random baseball game generator.ipynb

{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "#### Import libraries"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 557,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "%matplotlib inline\n",
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "from pathlib import Path"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "# Random Baseball Game Generator"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "This notebook randomly generates baseball games based on the baserunning speed and slugging average of the players in each lineup.\n",
    "\n",
    "There are seven possible outcomes per at-bat:\n",
    "  1. Single\n",
    "  2. Double\n",
    "  3. Triple\n",
    "  4. Home run\n",
    "  5. Fly out (including sacrifice flies)\n",
    "  6. Ground out (including double plays)\n",
    "  7. Strike out\n",
    "\n",
    "These outcomes are determined using a beta distribution where `beta = 3` and `mean = player's slugging pct / 4`, and then then outcome is multiplied by 4 and rounded so that 0: out, 1: single, 2: double, 3: triple, and 4: home run. Outs are randomly divided into strikeouts, fly outs, and ground outs. 14% of singles are converted into home runs (to adjust for the distribution underpredicting HRs).\n",
    "\n",
    "Speed is defined as the probability a runner advances to third on a single, scores from second on a single, scores from first on a double, scores on a sacrifice fly, or advances to third on a ground out.\n",
    "\n",
    "Home field advantage is included by giving the home team a 2% boost to slugging pct and the away team a 2% penalty.\n",
    "\n",
    "Possible improvements:\n",
    "  1. Include other kinds of outs (baserunning errors)\n",
    "  2. Include base stealing (based on speed)\n",
    "  3. Take into account pitcher attributes\n",
    "  4. Toggle on/off the print statements to allow for simulation analysis"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 658,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def adj_prob(p):\n",
    "    # Increased probability for plays at home when bases are loaded\n",
    "    return p + p * (1 - p)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 492,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def generate_at_bat_result(slug):\n",
    "    result = round(np.random.beta(3*slug/(4-slug), 3)*4)\n",
    "    # Turn 14% of singles into home runs\n",
    "    if result == 1:\n",
    "        if np.random.binomial(1, 0.14):\n",
    "            result = 4\n",
    "    return result"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 686,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def generate_inning(current_batter, runs, team, inning, away_runs=10000):\n",
    "    outs = 0\n",
    "    bases = [None]*3\n",
    "    # Multiply slugger input by 0.98 and 1.02 for the away and home team respectively\n",
    "    if away_runs == 10000:\n",
    "        hfa = 0.98\n",
    "    else:\n",
    "        hfa = 1.02\n",
    "    while outs < 3:\n",
    "        print([team[b].name if b != None else None for b in bases])\n",
    "        result = generate_at_bat_result(team[current_batter].slug * hfa)\n",
    "        if result != 0:\n",
    "            team[current_batter].hit += 1\n",
    "        if result == 1:\n",
    "            print(f'{team[current_batter].name} hits a single')\n",
    "            if bases[2] != None:\n",
    "                print(f'{team[bases[2]].name} scores from third')\n",
    "                team[current_batter].rbi += 1\n",
    "                team[bases[2]].run += 1\n",
    "                runs += 1\n",
    "                bases[2] = None\n",
    "            if bases[1] != None:\n",
    "                if np.random.binomial(1, team[bases[1]].speed):\n",
    "                    print(f'{team[bases[1]].name} scores from second')\n",
    "                    team[current_batter].rbi += 1\n",
    "                    team[bases[1]].run += 1\n",
    "                    runs += 1\n",
    "                else:\n",
    "                    print(f'{team[bases[1]].name} advances to third')\n",
    "                    bases[2] = bases[1]\n",
    "                bases[1] = None\n",
    "            if bases[0] != None:\n",
    "                if not bases[2] != None and np.random.binomial(1, team[bases[0]].speed):\n",
    "                    print(f'{team[bases[0]].name} advances to third')\n",
    "                    bases[2] = bases[0]\n",
    "                else:\n",
    "                    print(f'{team[bases[0]].name} advances to second')\n",
    "                    bases[1] = bases[0]\n",
    "            bases[0] = current_batter\n",
    "        elif result == 2:\n",
    "            team[current_batter].double += 1\n",
    "            print(f'{team[current_batter].name} hits a double')\n",
    "            if bases[2] != None:\n",
    "                print(f'{team[bases[2]].name} scores from third')\n",
    "                team[current_batter].rbi += 1\n",
    "                team[bases[2]].run += 1\n",
    "                runs += 1\n",
    "                bases[2] = None\n",
    "            if bases[1] != None:\n",
    "                print(f'{team[bases[1]].name} scores from second')\n",
    "                team[current_batter].rbi += 1\n",
    "                team[bases[1]].run += 1\n",
    "                runs += 1\n",
    "            if bases[0] != None:\n",
    "                if np.random.binomial(1, team[bases[0]].speed):\n",
    "                    print(f'{team[bases[0]].name} scores from first')\n",
    "                    team[current_batter].rbi += 1\n",
    "                    team[bases[0]].run += 1\n",
    "                    runs += 1\n",
    "                else:\n",
    "                    print(f'{team[bases[0]].name} advances to third')\n",
    "                    bases[2] = bases[0]\n",
    "            bases[1] = current_batter\n",
    "            bases[0] = None\n",
    "        elif result == 3:\n",
    "            team[current_batter].triple += 1\n",
    "            print(f'{team[current_batter].name} hits a triple')\n",
    "            if bases[2] != None:\n",
    "                print(f'{team[bases[2]].name} scores from third')\n",
    "                team[current_batter].rbi += 1\n",
    "                team[bases[2]].run += 1\n",
    "                runs += 1\n",
    "            if bases[1] != None:\n",
    "                print(f'{team[bases[1]].name} scores from second')\n",
    "                team[current_batter].rbi += 1\n",
    "                team[bases[1]].run += 1\n",
    "                runs += 1\n",
    "            if bases[0] != None:\n",
    "                print(f'{team[bases[0]].name} scores from first')\n",
    "                team[current_batter].rbi += 1\n",
    "                team[bases[0]].run += 1\n",
    "                runs += 1\n",
    "            bases[2] = current_batter\n",
    "            bases[1] = bases[0] = None\n",
    "        elif result == 4:\n",
    "            print(f'{team[current_batter].name} hits a home run!')\n",
    "            runs += 1\n",
    "            team[current_batter].hr += 1\n",
    "            if bases[2] != None:\n",
    "                print(f'{team[bases[2]].name} scores from third')\n",
    "                team[current_batter].rbi += 1\n",
    "                team[bases[2]].run += 1\n",
    "                runs += 1\n",
    "            if bases[1] != None:\n",
    "                print(f'{team[bases[1]].name} scores from second')\n",
    "                team[current_batter].rbi += 1\n",
    "                team[bases[1]].run += 1\n",
    "                runs += 1\n",
    "            if bases[0] != None:\n",
    "                print(f'{team[bases[0]].name} scores from first')\n",
    "                team[current_batter].rbi += 1\n",
    "                team[bases[0]].run += 1\n",
    "                runs += 1\n",
    "            bases = [None]*3\n",
    "        else:\n",
    "            # 0: strikeout, 1: fly out, 2: ground out\n",
    "            out_type = np.random.choice(3, p=[.287, .341, .372])\n",
    "            if out_type == 1:\n",
    "                print(f'{team[current_batter].name} flies out')\n",
    "                outs += 1\n",
    "                # Sacrifice fly\n",
    "                if outs < 3 and bases[2] != None:\n",
    "                    if np.random.binomial(1, team[bases[2]].speed):\n",
    "                        print(f'{team[bases[2]].name} scores from third')\n",
    "                        team[current_batter].sf += 1\n",
    "                        team[current_batter].rbi += 1\n",
    "                        team[bases[2]].run += 1\n",
    "                        runs += 1\n",
    "                        bases[2] = None\n",
    "            elif out_type == 2:\n",
    "                # Special case when bases are loaded\n",
    "                if outs < 3 and bases[2] != None and bases[1] != None and bases[0] != None:\n",
    "                    if outs < 3 and np.random.binomial(1, adj_prob(team[bases[2]].speed)):\n",
    "                        print(f'{team[bases[2]].name} scores from third')\n",
    "                        runs += 1\n",
    "                        team[current_batter].rbi += 1\n",
    "                        team[bases[2]].run += 1\n",
    "                    else:\n",
    "                        print(f'{team[bases[2]].name} out at home!')\n",
    "                        outs += 1\n",
    "                    bases[2] = None\n",
    "                    if outs < 3:\n",
    "                        if np.random.binomial(1, adj_prob(team[current_batter].speed)):\n",
    "                            print(f'{team[current_batter].name} reaches first on fielder\\'s choice')\n",
    "                            temp_current_batter = current_batter\n",
    "                        else:\n",
    "                            print(f'{team[current_batter].name} grounds out')\n",
    "                            outs += 1\n",
    "                            temp_current_batter = None\n",
    "                        if outs < 3:\n",
    "                            print(f'{team[bases[1]].name} advances to third')\n",
    "                            bases[2] = bases[1]\n",
    "                            print(f'{team[bases[0]].name} advances to second')\n",
    "                            bases[1] = bases[0]\n",
    "                            bases[0] = temp_current_batter\n",
    "                else:\n",
    "                    print(f'{team[current_batter].name} grounds out')\n",
    "                    outs += 1\n",
    "                    # Runner scores from third\n",
    "                    if outs < 3 and bases[2] != None:\n",
    "                        if np.random.binomial(1, team[bases[2]].speed):\n",
    "                            print(f'{team[bases[2]].name} scores from third')\n",
    "                            team[current_batter].rbi += 1\n",
    "                            team[bases[2]].run += 1\n",
    "                            runs += 1\n",
    "                            bases[2] = None\n",
    "                    # Runner advances from second\n",
    "                    if outs < 3 and bases[1] != None and bases[2] == None:\n",
    "                        if np.random.binomial(1, team[bases[1]].speed) or bases[0] != None:\n",
    "                            print(f'{team[bases[1]].name} advances to third')\n",
    "                            bases[2] = bases[1]\n",
    "                            bases[1] = None\n",
    "                    # Double play\n",
    "                    if bases[0] != None:\n",
    "                        if outs < 2 and np.random.binomial(1, 0.322):\n",
    "                            print(f'{team[current_batter].name} hits into a double play')\n",
    "                            outs += 1\n",
    "                            bases[0] = None\n",
    "                        elif outs < 3:\n",
    "                            print(f'{team[bases[0]].name} advances to second')\n",
    "                            bases[1] = bases[0]\n",
    "                            bases[0] = None\n",
    "            else:\n",
    "                print(f'{team[current_batter].name} strikes out')\n",
    "                team[current_batter].ko += 1\n",
    "                outs += 1\n",
    "        team[current_batter].ab += 1\n",
    "        if current_batter < 8:\n",
    "            current_batter += 1\n",
    "        else:\n",
    "            current_batter = 0\n",
    "        if inning >= 9 and runs > away_runs:\n",
    "            print('\\nWALK-OFF WIN FOR THE HOME TEAM')\n",
    "            break\n",
    "    return current_batter, runs"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 646,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def generate_game(away_team, home_team, game=None):\n",
    "    assert len(away_team) == len(home_team) == 9\n",
    "    home_runs = 0\n",
    "    away_runs = 0\n",
    "    home_batter = 0\n",
    "    away_batter = 0\n",
    "    if game:\n",
    "        print(f'Game {game}\\n')\n",
    "    for i in range(9):\n",
    "        away_batter, away_runs = generate_inning(away_batter, away_runs, away_team, i + 1)\n",
    "        print(f'\\nTop of inning {i+1} is over, score is {away_runs}-{home_runs}\\n')\n",
    "        if i + 1 != 9 or home_runs <= away_runs:\n",
    "            home_batter, home_runs = generate_inning(\n",
    "                home_batter, home_runs, home_team, i + 1, away_runs)\n",
    "            print(f'\\nBottom of inning {i+1} is over, score is {away_runs}-{home_runs}\\n')\n",
    "    if home_runs == away_runs:\n",
    "        print('Score is tied, going to extra innings\\n')\n",
    "        while home_runs == away_runs:\n",
    "            i += 1\n",
    "            away_batter, away_runs = generate_inning(away_batter, away_runs, away_team, i + 1)\n",
    "            print(f'\\nTop of inning {i+1} is over, score is {away_runs}-{home_runs}\\n')\n",
    "            home_batter, home_runs = generate_inning(\n",
    "                home_batter, home_runs, home_team, i + 1, away_runs)\n",
    "            print(f'\\nBottom of inning {i+1} is over, score is {away_runs}-{home_runs}\\n')\n",
    "    print(f'GAME OVER, final score is {away_runs}-{home_runs}\\n\\n')\n",
    "    return away_runs, home_runs, i + 1"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Input player attributes"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 572,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "class Player():\n",
    "    def __init__(self, name, slug=0.435, speed=0.5):\n",
    "        self.name = name\n",
    "        self.slug = slug\n",
    "        self.speed = speed\n",
    "        self.hit = 0\n",
    "        self.ko = 0\n",
    "        self.double = 0\n",
    "        self.triple = 0\n",
    "        self.hr = 0\n",
    "        self.ab = 0\n",
    "        self.rbi = 0\n",
    "        self.run = 0\n",
    "        self.sf = 0\n",
    "    \n",
    "    def obs_ba(self):\n",
    "        return round(self.hit / self.ab, 3)\n",
    "    \n",
    "    def obs_slug(self):\n",
    "        return round(\n",
    "            ((self.hit - self.double - self.triple - self.hr) +\n",
    "            self.double * 2 + self.triple * 3 + self.hr * 4) / self.ab, 3\n",
    "        )"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 574,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "home_team = [\n",
    "    Player('F. Lindor', .415, 0.7),\n",
    "    Player('C. Hernandez', .408, 0.8),\n",
    "    Player('J. Ramirez', .607, 0.6),\n",
    "    Player('F. Reyes', .450, 0.3),\n",
    "    Player('C. Santana', .350, 0.4),\n",
    "    Player('T. Naquin', .383, 0.7),\n",
    "    Player('D. DeShields', .318, 0.7),\n",
    "    Player('D. Santana', .286, 0.7),\n",
    "    Player('R. Perez', .216, 0.2)\n",
    "]\n",
    "\n",
    "away_team = [\n",
    "    Player('L. Voit', .610),\n",
    "    Player('D. LeMahieu', .590),\n",
    "    Player('A. Hicks', .414),\n",
    "    Player('G. Sanchez', .365),\n",
    "    Player('G. Urshela', .490),\n",
    "    Player('G. Toerres', .368),\n",
    "    Player('C. Frazier', .511),\n",
    "    Player('A. Judge', .554),\n",
    "    Player('B. Gardner', .392)\n",
    "]\n",
    "\n",
    "average_team = [Player(f'Player {i+1}', 0.515-i/50) for i in range(9)]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Generate a random game"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 624,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "L. Voit flies out\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "D. LeMahieu hits a single\n",
      "['D. LeMahieu', None, None]\n",
      "A. Hicks strikes out\n",
      "['D. LeMahieu', None, None]\n",
      "G. Sanchez hits a single\n",
      "D. LeMahieu advances to second\n",
      "['G. Sanchez', 'D. LeMahieu', None]\n",
      "G. Urshela flies out\n",
      "\n",
      "Top of inning 1 is over, score is 0-0\n",
      "\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "F. Lindor strikes out\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "C. Hernandez hits a single\n",
      "['C. Hernandez', None, None]\n",
      "J. Ramirez hits a double\n",
      "C. Hernandez scores from first\n",
      "[None, 'J. Ramirez', None]\n",
      "F. Reyes grounds out\n",
      "J. Ramirez advances to third\n",
      "[None, None, 'J. Ramirez']\n",
      "C. Santana flies out\n",
      "\n",
      "Bottom of inning 1 is over, score is 0-1\n",
      "\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "G. Toerres hits a single\n",
      "['G. Toerres', None, None]\n",
      "C. Frazier hits a single\n",
      "G. Toerres advances to third\n",
      "['C. Frazier', None, 'G. Toerres']\n",
      "A. Judge grounds out\n",
      "A. Judge hits into a double play\n",
      "[None, None, 'G. Toerres']\n",
      "B. Gardner strikes out\n",
      "\n",
      "Top of inning 2 is over, score is 0-1\n",
      "\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "T. Naquin hits a single\n",
      "['T. Naquin', None, None]\n",
      "D. DeShields grounds out\n",
      "T. Naquin advances to second\n",
      "[None, 'T. Naquin', None]\n",
      "D. Santana grounds out\n",
      "T. Naquin advances to third\n",
      "[None, None, 'T. Naquin']\n",
      "R. Perez flies out\n",
      "\n",
      "Bottom of inning 2 is over, score is 0-1\n",
      "\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "L. Voit hits a double\n",
      "[None, 'L. Voit', None]\n",
      "D. LeMahieu hits a single\n",
      "L. Voit advances to third\n",
      "['D. LeMahieu', None, 'L. Voit']\n",
      "A. Hicks hits a single\n",
      "L. Voit scores from third\n",
      "D. LeMahieu advances to third\n",
      "['A. Hicks', None, 'D. LeMahieu']\n",
      "G. Sanchez hits a single\n",
      "D. LeMahieu scores from third\n",
      "A. Hicks advances to second\n",
      "['G. Sanchez', 'A. Hicks', None]\n",
      "G. Urshela strikes out\n",
      "['G. Sanchez', 'A. Hicks', None]\n",
      "G. Toerres flies out\n",
      "['G. Sanchez', 'A. Hicks', None]\n",
      "C. Frazier flies out\n",
      "\n",
      "Top of inning 3 is over, score is 2-1\n",
      "\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "F. Lindor flies out\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "C. Hernandez grounds out\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "J. Ramirez hits a single\n",
      "['J. Ramirez', None, None]\n",
      "F. Reyes strikes out\n",
      "\n",
      "Bottom of inning 3 is over, score is 2-1\n",
      "\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "A. Judge hits a single\n",
      "['A. Judge', None, None]\n",
      "B. Gardner flies out\n",
      "['A. Judge', None, None]\n",
      "L. Voit flies out\n",
      "['A. Judge', None, None]\n",
      "D. LeMahieu strikes out\n",
      "\n",
      "Top of inning 4 is over, score is 2-1\n",
      "\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "C. Santana grounds out\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "T. Naquin grounds out\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "D. DeShields flies out\n",
      "\n",
      "Bottom of inning 4 is over, score is 2-1\n",
      "\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "A. Hicks flies out\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "G. Sanchez hits a home run!\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "G. Urshela strikes out\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "G. Toerres strikes out\n",
      "\n",
      "Top of inning 5 is over, score is 3-1\n",
      "\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "D. Santana grounds out\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "R. Perez hits a home run!\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "F. Lindor hits a home run!\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "C. Hernandez flies out\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "J. Ramirez hits a double\n",
      "[None, 'J. Ramirez', None]\n",
      "F. Reyes flies out\n",
      "\n",
      "Bottom of inning 5 is over, score is 3-3\n",
      "\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "C. Frazier flies out\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "A. Judge hits a home run!\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "B. Gardner flies out\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "L. Voit grounds out\n",
      "\n",
      "Top of inning 6 is over, score is 4-3\n",
      "\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "C. Santana flies out\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "T. Naquin strikes out\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "D. DeShields flies out\n",
      "\n",
      "Bottom of inning 6 is over, score is 4-3\n",
      "\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "D. LeMahieu hits a double\n",
      "[None, 'D. LeMahieu', None]\n",
      "A. Hicks hits a single\n",
      "D. LeMahieu advances to third\n",
      "['A. Hicks', None, 'D. LeMahieu']\n",
      "G. Sanchez flies out\n",
      "['A. Hicks', None, 'D. LeMahieu']\n",
      "G. Urshela hits a single\n",
      "D. LeMahieu scores from third\n",
      "A. Hicks advances to second\n",
      "['G. Urshela', 'A. Hicks', None]\n",
      "G. Toerres flies out\n",
      "['G. Urshela', 'A. Hicks', None]\n",
      "C. Frazier flies out\n",
      "\n",
      "Top of inning 7 is over, score is 5-3\n",
      "\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "D. Santana flies out\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "R. Perez grounds out\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "F. Lindor grounds out\n",
      "\n",
      "Bottom of inning 7 is over, score is 5-3\n",
      "\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "A. Judge hits a single\n",
      "['A. Judge', None, None]\n",
      "B. Gardner strikes out\n",
      "['A. Judge', None, None]\n",
      "L. Voit hits a single\n",
      "A. Judge advances to third\n",
      "['L. Voit', None, 'A. Judge']\n",
      "D. LeMahieu hits a double\n",
      "A. Judge scores from third\n",
      "L. Voit advances to third\n",
      "[None, 'D. LeMahieu', 'L. Voit']\n",
      "A. Hicks hits a home run!\n",
      "L. Voit scores from third\n",
      "D. LeMahieu scores from second\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "G. Sanchez grounds out\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "G. Urshela hits a double\n",
      "[None, 'G. Urshela', None]\n",
      "G. Toerres flies out\n",
      "\n",
      "Top of inning 8 is over, score is 9-3\n",
      "\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "C. Hernandez grounds out\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "J. Ramirez hits a triple\n",
      "[None, None, 'J. Ramirez']\n",
      "F. Reyes flies out\n",
      "J. Ramirez scores from third\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "C. Santana grounds out\n",
      "\n",
      "Bottom of inning 8 is over, score is 9-4\n",
      "\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "C. Frazier hits a single\n",
      "['C. Frazier', None, None]\n",
      "A. Judge grounds out\n",
      "A. Judge hits into a double play\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "B. Gardner flies out\n",
      "\n",
      "Top of inning 9 is over, score is 9-4\n",
      "\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "T. Naquin strikes out\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "D. DeShields hits a home run!\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "D. Santana flies out\n",
      "[None, None, None]\n",
      "R. Perez flies out\n",
      "\n",
      "Bottom of inning 9 is over, score is 9-5\n",
      "\n",
      "GAME OVER, final score is 9-5\n",
      "\n",
      "\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "(9, 5, 9)"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 624,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "generate_game(away_team, home_team)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 603,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "F. Lindor 0.344\n",
      "C. Hernandez 0.27\n",
      "J. Ramirez 0.306\n",
      "F. Reyes 0.306\n",
      "C. Santana 0.356\n",
      "T. Naquin 0.268\n",
      "D. DeShields 0.2\n",
      "D. Santana 0.226\n",
      "R. Perez 0.154\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for player in home_team:\n",
    "    print(player.name, player.obs_ba())"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Generate 10,000 random games and get win probability for the home team"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 457,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def unique_score(row):\n",
    "    if row.home_win:\n",
    "        return f'{row.home_runs}-{row.away_runs}'\n",
    "    else:\n",
    "        return f'{row.away_runs}-{row.home_runs}'"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 661,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "del play_by_play"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 662,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "%%capture play_by_play\n",
    "games = pd.DataFrame([\n",
    "    generate_game(average_team, average_team, game=i+1) for i in range(10000)],\n",
    "    columns=['away_runs', 'home_runs', 'innings'])\n",
    "games['home_win'] = games.away_runs < games.home_runs\n",
    "games['total_runs'] = games.away_runs + games.home_runs\n",
    "games['unique_score'] = games.apply(unique_score, axis=1)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 663,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "45624441"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 663,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "Path('play_by_play.txt').write_text(play_by_play.stdout)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 664,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "9     0.9005\n",
       "10    0.0461\n",
       "11    0.0239\n",
       "12    0.0131\n",
       "13    0.0074\n",
       "14    0.0041\n",
       "15    0.0016\n",
       "16    0.0013\n",
       "17    0.0007\n",
       "18    0.0006\n",
       "19    0.0003\n",
       "20    0.0002\n",
       "23    0.0001\n",
       "21    0.0001\n",
       "Name: innings, dtype: float64"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 664,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "games.innings.value_counts() / len(games)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 665,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "0.5441"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 665,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "games.home_win.mean()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 666,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "4-3    558\n",
       "5-4    524\n",
       "3-2    488\n",
       "6-5    431\n",
       "4-2    399\n",
       "5-3    393\n",
       "6-4    323\n",
       "6-3    295\n",
       "5-2    294\n",
       "7-6    278\n",
       "Name: unique_score, dtype: int64"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 666,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "games.unique_score.value_counts().head(10)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 667,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "0.005422129213389724"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 667,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "np.mean([p.sf / p.ab for p in average_team])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  }
 ],
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