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economic-consequences-covid.html
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economic-consequences-covid.html
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<!doctype html>
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<title>Micro-level economic consequences of the CoViD-19 crisis</title>
<meta name="description" content="Micro-level economic consequences of the CoViD-19 crisis">
<meta name="author" content="Hans-Martin v. Gaudecker">
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<div class="slides">
<section>
<h1></h1>
<h1>Micro-level economic consequences of the CoViD-19 crisis</h1>
<h3>Hans-Martin v. Gaudecker</h3>
<p>
<h4><p>Universität Bonn & IZA</p></h4><h4></h4>
</p>
</section>
<section id="background" class="level1">
<h1>Background</h1>
<ul>
<li>LISS: Online Panel in the Netherlands, running since 2007</li>
<li>Based on probability sample</li>
<li>Roughly 5,000 households / 7,500 individuals</li>
<li>Each month, respondents get 30 minutes of questionnaires
<ul>
<li>Background data on Work, Health, Income, ...</li>
<li>Questionnaires designed by researchers (~85c / minute / respondent)</li>
</ul></li>
<li>Around 85% of respondents can be linked to administrative microdata</li>
</ul>
</section>
<section id="covid-19-surveys" class="level1">
<h1>CoViD-19 surveys</h1>
<ul>
<li>See <a href="https://liss-covid-19-questionnaires-documentation.readthedocs.io/">https://liss-covid-19-questionnaires-documentation.readthedocs.io/</a></li>
<li><strong>March 20-31:</strong> Risk perceptions, behavioural reactions and preferences re social distancing policies, changes in the work and childcare situation, intentions and expectations regarding consumption/savings decisions, mental health</li>
<li><strong>April 6-28:</strong> Risk perceptions, number of personal contacts, changes in the work situation, income and macro expectations</li>
<li><strong>May</strong> Mostly labour, some health, home schooling</li>
<li><strong>June</strong> Mostly labour, lots of job search, how do parents deal with opening of daycares / primary schools?</li>
<li><strong>September</strong>: Risk perceptions, support for policies, changes in the work situation, income and macro expectations</li>
</ul>
</section>
<section id="covid-19-time-use-consumption" class="level1">
<h1>(CoViD-19) Time use & consumption</h1>
<ul>
<li><strong>November 2019</strong>: Baseline, helped redesign survey</li>
<li><strong>April 21-28:</strong> Similar to November 2019 edition, adapted to lockdown situation</li>
<li><strong>November</strong>: Similar to November 2019, adapted to current situation</li>
</ul>
</section>
<section id="hours-worked" class="level1">
<h1>Hours worked</h1>
<p><img src="work-childcare/abs-change-hours-over-time-by-work_perc_home_cat.png" alt="image" /></p>
</section>
<section id="hours-worked-from-home" class="level1">
<h1>Hours worked from home</h1>
<p><img src="work-childcare/abs-change-hours-home-over-time-by-work_perc_home_cat.png" alt="image" /></p>
</section>
<section id="hours-worked-by-sector-march" class="level1">
<h1>Hours worked by sector (March)</h1>
<p><img src="work-childcare/sector_change_ind_by_work_perc_march.png" alt="image" /></p>
</section>
<section id="hours-worked-by-sector-june" class="level1">
<h1>Hours worked by sector (June)</h1>
<p><img src="work-childcare/sector_change_ind_by_work_perc_june.png" alt="image" /></p>
</section>
<section id="hours-worked-by-sector-september" class="level1">
<h1>Hours worked by sector (September)</h1>
<p><img src="work-childcare/sector_change_ind_by_work_perc_september.png" alt="image" /></p>
</section>
<section id="gender-division-of-tasks" class="level1">
<h1>Gender division of tasks</h1>
<ul>
<li>On average, women reduce one hour extra during lockdown, effect vanishes by June</li>
<li>No addtional effect of children being present in the household on either parent!</li>
<li>If both parents work full-time before pandemic: roughly equal shares of additional childcare
<ul>
<li>Typically 37 + 32 hours than 45 + 45</li>
</ul></li>
<li>Combinations FT / PT or FT / no work: Gender care gap increases</li>
</ul>
</section>
<section id="full-time-non-working-couples" class="level1">
<h1>Full-time / Non-working couples</h1>
<p><img src="work-childcare/stacked-bar-plot-market-nonmarket-details-split-50-fulltime-olf.png" alt="image" /></p>
</section>
<section id="full-time-part-time-couples" class="level1">
<h1>Full-time / Part-time couples</h1>
<p><img src="work-childcare/stacked-bar-plot-market-nonmarket-details-split-50-fulltime-parttime.png" alt="image" /></p>
</section>
<section id="full-time-x2-couples" class="level1">
<h1>Full-time x2 couples</h1>
<p><img src="work-childcare/stacked-bar-plot-market-nonmarket-details-split-50-both-fulltime.png" alt="image" /></p>
</section>
<section id="overall-conclusions" class="level1">
<h1>Overall conclusions</h1>
<ul>
<li>Cross-country evidence: No effect of restrictions on aggregate economic activity</li>
<li>Inequality impact
<ul>
<li>mitigated by keeping lockdowns short</li>
<li>employment / income protection crucial in the short run</li>
</ul></li>
<li>Gender division: Heterogeneous
<ul>
<li>Not back to the 1950s</li>
<li>Western European model more resilient during crisis than Anglo-Saxon one</li>
<li>Some glimpses of hope by changed norms in long run (home office days also for men)</li>
</ul></li>
</ul>
</section>
</div>
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