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recycling-results.tex
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This chapter reports the results for the recycle fuel cycle
scenarios (Scenarios 14-19) described
in Section \ref{sec:recycle-methods}. The primary results considered
for these fuel cycle transitions are the uranium resources needed,
the \gls{SWU} capacity required, the separated plutonium masses,
and the mass of disposed material. This chapter does not focus
on the number of reactors or the energy supplied by
the reactors because most of the scenarios use the same
deployment scheme as Scenarios 7 or 13 (depending on
the energy demand curve of the scenario). For the two
scenarios that deploy the \gls{SFR} instead of the other
advanced reactors (Scenarios 16 and 19), the maximum number
of \glspl{SFR} deployed in each scenario is 312 and 595,
respectively.
These scenarios require far fewer reactors than the other scenarios
because the \gls{SFR} has a larger power output than the other
advanced reactors (311 MWe compared with 80 MWe for the Xe-100).
We model most of the advanced reactors (the Xe-100, VOYGR, and
\gls{SFR}) using the OpenMCyclus archetype (Section
\ref{sec:openmcyclus}). This archetype provides the dynamic
fuel depletion on a per cycle basis for this work, increasing
the accuracy of the used fuel compositions and the amount of
plutonium-based fuel that can be produced and used to fuel the
advanced reactors.
\section{Uranium resources}
We divide the uranium resources described here into two primary
components: the heavy metal mass and the natural uranium
required to produce fuel. We further divide the heavy metal
mass into two parts: the enriched uranium and the
heavy metals in plutonium-based fuel (\gls{MOX} or U/TRU fuel).
Enriched uranium is in the
\gls{HALEU}, \gls{UOX}, and UCO fuels. Heavy metals in plutonium-based
fuels include the natural uranium, plutonium, and transuranic
elements in
the \gls{MOX} and U/TRU fuels. We separate these metrics
because of the different processes and resources needed to
produce each fuel type. We also divide the natural uranium
masses into two parts: the feed uranium to produce enriched uranium
and the natural uranium required to produce
plutonium-based fuel. Dividing this metric provides more details
on the resources needed to support these fuel cycles.
\subsection{No growth scenarios}
This section presents the results of the uranium resources required
in the no growth, closed fuel cycle scenarios (Scenarios 14-16).
We divide these results into the heavy metal masses (enriched uranium
and heavy metals in plutonium-based fuel) and the natural
uranium masses (feed uranium and natural uranium to produce
plutonium-based fuels). We compare each of these material requirements
based on monthly averages, maximum values,
and cumulative masses. We also compare the enriched uranium and feed uranium
masses based on the monthly average for \gls{HALEU}.
\subsubsection{Heavy metal masses}
Figure \ref{fig:nogrowth_recycle_uranium} shows
the mass of enriched uranium required by Scenarios 14-16.
Scenario 15 requires the most enriched uranium, followed by
Scenario 14, then Scenario 16. Scenario 15 requires the most enriched
uranium because less material is available for reprocessing (no
\gls{TRISO} used fuel gets reprocessed), leading to
less separated plutonium and less plutonium-based fuel available. The
advanced reactors
in these scenarios prefer plutonium-based fuel over uranium-based fuel,
meaning that they will accept as much plutonium-based fuel that
is available.
Therefore, a larger supply of plutonium-based fuel means than less
uranium-based fuel is needed to support these reactors.
The annual average mass of enriched uranium (Figure
\ref{fig:nogrowth_recycle_AR_uranium}) in Scenarios 14 and 15 increases
in 2043 because the plutonium-based fuel stockpiled up from
reprocessed \gls{LWR} \gls{UNF} is used up and there is not as much
plutonium from the advanced reactor \gls{UNF} to produce more
plutonium-based fuel.
\begin{figure}[h!]
\centering
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{nogrowth_recycle_total_fuel.pdf}
\caption{Monthly mass sent to all reactors
between 1965-2090.}
\label{fig:nogrowth_recycle_all_uranium}
\end{subfigure}
\hfill
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{nogrowth_recycle_Uaverages.pdf}
\caption{Annual average mass sent to
advanced reactors between 2025-2090.}
\label{fig:nogrowth_recycle_AR_uranium}
\end{subfigure}
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{nogrowth_recycle_Ucumulative.pdf}
\caption{Cumulative mass sent to advanced reactors between 2025-2090.}
\label{fig:nogrowth_recycle_uranium_cumulative}
\end{subfigure}
\caption{Mass of enriched uranium required by reactors
in Scenarios 14-16.}
\label{fig:nogrowth_recycle_uranium}
\end{figure}
Scenario 16 does not require any uranium-based fuel to support the
advanced reactors. This result stems from a few key differences between
Scenario 16 and the other no growth closed fuel cycle scenarios. The
first difference is that all of the advanced
reactors in Scenario 16 can accept reprocessed fuel, while the \glspl{MMR}
in Scenarios 14 and 15 will only accept \gls{UOX}. This modeling
decision for the \gls{MMR} means that any fuel cycle that
deploys the \gls{MMR} will always require some amount of uranium-based
fuel. Therefore, the lack of \gls{MMR} deployment in Scenario 16 allows
the possibility for this scenario to not require enriched uranium if
there is enough plutonium-based fuel to fuel the advanced reactors.
The second difference is the reprocessing scheme.
In Scenario 16, the used fuel can be reprocessed an infinite number
of times while in Scenarios 14 and 15 the used uranium-based fuel can
only be reprocessed once and the plutonium-based fuel can not be
reprocessed. This difference is inherent to the type of fuel cycle
(limited vs. continuous recycle), and increases the amount of
\gls{UNF} available for reprocessing. Additionally, the reprocessing
step in Scenario 16 removes the uranium, neptunium, plutonium,
and americium from the used fuel, compared with only plutonium
being separated out in Scenarios 14 and 15. Allowing more material
to be separated out of the \gls{UNF} in Scenario 16 leads to more
separated actinide material to create the plutonium-based fuel.
Table \ref{tab:s14-16_uranium} reports the average enriched uranium mass,
average \gls{HALEU} mass, maximum enriched uranium mass, and cumulative
enriched uranium mass required in Scenarios 14-16. Scenario 14 requires
less enriched uranium than Scenario 7, despite having the same
advanced reactor deployment schedule, because of the change in the
fuel cycle. By reprocessing used fuel, the average \gls{HALEU}
mass required drops by 21.3\%. A similar decrease in cumulative
\gls{HALEU} needs is seen in Scenario 15. However, the removal of
\gls{TRISO} reprocessing results in a smaller decrease (15.1\%
decrease). By reprocessing the \gls{TRISO}-based fuels in
Scenario 14, the reactors in this scenario needs 6.35\% less
cumulative enriched uranium than the reactors in Scenario 15.
\begin{table}[h!]
\centering
\caption{Metrics for enriched uranium required to fuel reactors
in Scenarios 14-16.}
\label{tab:s14-16_uranium}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c}
\hline
Scenario & Average (MT/month) & HALEU Average (MT/month)
& Maximum (MT) & Cumulative (MT) \\
\hline
14 & 28.01 & 27.16 & 87.01 & 21,920 \\
15 & 30.05 & 29.20 & 143.8 & 23,407\\
16 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0\\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{table}
Scenarios 14, 15, and 16 require a cumulative enriched uranium
mass of 3,162 MT, 2,667 MT, and 0 MT, respectively, by 2050. These values
are smaller than the needs of the once-through fuel cycles
(Table \ref{tab:nogrowth_haleu}) and the estimated 5,350 MT in
a once-through fuel cycle from
Dixon et al. \cite{dixon_estimated_2022}. The closed fuel cycle
scenarios require less \gls{HALEU} than the once-through
fuel cycles because of the inclusion of reprocessing and use
of plutonium-based fuel in the advanced reactors.
In addition to the enriched uranium, the advanced
reactors receive heavy metals for the plutonium-based
fuels. Figure
\ref{fig:nogrowth_recycle_mox} shows that Scenario 16 requires more
plutonium-based fuel than the other scenarios. This result is consistent
with the reactors in Scenarios 16 not receiving any enriched
uranium. Scenario 14 uses the next largest mass of heavy metals for
plutonium-based fuel, followed by Scenario 15.
\begin{figure}[h!]
\centering
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{nogrowth_recycle_MOX.pdf}
\caption{Monthly masses sent to
advanced reactors between 2025-2090.}
\label{fig:nogrowth_recycle_AR_mox}
\end{subfigure}
\hfill
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{nogrowth_recycle_MOXcumulative.pdf}
\caption{Cumulative mass
sent to advanced reactors between 2025-2090.}
\label{fig:nogrowth_recycle_mox_cumulative}
\end{subfigure}
\caption{Mass of plutonium-based fuel required by reactors
in Scenarios 14-16.}
\label{fig:nogrowth_recycle_mox}
\end{figure}
As Table \ref{tab:s14-16_mox} reports, the average and cumulative
masses of plutonium-based fuel heavy metals in Scenario 16 are an
order of magnitude greater than the masses in Scenario 14-15.
This large difference
is a result of the different reprocessing schemes, as previously
described.
Scenario 16 needs a monthly average
of plutonium-based fuel heavy metal that is more than the maximum mass
needed in Scenario 14. More heavy metal for plutonium-based fuel
is sent to advanced reactors in Scenario 14 than
in Scenario 15 because the reprocessing of \gls{TRISO} fuel in
Scenario 14 increases the availability of
plutonium-based fuel. The heavy metals for plutonium fuels
in Scenarios 14 and 15 show a decrease in 2043, corresponding
to the increase in enriched uranium sent to reactors in these
scenarios. After the initial stock of plutonium-based fuel
from \gls{LWR} used fuel is used in Scenarios 14 and 15, these
scenarios use an
average of 5.26 MT/month and 1.49 MT/month of plutonium-based
fuel, respectively. These
values are both smaller than the average values reported
in Table \ref{tab:s14-16_mox}, highlighting the importance
of a stockpile of plutonium-based fuel from \gls{LWR} used
fuel in providing plutonium-based fuel for advanced reactors in these fuel
cycles.
\begin{table}[h!]
\centering
\caption{Metrics for plutonium-based fuels required to fuel reactors
in Scenarios 14-16.}
\label{tab:s14-16_mox}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c}
\hline
Scenario & Average (MT/month) & Maximum (MT) & Cumulative (MT) \\
\hline
14 & 7.351 & 53.81 & 5,727 \\
15 & 4.506 & 81.59 & 3,510 \\
16 & 72.70 & 241.9 & 56,630 \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{table}
When comparing the total cumulative mass of heavy metal (enriched
uranium and heavy metal in plutonium-based fuel) required by each scenario,
Scenario 16 needs the most material of these three scenarios. This
result stems from the different discharge burnups of the reactors. The
\gls{SFR} has a burnup of 87.51 MWd/kg HM and the Xe-100 (the reactor that
meets most of the demand in Scenarios 14 and 15) has a burnup of 168 MWd/kg U.
The Xe-100 gets more energy out the fuel per unit mass, which leads to
Scenarios 14 and 15 requiring less fuel than Scenario 16. Scenario 16 is most
similar to Scenario 2 in the amount of heavy metals required, because
the \gls{SFR} and \gls{MMR} have similar discharge burnups (87.51 MWd/kg
compared with 82.6 MWd/kg).
\subsubsection{Natural uranium}
Figure \ref{fig:nogrowth_recycle_feed} shows
the natural uranium required as feed uranium to produce enriched
uranium fuel for advanced reactors in Scenarios 14-16.
Scenario 15 requires
the most feed uranium, followed by Scenarios 14 and 16. This pattern follows
with the enriched uranium mass in each scenario, because the enriched
uranium mass dictates the amount of feed uranium needed.
Scenario 15 requires the
most feed mass because less \gls{UNF} is available for reprocessing,
leading to more
enriched uranium required. Scenario
16 does not requires any feed uranium because it does not require any
enriched uranium.
\begin{figure}[h!]
\centering
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{nogrowth_recycle_feed.pdf}
\caption{Monthly mass
to support all reactors between 1965-2090.}
\label{fig:nogrowth_recycle_all_feed}
\end{subfigure}
\hfill
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{nogrowth_recycle_feed_average.pdf}
\caption{Annual average mass
to support advanced reactors between 2025-2090.}
\label{fig:nogrowth_recycle_AR_feed}
\end{subfigure}
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{nogrowth_recycle_feed_cumulative.pdf}
\caption{Cumulative mass to support advanced reactors between 2025-2090.}
\label{fig:nogrowth_recycle_feed_cumulative}
\end{subfigure}
\caption{Mass of feed uranium required by reactors
in Scenarios 14-16.}
\label{fig:nogrowth_recycle_feed}
\end{figure}
Table \ref{tab:s14-16_feed} reports the metrics for the feed uranium
required in Scenarios 14-16. The cumulative feed uranium needed in
Scenarios 14 and 15 are both less than the cumulative feed uranium
needed in Scenario 7. The decrease in feed uranium needed demonstrates
how using a closed fuel cycle can reduce the feed uranium needs in
addition to reducing the fuel mass needs.
\begin{table}[h!]
\centering
\caption{Metrics for feed uranium required to produce
uranium-based fuels in in Scenarios 14-16.}
\label{tab:s14-16_feed}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c}
\hline
Scenario & Average (MT/month) & HALEU Average (MT/month) &
Maximum (MT) & Cumulative (MT) \\
\hline
14 & 842.9 & 836.4 & 2,628 & 656,582 \\
15 & 903.9 & 897.4 & 4,450 & 704,106\\
16 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0\\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{table}
Next, Figure \ref{fig:nogrowth_recycle_natu} shows the natural
uranium required for the plutonium-based fuels in Scenarios 14-16.
These results follow the same pattern as the heavy metal for
plutonium-based fuels in these scenarios (Figure
\ref{fig:nogrowth_recycle_mox}). However, the natural
uranium mass is less than the total heavy metal mass, because the
uranium is only a part of the total heavy metal mass in plutonium-based
fuel. Scenario 16 requires
the most natural uranium because the reactors in this scenario
only receive the U/TRU fuel. Scenario 15 requires the least
natural uranium, because this scenario results in the least
plutonium-based fuel.
\begin{figure}[h!]
\centering
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{nogrowth_recycle_natU.pdf}
\caption{Monthly mass to support
advanced reactors between 2025-2090.}
\label{fig:nogrowth_recycle_AR_natu}
\end{subfigure}
\hfill
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{nogrowth_recycle_natU_cumulative.pdf}
\caption{Cumulative mass to support advanced reactors between 2025-2090.}
\label{fig:nogrowth_recycle_natu_cumulative}
\end{subfigure}
\caption{Mass of natural uranium for plutonium-based fuel required
by reactors
in Scenarios 14-16.}
\label{fig:nogrowth_recycle_natu}
\end{figure}
Table \ref{tab:s14-16_natU} reports the metrics for the natural uranium
required for Scenarios 14-16. The metrics for Scenario 16 are one order
of magnitude greater than the metrics for Scenarios 14-15, the same as
the metrics of the plutonium-based fuel heavy metal.
The cumulative natural uranium mass
needed by Scenario 16 is more than one order of magnitude smaller than
the cumulative feed uranium masses in Scenarios 14 and 15, because of the
difference in process losses in each use of natural uranium. Using natural
uranium as fill material in plutonium-based fuel has relatively small
process losses because the material is used in its direct form. However,
using natural uranium as feed for enrichment has large material losses
(referred to as the tails material stream)
because of the low enrichment of natural uranium (0.711\%). Based on
Eq. \ref{eq:enrichment}, the process losses increase with increased
product mass demand and with increased product assay. The different
masses of natural uranium for use in plutonium-based fuel and
for enrichment suggests that fuel cycle that maximizes
the amount of plutonium-based fuel and minimizes the amount of
enriched uranium required helps to minimize natural uranium requirements.
\begin{table}[h!]
\centering
\caption{Metrics for natural uranium required to produce
plutonium-based fuels in Scenarios 14-16.}
\label{tab:s14-16_natU}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c}
\hline
Scenario & Average (MT/month) & Maximum (MT) & Cumulative (MT) \\
\hline
14 & 6.256 & 45.80 & 4,874 \\
15 & 3.835 & 69.44 & 2,987 \\
16 & 55.68 & 185.3 & 43,372 \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{table}
\subsection{1\% growth scenarios}
This section presents the results of the uranium resources required
in the 1\% growth, closed fuel cycle scenarios (Scenarios 17-19).
We divide these results into the fuel masses (enriched uranium
and heavy metals in plutonium-based fuel) and the natural
uranium masses (feed uranium and natural uranium to produce
plutonium-based fuels).
\subsubsection{Fuel masses}
The first fuel mass considered is the enriched uranium mass,
shown in Figure \ref{fig:1percent_recycle_uranium}. These results
show the same pattern as this metric for the no growth scenarios:
Scenario 18 requires the most enriched uranium and Scenario 19
does not require any enriched uranium. In Scenarios 17 and 18 the
increase in enriched uranium need occurs closer to 2040 and is a
more gradual increase than the observed increase in Scenarios 14-15.
These results stem from differences in the growth in energy
demand, and subsequent differences in reactor deployment, leading to the stockpile
of plutonium-based fuel from \gls{LWR} \gls{UNF} to be used up sooner.
The differences in energy demand and reactor deployment lead to different
proportions of the advanced reactors, specifically the artificially
inflated number of \gls{MMR} deployed in these scenarios described
in Section \ref{sec:1percent_reactors}. These differences
lead to the more gradual increase in the enriched uranium needs
because of the slow increase in the number of \glspl{MMR} deployed.
\begin{figure}[h!]
\centering
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{1percent_recycle_total_fuel.pdf}
\caption{Monthly mass sent to all reactors
between 1965-2090.}
\label{fig:1percent_recycle_all_uranium}
\end{subfigure}
\hfill
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{1percent_recycle_Uaverages.pdf}
\caption{Annual average mass sent to
advanced reactors between 2025-2090.}
\label{fig:1percent_recycle_AR_uranium}
\end{subfigure}
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{1percent_recycle_Ucumulative.pdf}
\caption{Cumulative mass sent to advanced reactors between 2025-2090.}
\label{fig:1percent_recycle_uranium_cumulative}
\end{subfigure}
\caption{Mass of enriched uranium required by reactors
in Scenarios 17-19.}
\label{fig:1percent_recycle_uranium}
\end{figure}
Table \ref{tab:s17-19_enrichedU} reports the metrics for the enriched
uranium masses for Scenarios 17-19. The cumulative enriched
uranium in Scenarios 17 and 18 are less than the cumulative
enriched uranium required by Scenario 13. However, the cumulative
mass for Scenario 18 is larger than the cumulative in Scenario
9. These results highlight how reprocessing can reduce enriched
uranium needs, but the reactors deployed and their fuel usage
is still an important factor in how much enriched uranium is
needed.
\begin{table}[h!]
\centering
\caption{Metrics of enriched uranium fuel between 2025-2090 in Scenarios
17-19.}
\label{tab:s17-19_enrichedU}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c}
\hline
Scenario & Average (MT/month) & Average HALEU (MT/month) &
Maximum (MT) & Cumulative (MT) \\
\hline
17 & 58.72 & 52.81 & 152.2 & 45,742\\
18 & 63.32 & 57.42 & 160.9 & 49,329\\
19 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0\\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{table}
Next is the mass of plutonium-based fuels sent to the advanced reactors
in Scenarios 17-19, shown in Figure \ref{fig:1percent_recycle_mox}.
Similar to the patterns of the no growth scenarios, Scenario 19
requires the most
plutonium-based fuel of the three scenarios and Scenario 17
requires more than Scenario 18. Scenarios 17 and 18 show the
initial stockpile of plutonium-based fuel from \gls{LWR} \gls{UNF} that
gets used by 2040. The plutonium-based fuel mass in Scenario 18
drops to near zero after 2060, because all of the used fuel from
the \glspl{LWR} has been processed and used to create plutonium-based
fuel,
and there are so few VOYGRs (the only advanced reactor used fuel
reprocessed in this scenario) to produce more separated plutonium
and more \gls{MOX}. The differences in the plutonium-based fuel
heavy metal masses in these three scenarios is primarily
a function of the reprocessing scheme of each scenario.
\begin{figure}[h!]
\centering
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{1percent_recycle_MOX.pdf}
\caption{Monthly mass sent to all reactors
between 1965-2090.}
\label{fig:1percent_recycle_AR_mox}
\end{subfigure}
\hfill
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{1percent_recycle_MOXcumulative.pdf}
\caption{Cumulative mass
sent to advanced reactors between 2025-2090.}
\label{fig:1percent_recycle_mox_cumulative}
\end{subfigure}
\caption{Masses of heavy metal in plutonium-based fuel
sent to advanced reactors
in Scenarios 17-19.}
\label{fig:1percent_recycle_mox}
\end{figure}
Table \ref{tab:s17-19_mox} reports the metrics for the
heavy metals in plutonium-based
fuels required in Scenarios 17-19. Scenario 19 uses the largest
heavy metal mass, followed by Scenario 17, then 18.
Scenario 19 requires more total heavy metal (in enriched
uranium and plutonium-based fuels) than Scenarios
17 and 18, as well as Scenarios 9, 10, 12, and 13. Scenario 19
uses the most similar cumulative mass of heavy metal as Scenario 8,
because the \gls{MMR} and \gls{SFR} have the most similar burnups
of the advanced reactors considered. However, Scenario 19 requires
less heavy metal than Scenario 8 because the \gls{SFR} has a higher
burnup than the \gls{MMR}. These results emphasize how the
the reactors deployed play an important role in determining how
much fuel is required for a fuel cycle.
\begin{table}[h!]
\centering
\caption{Metrics of plutonium-based fuel between 2025-2090 in Scenarios
17-19.}
\label{tab:s17-19_mox}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c}
\hline
Scenario & Average (MT/month) & Maximum (MT) & Cumulative (MT) \\
\hline
17 & 10.25 & 62.56 & 7,987\\
18 & 5.109 & 62.56 & 3,979\\
19 & 126.2 & 318.7 & 98,323\\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{table}
\subsubsection{Natural uranium}
The next two metrics are related to the natural uranium requirements of
Scenarios 17-19. The first of these two metrics is the
natural uranium needed as feed material for enrichment, shown in
Figure \ref{fig:1percent_recycle_feed}. The feed uranium masses follow with
the enriched uranium masses in these scenarios, because of
the relationship between these two metrics. Scenario 18 requires
the most feed uranium, and Scenario 19 requires no feed uranium.
There is increased demand for feed uranium with time in Scenarios 17
and 18, resulting from the increased energy demand
and the increased demand of uranium-based fuel in the scenarios.
\begin{figure}[h!]
\centering
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{1percent_recycle_feed.pdf}
\caption{Monthly mass to support all reactors
between 1965-2090.}
\label{fig:1percent_recycle_all_feed}
\end{subfigure}
\hfill
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{1percent_recycle_feed_average.pdf}
\caption{Annual average mass to support
advanced reactors between 2025-2090.}
\label{fig:1percent_recycle_AR_feed}
\end{subfigure}
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{1percent_recycle_feed_cumulative.pdf}
\caption{Cumulative mass to support advanced reactors between 2025-2090.}
\label{fig:1percent_recycle_feed_cumulative}
\end{subfigure}
\caption{Masses of feed uranium required by reactors
in Scenarios 17-19.}
\label{fig:1percent_recycle_feed}
\end{figure}
Table \ref{tab:s17-19_feed} reports the metrics for the feed uranium in
Scenarios 17-19. Scenarios 17 and 18 need more feed uranium than
Scenarios 9 and 12. Scenarios 9 and 12 primarily deploy the Xe-100,
while Scenarios 17 and 18 deploy an inflated number of \glspl{MMR},
because of the direct replacement of \glspl{MMR} in the deployment
scheme. The inflated number of \glspl{MMR} increases the
feed uranium requirements because the \glspl{MMR} only accept
\gls{HALEU} fuel in these scenarios, and the \gls{MMR} requires
more feed uranium per unit energy than the Xe-100. Scenario 19 does not
require any feed uranium because the \glspl{SFR} in this scenario
only receive plutonium-based fuel.
\begin{table}[h!]
\centering
\caption{Metrics of feed uranium to produce enriched uranium
between 2025-2090 in Scenarios 17-19.}
\label{tab:s17-19_feed}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c}
\hline
Scenario & Average (MT/month) & HALEU Average (MT/month) &
Maximum (MT) & Cumulative (MT) \\
\hline
17 & 1,774 & 1,728 & 4,750 & 1,381,600\\
18 & 1,866 & 1,911 & 5,014 & 1,489,022\\
19 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0\\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{table}
Finally, Figure \ref{fig:1percent_recycle_natU} shows the natural uranium
required to produce plutonium-based fuels in Scenarios 17-19. Scenario
19 requires the most natural uranium for plutonium-based fuels,
followed by Scenario 17, then Scenario 18. The masses of plutonium-based
fuel drives the demand for this natural uranium, therefore these
results follow the same patterns seen in Figure \ref{fig:1percent_recycle_mox}.
Scenario 19 requires the most natural uranium for plutonium-based
fuels because the advanced reactors in this scenario only receive
plutonium-based fuel, and the \gls{SFR} requires more fuel than
the Xe-100.
\begin{figure}[h!]
\centering
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{1percent_recycle_natU.pdf}
\caption{Monthly mass to support advanced reactors
between 1965-2090.}
\label{fig:1percent_recycle_AR_natu}
\end{subfigure}
\hfill
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{1percent_recycle_natU_cumulative.pdf}
\caption{Cumulative mass to support
advanced reactors between 2025-2090.}
\label{fig:1percent_recycle_natu_cumulative}
\end{subfigure}
\caption{Mass of natural uranium required by reactors in
plutonium-based fuels in Scenarios 17-19.}
\label{fig:1percent_recycle_natU}
\end{figure}
Table \ref{tab:s17-19_natU} reports the metrics for the
natural uranium for plutonium-based fuels in Scenarios 17-19.
These metric follow the same pattern observed for the
no growth scenarios (Scenarios 14-16). Despite Scenario 19
requiring the most natural uranium for plutonium-based
fuels, this total is still less than the cumulative feed uranium
masses required in Scenarios 17 and 18 by almost a factor
of two. The decreased total
natural uranium mass in Scenario 19, compared with Scenarios
17 and 18, is a result of the lack of (or minimal) material loss in
using natural uranium for plutonium-based fuel, compared with
the losses from using natural uranium as feed material for
enrichment.
\begin{table}[h!]
\centering
\caption{Metrics of natural uranium required to produce
plutonium-based fuel between 2025-2090 in Scenarios
17-19.}
\label{tab:s17-19_natU}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c}
\hline
Scenario & Average (MT/month) & Maximum (MT) & Cumulative (MT) \\
\hline
17 & 8.726 & 53.24 & 6,797\\
18 & 4.348 & 53.24 & 3,387\\
19 & 96.67 & 244.1 & 75,303\\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{table}
\section{SWU capacity}
The next category of metrics of interest is the \gls{SWU} capacity required
to produce the enriched uranium in each of the scenarios. The \gls{SWU}
capacity has important implications on the design and capacities of
enrichment facilities required to support these fuel cycles.
\subsection{No growth scenarios}
Figure \ref{fig:nogrowth_recycle_swu} shows \gls{SWU} capacity required
in Scenarios 14-16. For Scenarios 14 and 15 the required \gls{SWU}
capacity for the advanced reactors is relatively small, then increases
around 2043, corresponding with the increased need for enriched uranium
for reactors observed in Figure \ref{fig:nogrowth_recycle_uranium}. Scenario
16 does not require any \gls{SWU} capacity because the advanced reactors
in this scenario do not receive any enriched uranium.
\begin{figure}[h!]
\centering
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{nogrowth_recycle_swu.pdf}
\caption{Monthly capacity to support all reactors between 2025-2090.}
\label{fig:nogrowth_recycle_swu_all}
\end{subfigure}
\hfill
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{nogrowth_recycle_AR_swu.pdf}
\caption{Annual average capacity to support advanced reactors between 2025-2090.}
\label{fig:nogrowth_recycle_swu_AR}
\end{subfigure}
\caption{\gls{SWU} capacity required to support
reactors in Scenarios 14-16.}
\label{fig:nogrowth_recycle_swu}
\end{figure}
Table \ref{tab:s14-16_swu} reports the metrics of required \gls{SWU}
capacity in Scenarios 14-16. Scenarios 14 and 15 require smaller
average \gls{SWU} capacities than Scenarios 2-7, and require a
smaller average \gls{SWU} capacity to produce \gls{HALEU} than
Scenarios 2, 3, 4, 6, and 7. Scenario 5 requires less \gls{SWU}
capacity to produce \gls{HALEU} because this scenario
primarily deploys VOYGRs and requires less \gls{HALEU} than
any of the no growth scenarios that require \gls{HALEU}.
The differences in the
\gls{SWU} capacity needed by these scenarios is a function of
the reactors deployed and the amount of material available for
reprocessing. These parameters drive the amount of enriched
uranium needed in each scenario, which drives the needed
\gls{SWU} capacity.
\begin{table}[h!]
\centering
\caption{Metrics for \gls{SWU} capacity required to produce
enriched uranium in Scenarios 14-16.}
\label{tab:s14-16_swu}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c}
\hline
Scenario & Average (MT-SWU/month) & HALEU Average (MT-SWU/month)
& Maximum (MT-SWU) \\
\hline
14 & 971.6 & 965.9 & 3,032 \\
15 & 1,042 & 1,036 & 5,142 \\
16 & 0 & 0 & 0 \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{table}
The results of these scenarios identify recycling \gls{UNF} as a way
to reduce the \gls{SWU} capacity required in a fuel cycle. Additionally,
increasing the amount of \gls{UNF} available for reprocessing further
reduces the \gls{SWU} capacity required. The lack of needed
\gls{SWU} capacity in Scenario 16 indicates that developing this
fuel cycle would not require any new enrichment capacity to be developed
in the US. However, the US does not have
any facilities for reprocessing commercial fuel. Therefore, reprocessing
fuel does not assist in meeting initial \gls{HALEU} demand because
the US would need to develop new infrastructure to support any
of these transitions, whether it is enrichment facilities,
reprocessing facilities, or both. Advanced reactors in Scenarios 14 and 15
require enriched uranium fuel, including \gls{HALEU}. These scenarios
require a smaller \gls{HALEU} \gls{SWU} capacity than the once-through
scenarios, but the US would need to develop \gls{HALEU} enrichment
and reprocessing facilities to support these transitions.
\subsection{1\% growth scenarios}
Figure \ref{fig:1percent_recycle_swu} shows the \gls{SWU} capacity
required to enrich uranium in Scenarios 17-19. Similar to the
feed uranium masses, the mass of enriched uranium drives
the required \gls{SWU} capacity. Scenario 18 requires the most
\gls{SWU} capacity, followed by Scenario 17, and Scenario 19 does
not need any \gls{SWU} capacity to support the advanced reactors.
\begin{figure}[h!]
\centering
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{1percent_recycle_swu.pdf}
\caption{Monthly SWU capacity to support all reactors between 2025-2090.}
\label{fig:1percent_recycle_swu_all}
\end{subfigure}
\hfill
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{1percent_recycle_AR_swu.pdf}
\caption{Annual average SWU capacity to support
advanced reactors between 2025-2090.}
\label{fig:1percent_recycle_swu_AR}
\end{subfigure}
\caption{\gls{SWU} capacity required to support reactors in Scenarios 14-16.}
\label{fig:1percent_recycle_swu}
\end{figure}
Table \ref{tab:s17-19_swu} reports the metrics for the \gls{SWU} capacities
required in Scenarios 17-19. Scenarios 17 and 18 require less
\gls{SWU} capacity than Scenario 13, because the use of
reprocessing and plutonium-based fuel decreases the need for
enriched uranium. Scenarios 17 and 18 require more \gls{SWU}
capacity than Scenarios 9 and 12, because of the difference in
the advanced reactors deployed between these scenarios. These results
vary from the results of the no growth scenarios, in which the
average \gls{SWU} of the closed fuel cycles were smaller than the
average capacity in the once-through fuel cycles. This difference
between the energy demand curves is a result of the deployment
scheme artificially inflating the number of \glspl{MMR} built. This
extra deployment of \glspl{MMR} in the 1\% growth scenarios that
deploy the \gls{MMR} increases the \gls{SWU} capacity because the
\gls{MMR} requires more enriched uranium and a higher enrichment
level than the Xe-100 and VOYGR. Therefore, the deployment scheme
of the reactors affects the metrics of the transition when changing
the energy demand.
\begin{table}[h!]
\centering
\caption{Metrics for \gls{SWU} capacity required to produce
enriched uranium in Scenarios 17-19.}
\label{tab:s17-19_swu}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c}
\hline
Scenario & Average (MT-SWU/month) & HALEU Average (MT-SWU/month)
& Maximum (MT-SWU) \\
\hline
17 & 2,049 & 2,009 & 5,504 \\
18 & 2,207 & 2,168 & 5,806 \\
19 & 0 & 0 & 0 \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{table}
\section{Separated actinide mass}
The next metric of interest is the separated actinide mass sent
from the separations facility to the fuel fabrication facility.
The separated actinide masses include any actinides separated
from \gls{UNF} (i.e., uranium, neptunium, plutonium, and
americium).
This metric provides context on how much material is available for
producing plutonium-based fuels, and has implications on
separations and fabrication facility size needs. Separations facilities
are deployed starting in 2020, so these results begin in 2020 instead
of 2025 like the other results.
\subsection{No growth scenarios}
Figure \ref{fig:nogrowth_recycle_sep_pu} shows the separated plutonium
masses in Scenarios 14-16. Scenario 16 has the most separated
plutonium of the three scenarios, which is consistent with the other
results of these scenarios. Scenarios 14 and 15 have very little
separated plutonium compared with Scenario 16. The primary reason
for this large difference is the elements separated out in
each scenario. In Scenario 16, four different actinide elements
are separated out from the fission products (uranium, neptunium,
plutonium, and americium), but in Scenarios 14 and 15 only plutonium
is separated out. The inclusion of other elements to separate out
in Scenario 16 (primarily the uranium, which consists of up to
93\% of \gls{UNF}), increases the mass of material
separated out from the \gls{UNF}.
\begin{figure}[h!]
\centering
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.49\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{nogrowth_recycle_sep_pu.pdf}
\caption{Monthly mass between 2020-2090.}
\label{fig:nogrowth_recycle_sep_pu_all}
\end{subfigure}
\hfill
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.49\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{nogrowth_recycle_sep_pu_cumulative.pdf}
\caption{Cumulative mass between 2020-2090.}
\label{fig:nogrowth_recycle_sep_pu_cumulative}
\end{subfigure}
\caption{Mass of separated actinides sent from the
separations facility to fuel fabrication in Scenarios 14-16.}
\label{fig:nogrowth_recycle_sep_pu}
\end{figure}
Table \ref{tab:s14-16_sep_pu} reports the metrics of the separated
actinide masses in Scenarios 14-16. All three scenarios experience a
maximum amount of separated actinides at the same time, in
November 2031. This timing corresponds with \gls{UNF} discharged
from \glspl{LWR} in November 2025 and fuel from advanced reactors
discharged in October 2031. This consistency in the maximum
for these three scenarios emphasizes the importance of reprocessing
the \gls{UNF} from \glspl{LWR} in these metrics.
\begin{table}[h!]
\centering
\caption{Metrics of separated actinide masses of between 2020-2090 in
Scenarios 14-16.}
\label{tab:s14-16_sep_pu}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c}
\hline
Scenario & Average (MT/month) & Maximum (MT) & Cumulative (MT) \\
\hline
14 & 1.372 & 4.735 & 1,150\\
15 & 0.840 & 4.735 & 705.0\\
16 & 140.1 & 454.3 & 117,584\\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{table}
From the metrics in Table \ref{tab:s14-16_sep_pu}, the metrics for
the separated actinide masses in Scenario 16 are two orders of
magnitude greater than the metrics in Scenarios 14 and 15. The metrics
for Scenario 16 are also larger than the plutonium-based fuel metrics
for the scenario in Table \ref{tab:s14-16_mox}. The larger mass
of separated actinide material than plutonium-based fuels required by
the reactors drives the lack of enriched uranium to support these
reactors. The difference between the two material streams stems
from the reprocessing of uranium from \gls{LWR} fuel, which constitutes
about 93\% of the \gls{LWR} \gls{UNF}. Therefore, reprocessing
uranium from \gls{LWR} \gls{UNF} plays an important role in supporting
this fuel cycle. Between 2060-2090 (after all used fuel from
\glspl{LWR} is processed) the \glspl{SFR} require an
average of 90.3 MT/month of U/TRU fuel, and an average of 95.2
MT/month of separated actinides. Therefore, the \gls{SFR} could
still sustain producing enough plutonium-based
fuel from reprocessing \gls{SFR} \gls{UNF}.
Scenario 16 models the reprocessed uranium as being part of
the fresh reprocessed fuel. Therefore, it is likely that
fabricating the reprocessed fuel would not need the natural
uranium masses defined in Table \ref{tab:s14-16_natU}. If this
production method is possible, then the natural uranium needs
of the fuel cycle would drop to near-zero, further
emphasizing how a closed fuel cycle can help minimize
natural uranium needs.
In these fuel cycles, we model the Xe-100, VOYGR, and \gls{SFR}
through the OpenMCyclus archetype, instead of using the
\Cycamore \texttt{Reactor} like in the once-through scenarios.
The comparison between OpenMCyclus
and the \Cycamore \texttt{Reactor} (Section \ref{sec:benchmark})
shows that the \Cycamore \texttt{Reactor} yields larger separated
plutonium masses than OpenMCyclus. Therefore, using the \Cycamore
\texttt{Reactor} would potentially overestimate the amount of
separated actinide material, which would overestimate the
amount of plutonium-based fuel for the advanced reactors.
Therefore, by using OpenMCyclus for the reactors that
receive plutonium-based fuel in the closed fuel cycles, we can
expect that the separated actinide and plutonium-based fuel masses are
more accurate than if we used the \Cycamore \texttt{Reactor}
archetype.
\subsection{1\% growth scenarios}
Figure \ref{fig:1percent_recycle_sep_pu} shows the mass of separated
actinide material in Scenarios 17-19. Similar to the no growth
scenarios, Scenario 19 has a much greater mass of separated
actinide material than Scenarios 17 and 18. The greater mass in
Scenario 19 is a result of multiple actinide elements being
separated out from the \gls{UNF}, compared with only
plutonium separated in Scenarios 17 and 18, as well as more fuel
being reprocessed in Scenario 19.
\begin{figure}[h!]
\centering
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.49\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{1percent_recycle_sep_pu.pdf}
\caption{Mass
at each time step between 2020-2090.}
\label{fig:1percent_recycle_sep_pu_all}
\end{subfigure}
\hfill
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.49\textwidth}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{1percent_recycle_sep_pu_cumulative.pdf}
\caption{Cumulative mass
at each time step between 2020-2090.}
\label{fig:1percent_recycle_sep_pu_cumulative}
\end{subfigure}
\caption{Separated plutonium masses in Scenarios 17-19.}
\label{fig:1percent_recycle_sep_pu}
\end{figure}
Table \ref{tab:s17-19_sep_pu} reports the metrics of the separated
actinide masses on Scenarios 17-19. Scenarios 17 and 18 have the
maximum separated plutonium mass in November 2031, the same time
as the maximum in Scenarios 14 and 15. The consistency in the
maximum separated actinide mass in all four of the limited
recycle scenarios emphasizes the importance of reprocessing the
\gls{LWR} \gls{UNF} in these scenarios.
\begin{table}[h!]
\centering
\caption{Mass of separated plutonium between 2020-2090 in Scenarios
17-19.}
\label{tab:s17-19_sep_pu}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c}
\hline
Scenario & Average (MT/month) & Maximum (MT) & Cumulative (MT) \\
\hline
17 & 1.715 & 4.735 & 1,439\\
18 & 0.854 & 4.735 & 716.4\\
19 & 175.0 & 500.0 & 146,837\\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{table}