiness; by contrast, wind speed variations have weak influence at midlatitudes where warm advection frequently stabilizes the marine boundary layer, thus inhibiting vertical mixing. These observational constraints provide a framework for understanding and evaluating marine low-cloud feedbacks and their simulation by models.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}/section{\textgreater}},
	language = {EN},
	number = {18},
	urldate = {2021-04-21},
	journal = {Journal of Climate},
	author = {Scott, Ryan C. and Myers, Timothy A. and Norris, Joel R. and Zelinka, Mark D. and Klein, Stephen A. and Sun, Moguo and Doelling, David R.},
	month = sep,
	year = {2020},
	note = {Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Section: Journal of Climate},
	pages = {7717--7734},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/zelinka1/Zotero/storage/SVY7VA3X/jcliD191028.html:text/html},
}

@article{myers_observational_2021,
	selected={true},
	title = {Observational constraints on low cloud feedback reduce uncertainty of climate sensitivity},
	volume = {11},
	copyright = {2021 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited},
	issn = {1758-6798},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01039-0},
	doi = {10.1038/s41558-021-01039-0},
	abstract = {Marine low clouds strongly cool the planet. How this cooling effect will respond to climate change is a leading source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity, the planetary warming resulting from CO2 doubling. Here, we observationally constrain this low cloud feedback at a near-global scale. Satellite observations are used to estimate the sensitivity of low clouds to interannual meteorological perturbations. Combined with model predictions of meteorological changes under greenhouse warming, this permits quantification of spatially resolved cloud feedbacks. We predict positive feedbacks from midlatitude low clouds and eastern ocean stratocumulus, nearly unchanged trade cumulus and a near-global marine low cloud feedback of 0.19 ± 0.12 W m−2 K−1 (90\% confidence). These constraints imply a moderate climate sensitivity ({\textasciitilde}3 K). Despite improved midlatitude cloud feedback simulation by several current-generation climate models, their erroneously positive trade cumulus feedbacks produce unrealistically high climate sensitivities. Conversely, models simulating erroneously weak low cloud feedbacks produce unrealistically low climate sensitivities.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2021-07-12},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Myers, Timothy A. and Scott, Ryan C. and Zelinka, Mark D. and Klein, Stephen A. and Norris, Joel R. and Caldwell, Peter M.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2021},
	note = {Number: 6
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	pages = {501--507},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/zelinka1/Zotero/storage/VJXGTR2A/s41558-021-01039-0.html:text/html},
}

@article{mulmenstadt_underestimated_2021,
	title = {An underestimated negative cloud feedback from cloud lifetime changes},
	volume = {11},
	copyright = {2021 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited},
	issn = {1758-6798},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01038-1},
	doi = {10.1038/s41558-021-01038-1},
	abstract = {As the atmosphere warms, part of the cloud population shifts from ice and mixed-phase (‘cold’) to liquid (‘warm’) clouds. Because warm clouds are more reflective and longer-lived, this phase change reduces the solar flux absorbed by the Earth and constitutes a negative radiative feedback. This cooling feedback is weaker in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) than in the fifth phase (CMIP5), contributing to greater greenhouse warming. Although this change is often attributed to improvements in the simulated cloud phase, another model bias persists: warm clouds precipitate too readily, potentially leading to underestimated negative lifetime feedbacks. In this study we modified a climate model to better simulate warm-rain probability and found that it exhibits a cloud lifetime feedback nearly three times larger than the default model. This suggests that model errors in cloud-precipitation processes may bias cloud feedbacks by as much as the CMIP5-to-CMIP6 climate sensitivity difference. Reliable climate model projections therefore require improved cloud process realism guided by process-oriented observations and observational constraints.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2021-07-24},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Mülmenstädt, Johannes and Salzmann, Marc and Kay, Jennifer E. and Zelinka, Mark D. and Ma, Po-Lun and Nam, Christine and Kretzschmar, Jan and Hörnig, Sabine and Quaas, Johannes},
	month = jun,
	year = {2021},
	note = {Number: 6
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	pages = {508--513},
	file = {Full Text PDF:/Users/zelinka1/Zotero/storage/AIAEW2PL/Mülmenstädt et al. - 2021 - An underestimated negative cloud feedback from clo.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/zelinka1/Zotero/storage/275JJMM5/s41558-021-01038-1.html:text/html},
}

@misc{zelinka_mzelinkaassessed-cloud-fbks_2021,
	title = {mzelinka/assessed-cloud-fbks: {Aug} 16, 2021 {Release}},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	shorttitle = {mzelinka/assessed-cloud-fbks},
	url = {https://zenodo.org/record/5206838},
	abstract = {Code to compare GCM and expert-assessed cloud feedback components},
	urldate = {2021-08-16},
	publisher = {Zenodo},
	author = {Zelinka, Mark},
	month = aug,
	year = {2021},
	doi = {10.5281/zenodo.5206838},
	file = {Zenodo Snapshot:/Users/zelinka1/Zotero/storage/C4U3W2GY/5206838.html:text/html},
}

@misc{zelinka_mzelinkacmip56_forcing_feedback_ecs_2021,
	title = {mzelinka/cmip56\_forcing\_feedback\_ecs: {Aug} 16, 2021 {Release}},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	shorttitle = {mzelinka/cmip56\_forcing\_feedback\_ecs},
	url = {https://zenodo.org/record/5206851},
	abstract = {This release is same as last, but comes with a zenodo doi badge.},
	urldate = {2021-08-16},
	publisher = {Zenodo},
	author = {Zelinka, Mark},
	month = aug,
	year = {2021},
	doi = {10.5281/zenodo.5206851},
	file = {Zenodo Snapshot:/Users/zelinka1/Zotero/storage/24JKZIS4/5206851.html:text/html},
}

@misc{zelinka_mzelinkacloud-radiative-kernels_2021,
	title = {mzelinka/cloud-radiative-kernels: {Sep} 17, 2021 {Release}},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	shorttitle = {mzelinka/cloud-radiative-kernels},
	url = {https://zenodo.org/record/5514137},
	abstract = {First official release.},
	urldate = {2021-12-10},
	publisher = {Zenodo},
	author = {Zelinka, Mark},
	month = sep,
	year = {2021},
	doi = {10.5281/zenodo.5514137},
	file = {Zenodo Snapshot:/Users/zelinka1/Zotero/storage/NVXWYKBS/5514137.html:text/html},
}

@article{zelinka_evaluating_2022,
	selected={true},
	title = {Evaluating {Climate} {Models}’ {Cloud} {Feedbacks} {Against} {Expert} {Judgment}},
	volume = {127},
	copyright = {All rights reserved},
	issn = {2169-8996},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2021JD035198},
	doi = {10.1029/2021JD035198},
	abstract = {The persistent and growing spread in effective climate sensitivity (ECS) across global climate models necessitates rigorous evaluation of their cloud feedbacks. Here we evaluate several cloud feedback components simulated in 19 climate models against benchmark values determined via an expert synthesis of observational, theoretical, and high-resolution modeling studies. We find that models with smallest feedback errors relative to these benchmark values generally have moderate total cloud feedbacks (0.4–0.6 W m−2 K−1) and ECS (3–4 K). Those with largest errors generally have total cloud feedback and ECS values that are too large or too small. Models tend to achieve large positive total cloud feedbacks by having several cloud feedback components that are systematically biased high rather than by having a single anomalously large component, and vice versa. In general, better simulation of mean-state cloud properties leads to stronger but not necessarily better cloud feedbacks. The Python code base provided herein could be applied to developmental versions of models to assess cloud feedbacks and cloud errors and place them in the context of other models and of expert judgment in real-time during model development.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-03-17},
	journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
	author = {Zelinka, Mark D. and Klein, Stephen A. and Qin, Yi and Myers, Timothy A.},
	year = {2022},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2021JD035198},
	pages = {e2021JD035198},
	file = {Snapshot:/Users/zelinka1/Zotero/storage/QY2I2BNX/2021JD035198.html:text/html},
}

@book{przibram1967letters,
  bibtex_show={true},
  title={Letters on wave mechanics},
  author={Einstein, Albert and Schrödinger, Erwin and Planck, Max and Lorentz, Hendrik Antoon and Przibram, Karl},
  year={1967},
  publisher={Vision},
  preview={wave-mechanics.gif}
}