Mantzaris.jl

using Statistics

function Mantzaris(stYr = 1975,endYr = 1980,windowSize = 5)

    #load the data and add to a dictionary the number of countries in the year range
    countryYearsNum = Dict{Integer,Integer}()
    resultsFile = readdir("./dataTables/")
    yrMin = 100000
    yrMax = -1
    for rf in resultsFile
        fileTmp = open(string("./dataTables/",rf))
        linesTmp = readlines(fileTmp)         #readfile lines
        yrTmp = parse(Int,((split(rf,"."))[1]))
        countryNumTmp = length(split(linesTmp[1],",")) - 1#COLUMN NAME LIST (still the same regarding large set mapping to small set in cols) OF WHO CAN RECEIVE VOTES
        countryYearsNum[yrTmp] = countryNumTmp #NUM that receives votes
        close(fileTmp)
        if(yrTmp < yrMin)
            yrMin = yrTmp
        end
        if(yrTmp > yrMax)
            yrMax = yrTmp
        end
    end

    #sanity check input years
    if( endYr < stYr || stYr < yrMin || endYr > yrMax )
        print(string("year range improperly set, for the analysis end year must be greater than start and the smallest year is $(yrMin) and largest $(yrMax) with smallest first"))
        return
    end
    if( (stYr+windowSize) > endYr)
        print("not enough years between start and end for analysis")
        return
    end

    #THRESHOLDS
    windowConf = Dict() #the threshold for significance in each year of window
    yr = stYr
    while( (yr+windowSize) <= endYr )
        conf5perc = scoreSim(yr,yr+windowSize,countryYearsNum)#what a typical scenario of unbiased voting towards candidate set of receivers
        yr = yr + windowSize
        windowConf[string(yr-windowSize,"-",yr)] = conf5perc
    end

    #MATRIX WINDOW AVGS

    #print(windowConf)
    winDicts = windowScores(stYr,endYr,windowSize)
    #print(winDicts)

    collusionDict = countryCollusion(stYr,endYr,windowSize,windowConf,winDicts)
    #print("collusion Dict:\n")
    #print(collusionDict)
    return collusionDict
end



function countryCollusion(stYr,endYr,windowSize,windowConf,winDicts)
#FROM THE THRESHOLDS DETERMINE THE COUNTRY PAIRS OF COLLUSION

    collusionDict = Dict()
    yr = stYr
    while( (yr+windowSize) <= endYr )

	tmp = windowConf["$(yr)-$(yr + windowSize)"]
        threshold = tmp[2]
	cntryNames = winDicts["$(yr)-$(yr + windowSize)"]["countries"]
	scoremat = winDicts["$(yr)-$(yr + windowSize)"]["scoremat"]
	scorematAVG = scoremat * (1/(windowSize+1))
	
	collusionDict["1way:$(yr)-$(yr + windowSize)"] = []
        collusionDict["2way:$(yr)-$(yr + windowSize)"] = []
	for ii=1:(size(scoremat)[1])
	    for jj=1:(size(scoremat)[2])
		if(scorematAVG[ii,jj] >= threshold)
		    c1 = cntryNames[ii]
		    c2 = cntryNames[jj]
		    prev = collusionDict["1way:$(yr)-$(yr + windowSize)"]	    
		    new = append!(prev, ["$(c1)-$(c2)"])
		    collusionDict["1way:$(yr)-$(yr + windowSize)"] = new
		end
	    end
	end
        threshold1 = tmp[2]
        for ii=1:(size(scoremat)[1])
	    for jj=1:(size(scoremat)[2])
                if(jj>ii)
                    if((scorematAVG[ii,jj] >= threshold1) && (scorematAVG[jj,ii] >= threshold1))
                        c1 = cntryNames[ii]
                        c2 = cntryNames[jj]
                        prev = collusionDict["2way:$(yr)-$(yr + windowSize)"]		    
                        new = append!(prev, ["$(c1)-$(c2)"])
                        collusionDict["2way:$(yr)-$(yr + windowSize)"] = new
                    end
                end
            end
	end
	yr = yr + windowSize
    end

return collusionDict
end





#FOR EACH TIME WINDOW
function windowScores(stYr,endYr,windowSize)
#(make the output overall score matrices symmetric)
    #1-DICTIONARY FOR EACH WINDOW INTERVAL
    winDict = Dict()
    yr = stYr
    while( (yr+windowSize) <= endYr )
	winDict["$(yr)-$(yr+windowSize)"] = Dict()
	winDict["$(yr)-$(yr+windowSize)"]["countries"] = [] #this gets filled with the total set.
	winDict["$(yr)-$(yr+windowSize)"]["scoremat"] = []
	yr = yr + windowSize
    end

    #2-FILL DICTIONARY WITH ALL POSSIBLE COUNTRY PAIRS IN THOSE YEARS IT COVERS
    resultsFile = readdir("./dataTables/")
    namesDict = Dict()
    scoresDict = Dict()
    for rf in resultsFile   
	yrTmp = parse(Int,((split(rf,"."))[1]))   
	fileTmp = open(string("./dataTables/",rf))#each file pipe
	linesTmp = readlines(fileTmp)#read each file lines
	origColNames = split(linesTmp[1],r",|\n",keepempty=false) #store the COL name list of the columns
        #print(origColNames);print("\n")
	splice!(origColNames,1) #remove first entry
        #print(origColNames);print("\n")
        rowNAMES =[]
        
        for ii=2:length(linesTmp)#get the ROW's name list
            rowNAMEStmp = split(linesTmp[ii],r",|\n",keepempty=false)
            #print(rowNAMEStmp[1]);print("\n")
            append!(rowNAMES, [rowNAMEStmp[1]])
        end
        
        totalNames = sort(unique(append!(rowNAMES,origColNames)))
        #>>>>>>>>>><<<<<<<<<<
	namesDict[yrTmp] = totalNames#IMPORTANT! here is the name list of the year stored
        #>>>>>>>>><<<<<<<<<<
	nameNum = length(totalNames)    
	scoreMat = zeros(nameNum,nameNum)
        #print(totalNames);print(scoreMat);print("\n")
	for ii=2:length(linesTmp)#fill the scoremat
	    lineScores = split(linesTmp[ii],r",|\n",keepempty=false)
            votingCNTRY = lineScores[1]
            splice!(lineScores,1)
            lineScores = [parse(Int,lineScores[tt]) for tt in 1:length(lineScores)]
            for jj=1:length(lineScores)-1
                scoreTMP = lineScores[jj]
                colNAME = origColNames[jj]
                newColNamePos = findall([totalNames[tt] == colNAME for tt in 1:length(totalNames)])
                scoreMat[ii-1,newColNamePos] .= scoreTMP
            end

	end  	    	     
	scoresDict[string(yrTmp)] = scoreMat
        
	close(fileTmp)
    end
    
    yr = stYr
    while( (yr+windowSize) <= endYr )
	winInd = 0
	while(winInd <= windowSize)        
	    new = namesDict[yr + winInd]
	    prev = winDict["$(yr)-$(yr+windowSize)"]["countries"]
	    winDict["$(yr)-$(yr+windowSize)"]["countries"] = sort(unique(append!(prev,new)))
	    winInd = winInd + 1
	end
	yr = yr + windowSize
    end
   

    #3-ACCUMULATE POINTS OF EACH PARTICULAR COUNTRY TOWARDS ANOTHER DIFFERENT COUNTRY
    yr = stYr
    while( (yr+windowSize) <= endYr )
	winInd = 0
	cntryNum = length(winDict["$(yr)-$(yr+windowSize)"]["countries"])#WILL BECOME ARRAAY FOR ROW AND COL SIZE

	winDict["$(yr)-$(yr+windowSize)"]["scoremat"] = zeros(cntryNum,cntryNum)#WILL BECOME ASSYMETRIC!!!
	while(winInd <= windowSize)        

	    matPrev = winDict["$(yr)-$(yr+windowSize)"]["scoremat"]
	    matNew  = zeros(length(matPrev[:,1]),length(matPrev[1,:]))
	    namesTotal = winDict["$(yr)-$(yr+windowSize)"]["countries"]	
	    yrScoresMat = scoresDict[string(yr+winInd)]#the matrix for a PARTICULAR YEAR (might not be nxn)		
	    yrNames = namesDict[yr+winInd]        

	    for rowNum=1:length(yrScoresMat[:,1])#change the year nameInds to the total window Inds of names
		newIndsMat = []
                
		for colNum=1:length(findall(yrScoresMat[rowNum,:] .> 0))	    
		    tmpNamesMat = yrNames[findall(yrScoresMat[rowNum,:] .> 0)]	#non-zero cols
		    newIndsMat = sort(append!(findall([namesTotal[ii] == tmpNamesMat[colNum] for ii in 1:length(namesTotal)]),newIndsMat))	
		end
		rowNumNew = findall([namesTotal[ii] == yrNames[rowNum] for ii in 1:length(namesTotal)])
		matNew[rowNumNew,newIndsMat] = yrScoresMat[rowNum,findall(yrScoresMat[rowNum,:] .> 0)]	    
	    end				

	    winDict["$(yr)-$(yr+windowSize)"]["scoremat"] = matPrev + matNew

	    winInd = winInd + 1
	end
	yr = yr + windowSize
    end

    
    return winDict

end




#THRESHOLD FOR EACH TIME WINDOW; looking at each year in the range-> for each year draw a hypothetical score -> from the applicable voting paradigm -> accumulate the score (I will simulate each year independently from stYr:endYr choosing the appropriate scheme each time
function scoreSim(stYr,endYr,countryYearsNum)
    AVG_SIMULATION = []
    iterNum = 2500
    confInd5perc = max(1,floor(Int,0.05*iterNum))
    confInd10perc = max(1,floor(Int,0.1*iterNum))
    for ii = 1:iterNum
        ONE_SIMULATION = []
        for yr = stYr:endYr
            NUM = countryYearsNum[yr]#number of countries voting that year
	    if(yr >= 1975 || yr == 1963 || yr == 1962) 
                score = Allocated(yr,NUM)
            elseif( (1964<=yr<= 1966) || yr==1974 || (1967<=yr<=1970) || (1957<=yr<=1961))
                score = Sequential(yr,NUM)
            elseif(1971<=yr<=1973)
                score = Rated(yr,NUM)
            else
                score = Allocated(-1,NUM)
            end
            append!(ONE_SIMULATION,score)
        end        
        avgSim = mean(ONE_SIMULATION)
        append!(AVG_SIMULATION,[avgSim])
    end
    sortedAVG_SIMULATION = sort(AVG_SIMULATION,rev=true)
    conf5perc = sortedAVG_SIMULATION[confInd5perc]
    conf10perc = sortedAVG_SIMULATION[confInd10perc]
    return [conf10perc,conf5perc]
end                  

#here each country can receive a set of scores with consecutive points awarded
#in sequence for that year it has an equal chance of receiving each score
function Sequential(yr,NUM)
    SCORES1 = [5,3,1]
    SCORES2 = ones(Int,1,10)
    score = 0
    #so we iterate through the scores to see how many of the points we amass
    if( 1964 <= yr <= 1966)
        for ii=1:length(SCORES1)
            position = ceil.(rand(1,1)*NUM)
            if([position][1] == 1)
                score = SCORES1[ii] + score
            end                                        
        end
    elseif(yr==1974 || (1967<=yr<=1970) || (1957<=yr<=1961))
        for ii=1:length(SCORES2)
            position = ceil.(rand(1,1)*NUM)
            if([position][1] == 1)
                score = SCORES2[ii] + score
            end                                        
        end
    end
    return score
    
end



function Allocated(yr,NUM)
    SCORES1 = [3,2,1]
    SCORES2 = [5,4,3,2,1]
    SCORES3 = [12,10,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1]
    position = Int.(ceil.(rand(1,1)*NUM))
    if(yr >= 1975 && yr <= 2016)
        SCORES = SCORES3
    elseif(yr == 1962)
        SCORES = SCORES1
    elseif(yr == 1963)
        SCORES = SCORES2
    else
        SCORES = SCORES3
    end    
    if position[1] <= length(SCORES)
       score = SCORES[position]	       
    else
       score = 0
    end
    return score
end


function Rated(yr,NUM)
    SCORES1 = [5,4,3,2,1]
    if(1971<=yr<=1973)
        X1 = SCORES1[rand(1:end)]
        X2 = SCORES1[rand(1:end)]
    end
    score = X1 + X2
    return score
end