LIRC2011_c345ei1_ether.sgml

<meta author_flair_css_class="None" author_flair_text="BogleHead" controversiality="0" corpus="LIRC" created_utc="1322698272" decade="2010" distinguished="None" edited="True" gilded="0" id="c345ei1" link_id="t3_mth2o" month="12" parent_id="t1_c3457ni" retrieved_on="1427953742" score="1" short_name="market" subreddit="investing" subreddit_id="t5_2qhhq" ups="1" year="2011">
<text_id text_id="LIRC2011_c345ei1">
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I
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'll
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confess
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<pos pos="PP">
I
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'm
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<pos pos="DT">
a
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<pos pos="JJ">
novice
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<pos pos="IN">
at
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<pos pos="NNS">
valuations
</pos>
<pos pos=":">
...
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<s_type s_type="decl">
<pos pos="RB">
basically
</pos>
<pos pos="VV">
glance
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<pos pos="IN">
at
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<pos pos="NN">
P
</pos>
<pos pos="SYM">
/
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<pos pos="NN">
E
</pos>
<pos pos="RB">
periodically
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<pos pos="CC">
and
</pos>
<pos pos="VV">
follow
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<pos pos="IN">
along
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with
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<pos pos="DT">
a
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<pos pos="PDT">
few
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<pos pos="JJ">
long-looking
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<pos pos="NNS">
sages
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<pos pos="(">
(
</pos>
e.g.
<pos pos="NP">
Grantham
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<pos pos=":">
@
</pos>
<pos pos="NN">
GMO
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<pos pos=")">
)
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<pos pos="SENT">
.
</pos>
<pos pos="FW">
E.g.
</pos>
<pos pos="NP">
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.htmlandhttp://www.gmo.com/America/default.html
</pos>
<pos pos="CC">
and
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<pos pos="NP">
http://www.gmo.com/America/default.htm
</pos>
<pos pos="(">
(
</pos>
<pos pos="JJ">
no-pay
</pos>
<pos pos="NN">
reg.
</pos>
<pos pos="NN">
wall
</pos>
@
<pos pos="DT">
the
</pos>
<pos pos="JJ">
latter
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<pos pos=")">
)
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-
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edit
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:
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just
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logged
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in
</pos>
<pos pos="TO">
to
</pos>
<pos pos="VV">
check
</pos>
<pos pos=",">
,
</pos>
<pos pos="CC">
and
</pos>
<pos pos="NN">
yeah
</pos>
<pos pos=",">
,
</pos>
<pos pos="NN">
GMO
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<pos pos="(">
(
</pos>
<pos pos="IN">
for
</pos>
<pos pos="WP">
what
</pos>
<pos pos="PP">
it
</pos>
<pos pos="POS">
's
</pos>
<pos pos="NN">
worth
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<pos pos=")">
)
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<pos pos="VVZ">
thinks
</pos>
<pos pos="PP">
we
</pos>
<pos pos="MD">
can
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<pos pos="VV">
expect
</pos>
<pos pos="JJ">
about-market-average
</pos>
<pos pos="VVZ">
returns
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<pos pos="IN">
over
</pos>
<pos pos="DT">
the
</pos>
<pos pos="JJ">
next
</pos>
<pos pos="CD">
seven
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<pos pos="NNS">
years
</pos>
<pos pos="IN">
on
</pos>
<pos pos="JJ">
ex-US
</pos>
<pos pos="NNS">
stocks
</pos>
<pos pos=",">
,
</pos>
<pos pos="WDT">
which
</pos>
<pos pos="VBZ">
is
</pos>
<pos pos="RB">
particularly
</pos>
<pos pos="JJ">
not-bad
</pos>
<pos pos="VVN">
given
</pos>
<pos pos="DT">
the
</pos>
<pos pos="JJ">
likely
</pos>
<pos pos="NNS">
returns
</pos>
<pos pos="IN">
on
</pos>
<pos pos="NNS">
bonds
</pos>
<pos pos=":">
;)
</pos>
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</p>
<p p="p">
<s_type s_type="decl">
<pos pos="DT">
The
</pos>
<pos pos="NN">
thing
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<pos pos="VBZ">
is
</pos>
<pos pos=",">
,
</pos>
<pos pos="RB">
though
</pos>
<pos pos=",">
,
</pos>
<pos pos="IN">
that
</pos>
<pos pos="NN">
market-timing
</pos>
<pos pos="VBZ">
is
</pos>
<pos pos="JJ">
tricky
</pos>
<pos pos="NN">
business
</pos>
<pos pos="JJ">
regardless
</pos>
<pos pos="IN">
between
</pos>
<pos pos="NN">
now
</pos>
<pos pos="CC">
and
</pos>
<pos pos="NN">
then
</pos>
<pos pos=":">
...
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</s_type>
<s_type s_type="other">
<pos pos="PP">
I
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<pos pos="MD">
could
</pos>
<pos pos="VV">
see
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<pos pos="DT">
the
</pos>
<pos pos="NN">
logic
</pos>
<pos pos="IN">
behind
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<pos pos="DT">
a
</pos>
<pos pos="JJ">
tactical
</pos>
<pos pos="NN">
asset
</pos>
<pos pos="NN">
allocation
</pos>
<pos pos="DT">
that
</pos>
<pos pos="VVD">
shifted
</pos>
<pos pos="RB">
somewhat
</pos>
<pos pos=",">
,
</pos>
<pos pos="RB">
but
</pos>
<pos pos="PP">
it
</pos>
<pos pos="VBZ">
is
</pos>
<pos pos="JJ">
just
</pos>
<pos pos="RB">
too
</pos>
<pos pos="JJ">
easy
</pos>
<pos pos="TO">
to
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<pos pos="VB">
be
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<pos pos="NN">
out
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<pos pos="IN">
at
</pos>
<pos pos="DT">
the
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<pos pos="JJ">
wrong
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<pos pos="NN">
time
</pos>
<pos pos="CC">
and
</pos>
<pos pos="RB">
never
</pos>
<pos pos="VV">
find
</pos>
<pos pos="DT">
that
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<pos pos="``">
'
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entry
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point
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<pos pos=""">
'
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again
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<pos pos=":">
-
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<s_type s_type="imp">
<pos pos="VV">
believe
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me
</pos>
<pos pos=",">
,
</pos>
<pos pos="PP">
I
</pos>
<pos pos="VV">
know
</pos>
<pos pos="DT">
a
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<pos pos="NN">
lot
</pos>
<pos pos="IN">
of
</pos>
<pos pos="NN">
people
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<pos pos="WP">
who
</pos>
<pos pos="VBP">
are
</pos>
<pos pos="RB">
still
</pos>
<pos pos="VVG">
waiting
</pos>
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and
</pos>
<pos pos="VVG">
looking
</pos>
<pos pos=",">
,
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and
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<pos pos="PP">
they
</pos>
<pos pos="VV">
<hi_rend hi_rend="italics">
need
</hi_rend>
</pos>
<pos pos="IN">
another
</pos>
<pos pos="NN">
crash
</pos>
<pos pos="IN">
to
</pos>
<pos pos="VV">
justify
</pos>
<pos pos="VHG">
having
</pos>
<pos pos="VBN">
been
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<pos pos="IN">
out
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<pos pos="PP">
these
</pos>
<pos pos="RB">
last
</pos>
<pos pos="JJ">
few
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<pos pos="NNS">
years
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<pos pos="SYM">
:/
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</p>
<p p="p">
<s_type s_type="decl">
<pos pos="DT">
The
</pos>
<pos pos="NN">
reason
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<pos pos="PP">
I
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<pos pos="VV">
like
</pos>
<pos pos="NNS">
folks
</pos>
<pos pos="IN">
like
</pos>
<pos pos="NP">
Grantham
</pos>
<pos pos="VBZ">
is
</pos>
<pos pos="IN">
that
</pos>
<pos pos="PP">
he
</pos>
<pos pos="VBZ">
is
</pos>
<pos pos="RB">
n't
</pos>
<pos pos="VVG">
trying
</pos>
<pos pos="TO">
to
</pos>
<pos pos="VV">
predict
</pos>
<pos pos="DT">
the
</pos>
<pos pos="JJ">
next
</pos>
<pos pos="NN">
mood
</pos>
<pos pos="NN">
swing
</pos>
<pos pos=",">
,
</pos>
<pos pos="RB">
but
</pos>
<pos pos="RB">
instead
</pos>
<pos pos="VBZ">
is
</pos>
<pos pos="VVG">
looking
</pos>
<pos pos="IN">
at
</pos>
<pos pos="WP">
what
</pos>
<pos pos="PP">
we
</pos>
<pos pos="MD">
can
</pos>
<pos pos="VV">
expect
</pos>
<pos pos="IN">
over
</pos>
<pos pos="JJR">
longer
</pos>
<pos pos="NNS">
periods
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<s_type s_type="decl">
<pos pos=":">
-
</pos>
<pos pos="VV">
go
</pos>
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out
</pos>
<pos pos="NN">
ten
</pos>
<pos pos="NNS">
years
</pos>
<pos pos="CC">
and
</pos>
<pos pos="RB">
even
</pos>
<pos pos="NP">
Jack
</pos>
<pos pos="NP">
Bogle
</pos>
<pos pos="MD">
will
</pos>
<pos pos="VV">
weight
</pos>
<pos pos="IN">
in
</pos>
<pos pos="IN">
on
</pos>
<pos pos="NNS">
expectations
</pos>
<pos pos=",">
,
</pos>
<pos pos="RB">
but
</pos>
<pos pos="VVP">
ask
</pos>
those
<pos pos="NNS">
guys
</pos>
<pos pos="PP">
about
</pos>
<pos pos="JJ">
next
</pos>
<pos pos="NN">
month
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and
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<pos pos="PDT">
both
</pos>
<pos pos="MD">
will
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(
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rightfully
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<pos pos=",">
,
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<pos pos="UH">
IMHO
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<pos pos=")">
)
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<pos pos="VV">
throw
</pos>
<pos pos="IN">
up
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<pos pos="PP$">
their
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<pos pos="NNS">
hands
</pos>
<pos pos="CC">
and
</pos>
<pos pos="VV">
admit
</pos>
<pos pos="PP">
they
</pos>
<pos pos="VBP">
do
</pos>
<pos pos="RB">
n't
</pos>
<pos pos="VV">
know
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<pos pos="RB">
any
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<pos pos="RBR">
better
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than
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<pos pos="NN">
anyone
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<pos pos="RB">
else
</pos>
<pos pos="SYM">
;)
</pos>
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</p>
<p p="p">
<s_type s_type="other">
<pos pos="DT">
The
</pos>
<pos pos="JJ">
bottom
</pos>
<pos pos="NN">
line
</pos>
<pos pos=":">
:
</pos>
<pos pos="WP">
what
</pos>
<pos pos="VVZ">
happens
</pos>
<pos pos="IN">
if
</pos>
<pos pos="PP">
you
</pos>
<pos pos="VBP">
're
</pos>
<pos pos="JJ">
wrong
</pos>
<pos pos=",">
,
</pos>
<pos pos="CC">
and
</pos>
<pos pos="DT">
the
</pos>
<pos pos="NN">
market
</pos>
<hi_rend hi_rend="italics">
<pos pos="RB">
never
</pos>
<pos pos="VVZ">
drops
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<pos pos="RB">
dramatically
</pos>
<pos pos="TO">
to
</pos>
<pos pos="IN">
below
</pos>
<pos pos="JJ">
current
</pos>
<pos pos="NNS">
levels
</pos>
<pos pos="RB">
again
</pos>
</hi_rend>
<pos pos=":">
-
</pos>
</s_type>
<s_type s_type="decl">
<pos pos="PP">
I
</pos>
<pos pos="VBP">
'm
</pos>
<pos pos="RB">
not
</pos>
<pos pos="VBG">
betting
</pos>
<pos pos="IN">
on
</pos>
<pos pos="PP">
it
</pos>
<pos pos="IN">
either
</pos>
<pos pos="NN">
way
</pos>
<pos pos=":">
.
</pos>
</s_type>
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