From cadf76470f3682613e144b183d8d0e2eeda1dcb2 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Ryan Nikolaidis <1208590+ryannikolaidis@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Sun, 7 Jul 2024 14:35:03 -0700 Subject: [PATCH] remove some expected files for testing --- .../s3/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf.json | 2510 ----------------- .../s3/page-with-formula.pdf.json | 376 --- .../s3/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf.json | 1938 ------------- 3 files changed, 4824 deletions(-) delete mode 100644 test_unstructured_ingest/expected-structured-output/s3/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf.json delete mode 100644 test_unstructured_ingest/expected-structured-output/s3/page-with-formula.pdf.json delete mode 100644 test_unstructured_ingest/expected-structured-output/s3/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf.json diff --git a/test_unstructured_ingest/expected-structured-output/s3/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf.json b/test_unstructured_ingest/expected-structured-output/s3/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf.json deleted file mode 100644 index 3fd47e269a..0000000000 --- a/test_unstructured_ingest/expected-structured-output/s3/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf.json +++ /dev/null @@ -1,2510 +0,0 @@ -[ - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "e5318630cd973733087506eca36a6be3", - "text": "INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "8466f1c7e05ce04838ff95211c4fff50", - "text": "WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE Inflation Peaking amid Low Growth", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "04fca18cc5aea2fdb24b55c01f4fa968", - "text": "2023 JAN", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Image", - "element_id": "e8910cbfc6833d5ca117621c22a183e5", - "text": "", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Image", - "element_id": "d897928ec5f88bb42d3aa4058c040eac", - "text": "WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 2, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "0f02ba386eb35b9043fb86b24f52ddef", - "text": "Inflation Peaking amid Low Growth", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 2, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "dd334d49b207f297d7d16d33537c8a2a", - "text": "Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 percent in 2024. The forecast for 2023 is 0.2 percentage point higher than predicted in the October 2022 World Economic Outlook (WEO) but below the historical (2000\u201319) average of 3.8 percent. The rise in central bank rates to fight inflation and Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine continue to weigh on economic activity. The rapid spread of COVID-19 in China dampened growth in 2022, but the recent reopening has paved the way for a faster-than-expected recovery. Global inflation is expected to fall from 8.8 percent in 2022 to 6.6 percent in 2023 and 4.3 percent in 2024, still above pre-pandemic (2017\u201319) levels of about 3.5 percent.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 2, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "c61d4c2389bdea541dd0524ae98bbdb2", - "text": "The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, but adverse risks have moderated since the October 2022 WEO. On the upside, a stronger boost from pent-up demand in numerous economies or a faster fall in inflation are plausible. On the downside, severe health outcomes in China could hold back the recovery, Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine could escalate, and tighter global financing conditions could worsen debt distress. Financial markets could also suddenly reprice in response to adverse inflation news, while further geopolitical fragmentation could hamper economic progress.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 2, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "6d8185901672f642fb852b8b77c2f244", - "text": "tighter monetary conditions and lower growth potentially affecting financial and debt stability, it is necessary to deploy macroprudential tools and strengthen debt restructuring frameworks. Accelerating COVID-19 vaccinations in China would safeguard the recovery, with positive cross-border spillovers. Fiscal support should be better targeted at those most affected by elevated food and energy prices, and broad-based fiscal relief measures should be withdrawn. Stronger multilateral cooperation is essential to preserve the gains from the rules-based multilateral system and to mitigate climate change by limiting emissions and raising green investment.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 2, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "b669c3a1a8ac62eede66dc0f3b3a8713", - "text": "Forces Shaping the Outlook", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 2, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "973eedf8298b7bd74c78ffd345ef5695", - "text": "The global fight against inflation, Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine, and a resurgence of COVID-19 in China weighed on global economic activity in 2022, and the first two factors will continue to do so in 2023.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 2, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "f56c5b8e5e9179665c81734bb47ec19b", - "text": "Despite these headwinds, real GDP was surprisingly strong in the third quarter of 2022 in numerous economies, including the United States, the euro area, and major emerging market and developing economies. The sources of these surprises were in many cases domestic: stronger-than-expected private consumption and investment amid tight labor markets and greater-than-anticipated fiscal support. Households spent more to satisfy pent-up demand, particularly on services, partly by drawing down their stock of savings as economies reopened. Business investment rose to meet demand. On the supply side, easing bottlenecks and declining transportation costs reduced pressures on input prices and allowed for a rebound in previously constrained sectors, such as motor vehicles. Energy markets have adjusted faster than expected to the shock from Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 2, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "2c358a4bb06de0c8a9e1209b4a763bfa", - "text": "In the fourth quarter of 2022, however, this uptick is estimated to have faded in most\u2014though not all\u2013\u2013major economies. US growth remains stronger than expected, with consumers continuing to spend from their stock of savings (the personal saving rate is at its lowest in more than 60 years, except for July 2005), unemployment near historic lows, and plentiful job opportunities. But elsewhere, high-frequency activity indicators (such as business and consumer sentiment, purchasing manager surveys, and mobility indicators) generally point to a slowdown.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 2, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "102714c79eee9e26b226b46f8289cb96", - "text": "International Monetary Fund | January 2023 1", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 2, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Header", - "element_id": "04eab9b077f4803c2a87e4cb81235a0e", - "text": "WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE, JANUARY 2023", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 3, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "d8af302f7df089e4e2068a1dccf1903f", - "text": "COVID-19 deepens China\u2019s slowdown. Economic activity in China slowed in the fourth quarter amid multiple large COVID-19 outbreaks in Beijing and other densely populated localities. Renewed lockdowns accompanied the outbreaks until the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in November and December, which paved the way for a full reopening. Real estate investment continued to contract, and developer restructuring is proceeding slowly, amid the lingering property market crisis. Developers have yet to deliver on a large backlog of presold housing, and downward pressure is building on house prices (so far limited by home price floors). The authorities have responded with additional monetary and fiscal policy easing, new vaccination targets for the elderly, and steps to support the completion of unfinished real estate projects. However, consumer and business sentiment remained subdued in late 2022. China\u2019s slowdown has reduced global trade growth and international commodity prices.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 3, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "2951e1eb514a453e5813bc6889f759f5", - "text": "Monetary policy starts to bite. Signs are apparent that monetary policy tightening is starting to cool demand and inflation, but the full impact is unlikely to be realized before 2024. Global headline inflation appears to have peaked in the third quarter of 2022 (Figure 1). Prices of fuel and nonfuel commodities have declined, lowering headline inflation, notably in the United States, the euro area, and Latin America. But underlying (core) inflation has not yet peaked in most economies and remains well above pre-pandemic levels. It has persisted amid second-round effects from earlier cost shocks and tight labor markets with robust wage growth as consumer demand has remained resilient. Medium-term inflation expectations generally remain anchored, but some gauges are up. These developments have caused central banks to raise rates faster than expected, especially in the United States and the euro area, and to signal that rates will stay elevated for longer. Core inflation is declining in some economies that have completed their tightening cycle\u2014such as Brazil. Financial markets are displaying high sensitivity to inflation news, with equity markets rising following recent releases of lower inflation data in anticipation of interest rate cuts (Box 1), despite central banks\u2019 communicating their resolve to tighten policy further. With the peak in US headline inflation and an acceleration in rate hikes by several non-US central banks, the dollar has weakened since September but remains significantly stronger than a year ago.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 3, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "ea9e70213dbb306bbfc411301593a01f", - "text": "Median country Brazil", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 3, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "a37a878930b52526b96231dcbcb9b3f4", - "text": "United States", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 3, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "cdd95d6fc1603d1c87d82ef501854019", - "text": "Euro area", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 3, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "f37bd3b81db4c6ef56f199b5d899aebd", - "text": "Winter comes to Europe. European economic growth in 2022 was more resilient than expected in the face of the large negative terms-of-trade shock from the war in Ukraine. This resilience\u2013\u2013which is", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 3, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "23cc5e8cc806e807c2d2a5070bd07b1c", - "text": "2 International Monetary Fund | January 2023", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 3, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "UncategorizedText", - "element_id": "43f5a5eb2707a8a8f8d7fd26a78f9dca", - "text": "Nov. \u00ab22", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 3, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "010f24c0d9604698a0a97e91efcf2ae6", - "text": "Nov.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 3, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Header", - "element_id": "d15294a3501442f95dd92dfae7cdf59f", - "text": "WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE, JANUARY 2023", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 4, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "cb9a40fe73a2ad2fff6f2dfc3504b674", - "text": "visible in consumption and investment data for the third quarter\u2013\u2013partly reflects government support of about 1.2 percent of European Union GDP (net budgetary cost) to households and firms hit by the energy crisis, as well as dynamism from economies reopening. Gas prices have declined by more than expected amid higher non-Russian pipeline and liquefied natural gas flows, compression of demand for gas, and a warmer-than-usual winter. However, the boost from reopening appears to be fading. High-frequency indicators for the fourth quarter suggest that the manufacturing and services sectors are contracting. Consumer confidence and business sentiment have worsened. With inflation at about 10 percent or above in several euro area countries and the United Kingdom, household budgets remain stretched. The accelerated pace of rate increases by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank is tightening financial conditions and cooling demand in the housing sector and beyond.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 4, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "ae89dcff717032e7fe67736c047811cf", - "text": "The Forecast", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 4, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "31faf5d0d42f072f67cd5c14d03d1eb1", - "text": "Growth Bottoming Out", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 4, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "7648ab0cbe2c234e76e7509b4bafa67c", - "text": "Global growth, estimated at 3.4 percent in 2022, is projected to fall to 2.9 percent in 2023 before rising to 3.1 percent in 2024 (Table 1). Compared with the October forecast, the estimate for 2022 and the forecast for 2023 are both higher by about 0.2 percentage point, reflecting positive surprises and greater-than-expected resilience in numerous economies. Negative growth in global GDP or global GDP per capita\u2014which often happens when there is a global recession\u2014is not expected. Nevertheless, global growth projected for 2023 and 2024 is below the historical (2000\u201319) annual average of 3.8 percent.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 4, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "d3f06c04ff50e84b159d45dc0eb0469e", - "text": "The forecast of low growth in 2023 reflects the rise in central bank rates to fight inflation\u2013\u2013 especially in advanced economies\u2013\u2013as well as the war in Ukraine. The decline in growth in 2023 from 2022 is driven by advanced economies; in emerging market and developing economies, growth is estimated to have bottomed out in 2022. Growth is expected to pick up in China with the full reopening in 2023. The expected pickup in 2024 in both groups of economies reflects gradual recovery from the effects of the war in Ukraine and subsiding inflation. Following the path of global demand, world trade growth is expected to decline in 2023 to 2.4 percent, despite an easing of supply bottlenecks, before rising to 3.4 percent in 2024.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 4, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "4c85c18daf7765010c95f9d239d6b773", - "text": "These forecasts are based on a number of assumptions, including on fuel and nonfuel commodity prices, which have generally been revised down since October, and on interest rates, which have been revised up. In 2023, oil prices are projected to fall by about 16 percent, while nonfuel commodity prices are expected to fall by, on average, 6.3 percent. Global interest rate assumptions are revised up, reflecting intensified actual and signaled policy tightening by major central banks since October.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 4, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "63a58ed0a369adeea609b73bde440690", - "text": "For advanced economies, growth is projected to decline sharply from 2.7 percent in 2022 to 1.2 percent in 2023 before rising to 1.4 percent in 2024, with a downward revision of 0.2 percentage point for 2024. About 90 percent of advanced economies are projected to see a decline in growth in 2023.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 4, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "cf86df4360039e44a9d36c2156253dca", - "text": "In the United States, growth is projected to fall from 2.0 percent in 2022 to 1.4 percent in 2023 and 1.0 percent in 2024. With growth rebounding in the second half of 2024, growth in 2024 will be faster than in 2023 on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter basis, as in most advanced", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 4, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "650a84a42d9c9f9a31dda76b1a9413b1", - "text": "International Monetary Fund | January 2023 3", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 4, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "f57040df3261584cac2da28eac005e0e", - "text": "WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE, JANUARY 2023", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 5, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "966cfe6522040aae1b567b217ecf2ec2", - "text": "economies. There is a 0.4 percentage point upward revision for annual growth in 2023, reflecting carryover effects from domestic demand resilience in 2022, but a 0.2 percentage point downward revision of growth in 2024 due to the steeper path of Federal Reserve rate hikes, to a peak of about 5.1 percent in 2023.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 5, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "af70a583660627245d8a985c424ed5ce", - "text": "percent in 2024. The 0.2 percentage point upward revision to the forecast for 2023 reflects the effects of faster rate hikes by the European Central Bank and eroding real incomes, offset by the carryover from the 2022 outturn, lower wholesale energy prices, and additional announcements of fiscal purchasing power support in the form of energy price controls and cash transfers.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 5, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "31289f8161557502f84829c118ef779f", - "text": "Growth in the United Kingdom is projected to be \u20130.6 percent in 2023, a 0.9 percentage point downward revision from October, reflecting tighter fiscal and monetary policies and financial conditions and still-high energy retail prices weighing on household budgets.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 5, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "7b242789f47f74e8004439ab9c9885ba", - "text": "Growth in Japan is projected to rise to 1.8 percent in 2023, with continued monetary and fiscal policy support. High corporate profits from a depreciated yen and earlier delays in implementing previous projects will support business investment. In 2024, growth is expected to decline to 0.9 percent as the effects of past stimulus dissipate.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 5, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "7e8c93b4741fa4ff1a87881dcaa89686", - "text": "For emerging market and developing economies, growth is projected to rise modestly, from 3.9 percent in 2022 to 4.0 percent in 2023 and 4.2 percent in 2024, with an upward revision of 0.3 percentage point for 2023 and a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point for 2024. About half of emerging market and developing economies have lower growth in 2023 than in 2022.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 5, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "c1e048bf64acdbfb4b3f07ae2c2bd9a0", - "text": "percent, respectively, after the deeper-than-expected slowdown in 2022 to 4.3 percent attributable to China\u2019s economy. China\u2019s real GDP slowdown in the fourth quarter of 2022 implies a 0.2 percentage point downgrade for 2022 growth to 3.0 percent\u2014the first time in more than 40 years with China\u2019s growth below the global average. Growth in China is projected to rise to 5.2 percent in 2023, reflecting rapidly improving mobility, and to fall to 4.5 percent in 2024 before settling at below 4 percent over the medium term amid declining business dynamism and slow progress on structural reforms. Growth in India is set to decline from 6.8 percent in 2022 to 6.1 percent in 2023 before picking up to 6.8 percent in 2024, with resilient domestic demand despite external headwinds. Growth in the ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand) is similarly projected to slow to 4.3 percent in 2023 and then pick up to 4.7 percent in 2024.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 5, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "9da9aade2e55fc72f03d8b5a78092503", - "text": "Growth in emerging and developing Europe is projected to have bottomed out in 2022 at 0.7 percent and, since the October forecast, has been revised up for 2023 by 0.9 percentage point to 1.5 percent. This reflects a smaller economic contraction in Russia in 2022 (estimated at \u20132.2 percent compared with a predicted \u20133.4 percent) followed by modestly positive growth in 2023. At the current oil price cap level of the Group of Seven, Russian crude oil export volumes are not expected to be significantly affected, with Russian trade continuing to be redirected from sanctioning to non-sanctioning countries. In Latin America and the Caribbean, growth is projected to decline from 3.9 percent in 2022 to 1.8 percent in 2023, with an upward revision for 2023 of 0.1 percentage point since October. The forecast revision reflects upgrades of 0.2 percentage point for Brazil and 0.5 percentage point for Mexico due to unexpected domestic demand resilience, higher-than-expected growth in", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 5, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "e2f761e5fbfa887c5c4654959178dd0e", - "text": "4 International Monetary Fund | January 2023", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 5, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "90d34f5e846e7bc2bf02fac74e7081a7", - "text": "WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE, JANUARY 2023", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 6, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "ffb99a5d75b910c8329e0ef1bafde120", - "text": "major trading partner economies, and in Brazil, greater-than-expected fiscal support. Growth in the region is projected to rise to 2.1 percent in 2024, although with a downward revision of 0.3 percentage point, reflecting tighter financial conditions, lower prices of exported commodities, and downward revisions to trading partner growth.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 6, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "d75546413a70b32318e60a4439de8e7f", - "text": "Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia is projected to decline from 5.3 percent in 2022 to 3.2 percent in 2023, with a downward revision of 0.4 percentage point since October, mainly attributable to a steeper-than-expected growth slowdown in Saudi Arabia, from 8.7 percent in 2022 (which was stronger than expected by 1.1 percentage points) to 2.6 percent in 2023, with a negative revision of 1.1 percentage points. The downgrade for 2023 reflects mainly lower oil production in line with an agreement through OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, including Russia and other non-OPEC oil exporters), while non-oil growth is expected to remain robust. In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected to remain moderate at 3.8 percent in 2023 amid prolonged fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, although with a modest upward revision since October, before picking up to 4.1 percent in 2024. The small upward revision for 2023 (0.1 percentage point) reflects Nigeria\u2019s rising growth in 2023 due to measures to address insecurity issues in the oil sector. In South Africa, by contrast, after a COVID-19 reopening rebound in 2022, projected growth more than halves in 2023, to 1.2 percent, reflecting weaker external demand, power shortages, and structural constraints.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 6, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "c4ed38259052e804c28ab9511fb83709", - "text": "Inflation Peaking", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 6, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "6fad039abd2a07c18e04427a5c0934c1", - "text": "About 84 percent of countries are expected to have lower headline (consumer price index) inflation in 2023 than in 2022. Global inflation is set to fall from 8.8 percent in 2022 (annual average) to 6.6 percent in 2023 and 4.3 percent in 2024\u2013\u2013above pre-pandemic (2017\u201319) levels of about 3.5 percent. The projected disinflation partly reflects declining international fuel and nonfuel commodity prices due to weaker global demand. It also reflects the cooling effects of monetary policy tightening on underlying (core) inflation, which globally is expected to decline from 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 (year over year) to 4.5 percent by the fourth quarter of 2023. Still, disinflation will take time: by 2024, projected annual average headline and core inflation will, respectively, still be above pre-pandemic levels in 82 percent and 86 percent of economies.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 6, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "276ca71db7194279383dbd5ed47e6401", - "text": "In advanced economies, annual average inflation is projected to decline from 7.3 percent in 2022 to 4.6 percent in 2023 and 2.6 percent in 2024\u2013\u2013above target in several cases. In emerging market and developing economies, projected annual inflation declines from 9.9 percent in 2022 to 8.1 percent in 2023 and 5.5 percent in 2024, above the 4.9 percent pre-pandemic (2017\u201319) average. In low-income developing countries, inflation is projected to moderate from 14.2 percent in 2022 to 8.6 percent in 2024\u2013\u2013still high, but close to the pre-pandemic average.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 6, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "dad6fdc16c791d4a298b86a74a7787cb", - "text": "The balance of risks to the global outlook remains tilted to the downside, with scope for lower growth and higher inflation, but adverse risks have moderated since the October 2022 World Economic Outlook.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 6, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "4a9791d1daa8c2de8ae6fe9473b0806c", - "text": "International Monetary Fund | January 2023. 5", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 6, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "5ed317e88b9e032f0a07e1a59492920c", - "text": "WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE, JANUARY 2023", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 7, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "7b55f9cf2ab15edd5f5ddda66cd012d1", - "text": "Table 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections (Percent change, unless noted otherwise)", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 7, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Table", - "element_id": "4eb34e94205ace0b2308f955a58a3f0a", - "text": "Year over Year Difference from October 2022 Q4 over Q4 2/ 2021 Estimate 2022 Projections 2023 2024 WEO Projections 1/ 2023 2024 Estimate 2022 Projections 2023 2024 6.2 3.4 2.9 3.1 0.2 \u20130.1 1.9 3.2 3.0 Advanced Economies United States Euro Area Germany France Italy Spain Japan United Kingdom Canada Other Advanced Economies 3/ 5.4 5.9 5.3 2.6 6.8 6.7 5.5 2.1 7.6 5.0 5.3 2.7 2.0 3.5 1.9 2.6 3.9 5.2 1.4 4.1 3.5 2.8 1.2 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.8 \u20130.6 1.5 2.0 1.4 1.0 1.6 1.4 1.6 0.9 2.4 0.9 0.9 1.5 2.4 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.8 \u20130.1 0.2 \u20130.9 0.0 \u20130.3 \u20130.2 \u20130.2 \u20130.2 \u20130.1 0.0 \u20130.4 \u20130.2 \u20130.4 0.3 \u20130.1 \u20130.2 1.3 0.7 1.9 1.4 0.5 2.1 2.1 1.7 0.4 2.3 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.9 0.1 1.3 1.0 \u20130.5 1.2 2.1 1.6 1.3 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.0 2.8 1.0 1.8 1.9 2.2 Emerging Market and Developing Economies Emerging and Developing Asia China India 4/ Emerging and Developing Europe Russia Latin America and the Caribbean Brazil Mexico Middle East and Central Asia Saudi Arabia Sub-Saharan Africa Nigeria South Africa 6.7 7.4 8.4 8.7 6.9 4.7 7.0 5.0 4.7 4.5 3.2 4.7 3.6 4.9 3.9 4.3 3.0 6.8 0.7 \u20132.2 3.9 3.1 3.1 5.3 8.7 3.8 3.0 2.6 4.0 5.3 5.2 6.1 1.5 0.3 1.8 1.2 1.7 3.2 2.6 3.8 3.2 1.2 4.2 5.2 4.5 6.8 2.6 2.1 2.1 1.5 1.6 3.7 3.4 4.1 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.9 2.6 0.1 0.2 0.5 \u20130.4 \u20131.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 \u20130.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 \u20130.3 \u20130.4 \u20130.2 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 3.4 2.9 4.3 \u20132.0 \u20134.1 2.6 2.8 3.7 . . . 4.6 . . . 2.6 3.0 5.0 6.2 5.9 7.0 3.5 1.0 1.9 0.8 1.1 . . . 2.7 . . . 3.1 0.5 4.1 4.9 4.1 7.1 2.8 2.0 1.9 2.2 1.9 . . . 3.5 . . . 2.9 1.8 Memorandum World Growth Based on Market Exchange Rates European Union ASEAN-5 5/ Middle East and North Africa Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies Low-Income Developing Countries 6.0 5.5 3.8 4.1 7.0 4.1 3.1 3.7 5.2 5.4 3.8 4.9 2.4 0.7 4.3 3.2 4.0 4.9 2.5 1.8 4.7 3.5 4.1 5.6 0.3 0.0 \u20130.2 \u20130.4 0.4 0.0 \u20130.1 \u20130.3 \u20130.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 1.7 1.8 3.7 . . . 2.5 . . . 2.5 1.2 5.7 . . . 5.0 . . . 2.5 2.0 4.0 . . . 4.1 . . . 10.4 9.4 12.1 5.4 6.6 3.4 2.4 2.3 2.6 3.4 2.7 4.6 \u20130.1 0.0 \u20130.3 \u20130.3 \u20130.4 0.0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65.8 26.4 39.8 7.0 \u201316.2 \u20136.3 \u20137.1 \u20130.4 \u20133.3 \u20130.1 \u20130.9 0.3 11.2 \u20132.0 \u20139.8 1.4 \u20135.9 \u20130.2", - 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"eng" - ], - "page_number": 7, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "UncategorizedText", - "element_id": "54dc7fe009c437d116108cec181e3792", - "text": "8.8 7.3 9.9", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 7, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "UncategorizedText", - "element_id": "348fa41c29526b8d4933fa0492af810e", - 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Economies are listed on the basis of economic size. The aggregated quarterly data are seasonally adjusted. WEO = World Economic Outlook. 1/ Difference based on rounded figures for the current and October 2022 WEO forecasts. Countries whose forecasts have been updated relative to October 2022 WEO forecasts account for approximately 90 percent of world GDP measured at purchasing-power-parity weights. 2/ For World Output (Emerging Market and Developing Economies), the quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 90 percent (80 percent) of annual world (emerging market and developing economies') output at purchasing-power-parity weights. 3/ Excludes the Group of Seven (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and euro area countries. 4/ For India, data and projections are presented on a fiscal year basis, with FY 2022/23 (starting in April 2022) shown in the 2022 column. India's growth projections are 5.4 percent in 2023 and 6.8 percent in 2024 based on calendar year. 5/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand. 6/ Simple average of growth rates for export and import volumes (goods and services). 7/ Simple average of prices of UK Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil. The average assumed price of oil in US dollars a barrel, based on futures markets (as of November 29, 2022), is $81.13 in 2023 and $75.36 in 2024. 8/ Excludes Venezuela. 9/ The inflation rate for the euro area is 5.7% in 2023 and 3.3% in 2024, that for Japan is 2.8% in 2023 and 2.0% in 2024, and that for the United States is 4.0% in 2023 and 2.2% in 2024.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 7, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "fcdbec90e78c273dd191e6938b63b3aa", - "text": "Upside risks\u2014Plausible upside risks include more favorable surprises to domestic spending\u2014as in the third quarter of 2022\u2014which, however, would increase inflation further. At the same time, there is room for an upside scenario with lower-than-expected inflation and less monetary tightening:", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 7, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "05b94a59813751cc052b233294eea3bf", - "text": "support and, in many cases, still-tight labor markets and solid wage growth, pent-up demand remains an upside risk to the growth outlook. In some advanced economies, recent data show that households are still on net adding to their stock of excess savings (as in some euro area countries and the United Kingdom) or have ample savings left (as in the United States). This leaves scope for a further boost to consumption\u2014particularly of services, including tourism.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 7, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "a92c9c37dd45ab95af9ee011a431bbfd", - "text": "6 International Monetary Fund | January 2023", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 7, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "UncategorizedText", - "element_id": "36b409ff8f7f08da8322fb6945b054ef", - "text": "3.5 2.3 4.5", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 7, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Header", - "element_id": "9d90e4fc536bda02ef1167255c84eed7", - "text": "WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE, JANUARY 2023", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 8, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "b20c66b46dd6311d2a324c0156315353", - "text": "However, the boost to demand could stoke core inflation, leading to even tighter monetary policies and a stronger-than-expected slowdown later on. Pent-up demand could also fuel a stronger rebound in China.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 8, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "71a1e86ca0ab0fa7c75ad3568285eda6", - "text": "Faster disinflation: An easing in labor market pressures in some advanced economies due to falling vacancies could cool wage inflation without necessarily increasing unemployment. A sharp fall in the prices of goods, as consumers shift back to services, could further push down inflation. Such developments could imply a \u201csofter\u201d landing with less monetary tightening.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 8, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "36c4ce26347dd1aae7029596e0cb3e96", - "text": "Downside risks\u2014Numerous downside risks continue to weigh on the global outlook, lowering growth while, in a number of cases, adding further to inflation:", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 8, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "9d5064113562605b7a1b3f1bc24840a4", - "text": "capacity, especially outside the major urban areas, significant health consequences could hamper the recovery. A deepening crisis in the real estate market remains a major source of vulnerability, with risks of widespread defaults by developers and resulting financial sector instability. Spillovers to the rest of the world would operate primarily through lower demand and potentially renewed supply chain problems.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 8, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "a020d627fc081a56453ab6b3ee8c0881", - "text": "vulnerability, particularly for Europe and lower-income countries. Europe is facing lower-than- anticipated gas prices, having stored enough gas to make shortages unlikely this winter. However, refilling storage with much-diminished Russian flows will be challenging ahead of next winter, particularly if it is a very cold one and China\u2019s energy demand picks up, causing price spikes. A possible increase in food prices from a failed extension of the Black Sea grain initiative would put further pressure on lower-income countries that are experiencing food insecurity and have limited budgetary room to cushion the impact on households and businesses. With elevated food and fuel prices, social unrest may increase.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 8, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "5a4931739cd615032ea03860c3ace150", - "text": "Debt distress: Since October, sovereign spreads for emerging market and developing economies have modestly declined on the back of an easing in global financial conditions (Box 1) and dollar depreciation. About 15 percent of low-income countries are estimated to be in debt distress, with an additional 45 percent at high risk of debt distress and about 25 percent of emerging market economies also at high risk. The combination of high debt levels from the pandemic, lower growth, and higher borrowing costs exacerbates the vulnerability of these economies, especially those with significant near-term dollar financing needs. Inflation persisting: Persistent labor market tightness could translate into stronger-than-expected wage growth. Higher-than-expected oil, gas, and food prices from the war in Ukraine or from a faster rebound in China\u2019s growth could again raise headline inflation and pass through into underlying inflation. Such developments could cause inflation expectations to de-anchor and require an even tighter monetary policy.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 8, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "5c53b2d3f514a92cc6c099fd9a46b49a", - "text": "Sudden financial market repricing: A premature easing in financial conditions in response to lower headline inflation data could complicate anti-inflation policies and necessitate additional monetary tightening. For the same reason, unfavorable inflation data releases could trigger sudden repricing of assets and increase volatility in financial markets. Such movements could strain liquidity and the functioning of critical markets, with ripple effects on the real economy.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 8, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "e3c931f10a12b33fb9aeb6427a16c7ae", - "text": "Geopolitical fragmentation: The war in Ukraine and the related international sanctions aimed at pressuring Russia to end hostilities are splitting the world economy into blocs and reinforcing", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 8, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "84d70cebf2068479ad03b1f4fca89141", - "text": "earlier geopolitical tensions, such as those associated with the US-China trade dispute.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 8, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "9fda15cda44df99e579f024b037349d9", - "text": "International Monetary Fund | January 2023. 7", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 8, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Header", - "element_id": "8e25ec572941a6a14bbab64312dd35a2", - "text": "WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE, JANUARY 2023", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 9, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "1e6c82906e4e6d414004cb6af55cfdd8", - "text": "Fragmentation could intensify\u2014with more restrictions on cross-border movements of capital, workers, and international payments\u2014and could hamper multilateral cooperation on providing global public goods.1 The costs of such fragmentation are especially high in the short term, as replacing disrupted cross-border flows takes time.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 9, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "72c775cd8adaa0370bdbb1bc30c57907", - "text": "Policy Priorities", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 9, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "975bc3e42433eb8c66e588bea7cd7510", - "text": "Securing global disinflation: For most economies, the priority remains achieving a sustained reduction in inflation toward target levels. Raising real policy rates and keeping them above their neutral levels until underlying inflation is clearly declining would ward off risks of inflation expectations de- anchoring. Clear central bank communication and appropriate reactions to shifts in the data will help keep inflation expectations anchored and lessen wage and price pressures. Central banks\u2019 balance sheets will need to be unwound carefully, amid market liquidity risks. Gradual and steady fiscal tightening would contribute to cooling demand and limit the burden on monetary policy in the fight against inflation. In countries where output remains below potential and inflation is in check, maintaining monetary and fiscal accommodation may be appropriate.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 9, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "aa7909a0b52db93a6f10d7fd56f76550", - "text": "Containing the reemergence of COVID-19: Addressing the ongoing pandemic requires coordinated efforts to boost vaccination and medicine access in countries where coverage remains low as well as the deployment of pandemic preparedness measures\u2014including a global push toward sequencing and sharing data. In China, focusing vaccination efforts on vulnerable groups and maintaining sufficiently high coverage of boosters and antiviral medicines would minimize the risks of severe health outcomes and safeguard the recovery, with favorable cross-border spillovers.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 9, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "ca07b88dc1247f54719122a49cc5fd59", - "text": "Ensuring financial stability: Depending on country circumstances, macroprudential tools can be used to tackle pockets of elevated financial sector vulnerabilities. Monitoring housing sector developments and conducting stress tests in economies where house prices have increased significantly over the past few years are warranted. In China, central government action to resolve the property crisis and reduce the risk of spillovers to financial stability and growth is a priority, including by strengthening temporary mechanisms to protect presale homebuyers from the risk of non-delivery and by restructuring troubled developers. Globally, financial sector regulations introduced after the global financial crisis have contributed to the resilience of banking sectors throughout the pandemic, but there is a need to address data and supervisory gaps in the less-regulated nonbank financial sector, where risks may have built up inconspicuously. Recent turmoil in the crypto space also highlights the urgent need to introduce common standards and reinforce oversight of crypto assets.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 9, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "328214785cd96977b4cbbd5a778942d1", - "text": "Restoring debt sustainability: Lower growth and higher borrowing costs have raised public debt ratios in several economies. Where debt is unsustainable, implementing restructuring or reprofiling early on as part of a package of reforms (including fiscal consolidation and growth-enhancing supply-side reforms) can avert the need for more disruptive adjustment later.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 9, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "3a2ff2baa28f7160cee0e8c2cc842661", - "text": "Supporting the vulnerable: The surge in global energy and food prices triggered a cost-of-living crisis. Governments acted swiftly with support to households and firms, which helped cushion effects on growth and at times limited the pass-through from energy prices to headline inflation through price", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 9, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "3601c468c40a282c19c8abdcca4add1b", - "text": "1 See \u201cGeo-Economic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism,\u201d IMF Staff Discussion Note 2023/001.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 9, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Footer", - "element_id": "4480feb00164d7db4e269a2adc4f73d2", - "text": "8 International Monetary Fund | January 2023", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 9, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Header", - "element_id": "0f9c4deaa35a06e367d2460d890b3dad", - "text": "WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE, JANUARY 2023", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 10, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "426f6eb8bbe7d2f5fe507b439d2ebc2b", - "text": "controls. The temporary and broad-based measures are becoming increasingly costly and should be withdrawn and replaced by targeted approaches. Preserving the energy price signal will encourage a reduction in energy consumption and limit the risks of shortages. Targeting can be achieved through social safety nets such as cash transfers to eligible households based on income or demographics or by transfers through electricity companies based on past energy consumption. Subsidies should be temporary and offset by revenue-generating measures, including one-time solidarity taxes on high- income households and companies, where appropriate.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 10, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "405cec1fe989a0ad8960b938355d4c7b", - "text": "Reinforcing supply: Supply-side policies could address the key structural factors impeding growth\u2014 including market power, rent seeking, rigid regulation and planning, and inefficient education\u2014and could help build resilience, reduce bottlenecks, and alleviate price pressures. A concerted push for investment along the supply chain of green energy technologies would bolster energy security and help advance progress on the green transition.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 10, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "c7a53c81c39c885df191bbf239165b3d", - "text": "Strengthening multilateral cooperation\u2014Urgent action is needed to limit the risks stemming from geopolitical fragmentation and to ensure cooperation on fundamental areas of common interest:", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 10, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "65269b45848d66c7d8b45099ddf6a328", - "text": "Restraining the pandemic: Global coordination is needed to resolve bottlenecks in the global", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 10, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "2ae3be4a3aa90a31eea5a5a306d3837c", - "text": "distribution of vaccines and treatments. Public support for the development of new vaccine technologies and the design of systematic responses to future epidemics also remains essential. Addressing debt distress: Progress has been made for countries that requested debt treatment under the Group of Twenty\u2019s Common Framework initiative, and more will be needed to strengthen it. It is also necessary to agree on mechanisms to resolve debt in a broader set of economies, including middle-income countries that are not eligible under the Common Framework. Non\u2013 Paris Club and private creditors have a crucial role to play in ensuring coordinated, effective, and timely debt resolution processes.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 10, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "45e6f88f4dabe97ff6778317c9249838", - "text": "Strengthening global trade: Strengthening the global trading system would address risks associated with trade fragmentation. This can be achieved by rolling back restrictions on food exports and other essential items such as medicine, upgrading World Trade Organization (WTO) rules in critical areas such as agricultural and industrial subsidies, concluding and implementing new WTO-based agreements, and fully restoring the WTO dispute settlement system.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 10, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "366056038aacb60e1ce242fff64e54ba", - "text": "Using the global financial safety net: With the cascading of shocks to the global economy, using the global financial safety net to its fullest extent is appropriate, including by proactively utilizing the IMF\u2019s precautionary financial arrangements and channeling aid from the international community to low-income countries facing shocks.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 10, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "7325338aa370c261a2582cadd41fefb5", - "text": "Speeding the green transition: To meet governments\u2019 climate change goals, it is necessary to swiftly implement credible mitigation policies. International coordination on carbon pricing or equivalent policies would facilitate faster decarbonization. Global cooperation is needed to build resilience to climate shocks, including through aid to vulnerable countries.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 10, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "fbb9304898eea6b4435134ec70696620", - "text": "International Monetary Fund | January 2023 9", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 10, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Image", - "element_id": "10ea5d031e3bc9c3e108ffdd979b856d", - "text": "BOX 1. GL AL FINANCIAL STABILITY UPDATE", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 11, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "07d29d53937f3f8bf76548a1f7c8b017", - "text": "Overall, financial stability risks remain elevated as investors reassess their inflation and monetary policy outlook. Global financial conditions have eased somewhat since the October 2022 Global Financial Stability Report, driven largely by changing market expectations regarding the interest rate cycle (Figure 1.1). While the expected peak in policy rates\u2014the terminal rate\u2014has risen, markets now also expect the subsequent fall in rates will be significantly faster, and further, than what was forecast in October (Figure 1.2). As a result, global bond yields have recently declined, corporate spreads have tightened, and equity markets have rebounded. That said, central banks are likely to continue to tighten monetary policy to fight inflation, and concerns that this restrictive stance could tip the economy into a recession have increased in major advanced economies.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 11, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "f1dc7632c3c313cc34bc6a4f64af05b5", - "text": "Figure 1.1. Global Financial Conditions: Selected Regions (Standard deviations from mean)", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 11, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Image", - "element_id": "16c33c9e209b518305829584935190dd", - "text": "7 6 5 4 United States Euro area China Other AEs Other EMs October 2022 GFSR 3 2 1 0 \u20131 \u20132 \u20133 2006 08 08 06 10 10 12 12 14 16 14 16 18 18 20 22 22 20 ", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 11, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "FigureCaption", - "element_id": "f61c8f5157c0dedec7bd07b89b5818fd", - "text": "Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; Haver Analytics; national data sources; and IMF staff calculations. Note: AEs = advanced economies; EMs = emerging markets. GFSR = Global Financial Stability Report.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 11, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "fd3223759c188ca12a81861f36083bb9", - "text": "Slowing aggregate demand and weaker-than-expected inflation prints in some major advanced economies have prompted investors\u2019 anticipation of a further reduction in the pace of future policy rate hikes. Corporate earnings forecasts have been cut due to headwinds from slowing demand, and margins have contracted across most regions. In addition, survey-based probabilities of recession have been increasing, particularly in the United States and Europe. However, upside risks to the inflation outlook remain. Despite the recent moderation in headline inflation, core inflation remains stubbornly high across most regions, labor markets are still tight, energy prices remain pressured by Russia\u2019s ongoing war in Ukraine, and supply chain disruptions may reappear. To keep these risks in check, financial conditions will likely need to tighten further. If not, central banks may need to increase policy rates even more in order to achieve their inflation objectives.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 11, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "9f931c3b54669a87892391846beda98c", - "text": "Figure 1.2. Market-Implied Expectations of Policy Rates (Percent)", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 11, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Image", - "element_id": "bffdca980631ced1f96ab886cf9dcf22", - "text": "Latest October 2022 GFSR 6 1. United States 2. Euro area 5 4 3 2 5 4 3 2 1 1 Oct. 22 Apr. 23 Oct. 23 Dec. 24 Dec. 26 Oct. 22 Apr. 23 Oct. 23 Dec. 24 Dec. 26 ", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 11, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "f787afd6d27e6bfdc89bd82044a417a6", - "text": "Given the tension between rising recession risks and monetary policy uncertainty, markets have seen significant volatility. While many central banks in advanced economies have stepped down the size of hikes, they have also explicitly stated they will need to keep rates higher, for a longer period of time, to tamp down inflation. Risk assets could face significant declines if earnings retrench further or if investors reassess their outlook for monetary policy given central bank communications. Globally, the partial reversal of the dollar rally has contributed to recent easing due to improved risk appetite, and some emerging market central banks have paused tightening amid tentative signs that inflation may have peaked.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 11, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "b0002e1597c04292e2e01d4e15cb0dd7", - "text": "Financial market volatility is expected to remain elevated and could be exacerbated by poor market liquidity. For some asset classes (such as US Treasuries), liquidity has deteriorated to the March 2020 lows of the COVID-19 pandemic. With the process of central bank balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) underway, market liquidity is expected to remain challenging.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 11, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "2a9dc522d08d54609f97f566911ceed1", - "text": "10 \u2014 International Monetary Fund | January 2023", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 11, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "103cccd2abc41bc4beb9e70dff33123a", - "text": "WEO Update \u00a9 2023 \u2022 ISBN: 979-8-40023-224-4", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 11, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/2023-Jan-economic-outlook.pdf", - "version": "c7eed4fc056b089a98f6a3ad9ec9373e", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676359888.0", - "date_modified": "1676359888.0" - } - } - } -] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/test_unstructured_ingest/expected-structured-output/s3/page-with-formula.pdf.json b/test_unstructured_ingest/expected-structured-output/s3/page-with-formula.pdf.json deleted file mode 100644 index 49147dbf2c..0000000000 --- a/test_unstructured_ingest/expected-structured-output/s3/page-with-formula.pdf.json +++ /dev/null @@ -1,376 +0,0 @@ -[ - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "7581b3e14a56c276896da707704c221e", - "text": "output values. These are concatenated and once again projected, resulting in the final values, as depicted in Figure 2.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/page-with-formula.pdf", - "version": "f2819db63e5aa2a3a6b8ba305f1911ea", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1697584841.0", - "date_modified": "1697584841.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "5f0b9e258d134a12434aaa080638e9de", - "text": "Multi-head attention allows the model to jointly attend to information from different representation subspaces at different positions. With a single attention head, averaging inhibits this.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/page-with-formula.pdf", - "version": "f2819db63e5aa2a3a6b8ba305f1911ea", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1697584841.0", - "date_modified": "1697584841.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Formula", - "element_id": "2f5b0b2ffa8872dde498f34cd4af6bd9", - "text": "MultiHead(Q, K, V ) = Concat(head1, ..., headh)W O where headi = Attention(QW Q i , KW K i , V W V i )", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/page-with-formula.pdf", - "version": "f2819db63e5aa2a3a6b8ba305f1911ea", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1697584841.0", - "date_modified": "1697584841.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "703f1d4e9204c8b7ea94191f87138425", - "text": "Where the projections are parameter matrices W Q and W O \u2208 Rhdv\u00d7dmodel. i \u2208 Rdmodel\u00d7dk , W K i \u2208 Rdmodel\u00d7dk , W V i \u2208 Rdmodel\u00d7dv", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/page-with-formula.pdf", - "version": "f2819db63e5aa2a3a6b8ba305f1911ea", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1697584841.0", - "date_modified": "1697584841.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "e3e4737377b1614b02426ccc77bdcfc3", - "text": "In this work we employ h = 8 parallel attention layers, or heads. For each of these we use dk = dv = dmodel/h = 64. Due to the reduced dimension of each head, the total computational cost is similar to that of single-head attention with full dimensionality.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/page-with-formula.pdf", - "version": "f2819db63e5aa2a3a6b8ba305f1911ea", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1697584841.0", - "date_modified": "1697584841.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "31e28cc49f5625cec5e262fbb4b7e5f0", - "text": "3.2.3 Applications of Attention in our Model", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/page-with-formula.pdf", - "version": "f2819db63e5aa2a3a6b8ba305f1911ea", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1697584841.0", - "date_modified": "1697584841.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "f84e983da98f26bd5c141846aeffd0aa", - "text": "The Transformer uses multi-head attention in three different ways:", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/page-with-formula.pdf", - "version": "f2819db63e5aa2a3a6b8ba305f1911ea", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1697584841.0", - "date_modified": "1697584841.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "fd24bf7bf21b4aab2a36021f9ebb253b", - "text": "\u2022 In \"encoder-decoder attention\" layers, the queries come from the previous decoder layer, and the memory keys and values come from the output of the encoder. This allows every position in the decoder to attend over all positions in the input sequence. This mimics the typical encoder-decoder attention mechanisms in sequence-to-sequence models such as [38, 2, 9].", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/page-with-formula.pdf", - "version": "f2819db63e5aa2a3a6b8ba305f1911ea", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1697584841.0", - "date_modified": "1697584841.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "77762865993fd26c55c87cb45d75cad8", - "text": "\u2022 The encoder contains self-attention layers. In a self-attention layer all of the keys, values and queries come from the same place, in this case, the output of the previous layer in the encoder. Each position in the encoder can attend to all positions in the previous layer of the encoder.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/page-with-formula.pdf", - "version": "f2819db63e5aa2a3a6b8ba305f1911ea", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1697584841.0", - "date_modified": "1697584841.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "41b9b9d2a4329a8f6075f4776403c2de", - "text": "\u2022 Similarly, self-attention layers in the decoder allow each position in the decoder to attend to all positions in the decoder up to and including that position. We need to prevent leftward information flow in the decoder to preserve the auto-regressive property. We implement this inside of scaled dot-product attention by masking out (setting to \u2212\u221e) all values in the input of the softmax which correspond to illegal connections. See Figure 2.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/page-with-formula.pdf", - "version": "f2819db63e5aa2a3a6b8ba305f1911ea", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1697584841.0", - "date_modified": "1697584841.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "3b1f6da814e3826309b614d8b8dc9266", - "text": "3.3 Position-wise Feed-Forward Networks", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/page-with-formula.pdf", - "version": "f2819db63e5aa2a3a6b8ba305f1911ea", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1697584841.0", - "date_modified": "1697584841.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "46bb05e8d9c19147942fb75345ae3dbb", - "text": "In addition to attention sub-layers, each of the layers in our encoder and decoder contains a fully connected feed-forward network, which is applied to each position separately and identically. This consists of two linear transformations with a ReLU activation in between.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/page-with-formula.pdf", - "version": "f2819db63e5aa2a3a6b8ba305f1911ea", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1697584841.0", - "date_modified": "1697584841.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Formula", - "element_id": "eda9b46d50730928c8437d6149e01a2b", - "text": "FFN(x) = max(0, xW1 + b1)W2 + b2 (2)", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/page-with-formula.pdf", - "version": "f2819db63e5aa2a3a6b8ba305f1911ea", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1697584841.0", - "date_modified": "1697584841.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "43c1741dc91b5b67a03a726873df3be5", - "text": "While the linear transformations are the same across different positions, they use different parameters from layer to layer. Another way of describing this is as two convolutions with kernel size 1. The dimensionality of input and output is dmodel = 512, and the inner-layer has dimensionality df f = 2048.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/page-with-formula.pdf", - "version": "f2819db63e5aa2a3a6b8ba305f1911ea", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1697584841.0", - "date_modified": "1697584841.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "63fc763509dec0fa03ba8296e4b0616e", - "text": "3.4 Embeddings and Softmax", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/page-with-formula.pdf", - "version": "f2819db63e5aa2a3a6b8ba305f1911ea", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1697584841.0", - "date_modified": "1697584841.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "ab8cefbb53c308302ee0e3c0c7ecfd25", - "text": "Similarly to other sequence transduction models, we use learned embeddings to convert the input tokens and output tokens to vectors of dimension dmodel. We also use the usual learned linear transfor- mation and softmax function to convert the decoder output to predicted next-token probabilities. In our model, we share the same weight matrix between the two embedding layers and the pre-softmax dmodel. linear transformation, similar to [30]. In the embedding layers, we multiply those weights by", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/page-with-formula.pdf", - "version": "f2819db63e5aa2a3a6b8ba305f1911ea", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1697584841.0", - "date_modified": "1697584841.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Footer", - "element_id": "b45e24bb89196d4b50d76df531acfaf2", - "text": "5", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/page-with-formula.pdf", - "version": "f2819db63e5aa2a3a6b8ba305f1911ea", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1697584841.0", - "date_modified": "1697584841.0" - } - } - } -] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/test_unstructured_ingest/expected-structured-output/s3/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf.json b/test_unstructured_ingest/expected-structured-output/s3/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf.json deleted file mode 100644 index c614618094..0000000000 --- a/test_unstructured_ingest/expected-structured-output/s3/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf.json +++ /dev/null @@ -1,1938 +0,0 @@ -[ - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "614b7a52d42e8e3b66edf4943093c85c", - "text": "WORLD ASSOCIATION", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Image", - "element_id": "4ab4d4df6aeb3d4fb6d8102edd876ab8", - "text": "", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "7137c1e14141fad3ad306fe68918a967", - "text": "Recalibrating risk", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "dbdc2d6c6381e4fa1c7b8058bf86abef", - "text": "Putting nuclear risk in context and perspective", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 1, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "f71e85ddcaf37c2df39af496a16c23ab", - "text": "\u00a9 2021 World Nuclear Association", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 2, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "24a8636658e8d7b70af1f0536d494159", - "text": "Registered in England and Wales, company number 01215741. This report represents the views of individual experts, but does not necessarily represent those of any of the World Nuclear Association\u2019s individual member organizations.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 2, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "a301376c55ac727652cf954ec5e913d6", - "text": "Executive Summary", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 3, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "5b2ec7692e73027141163ac9031623f5", - "text": "Nuclear energy is crucial to meeting the world\u2019s ever-increasing demand for energy, thanks to its ability to supply affordable, reliable, and sustainable electricity and heat. Despite the many benefits of nuclear energy, its deployment is hindered in some parts of the world due to long-standing misconceptions about its risks. Even with its safety record \u2013 unmatched by any other energy source \u2013 the perception of nuclear power as uniquely dangerous endures.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 3, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "cb2f79944be60fd4447f31653abc1c33", - "text": "This is reflected in the regulatory burden placed on the nuclear industry, which is geared towards an \u201cas low as possible\u201d approach, demanding radiation levels to be far below the levels where health effects have been observed (and in many cases below natural background radiation). This has resulted in higher costs, without delivering any additional health benefits, and has resulted in policymakers choosing other, more risky energy sources. More often than not, those alternative energy sources have been fossil fuels, greatly exacerbating the well-known risks posed by air pollution and climate change.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 3, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "edd5a77bbaec194649c3e909359778dc", - "text": "Expanding the use of nuclear energy is essential for solving some of the biggest challenges facing humanity. Nuclear power has already played a major role in avoiding the emission of air pollutants and greenhouse gases, a role that will have to be greatly expanded in the future to ensure global energy supplies are decarbonized by 2050. Nuclear energy will also play a major part in ensuring that the transition to a low-carbon future is done in an equitable fashion, providing people across the world with a high-powered and sustainable future.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 3, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "0176a09ce730c661b03e05b873f406e0", - "text": "In order to fully unlock the potential of the atom, it is crucial that the gap between perceived and actual risks is addressed. The window of opportunity to act on climate change and other global challenges is closing fast \u2013 we must not delay increasing the contribution of nuclear energy on the grounds of myths and misconceptions.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 3, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "f6475defefd93d0b101032386c3904b9", - "text": "Therefore, World Nuclear Association calls upon policymakers and regulators to adopt an all-hazards approach, where different risks associated with energy producing technologies are placed in perspective and the appropriate context, and examined in line with the latest scientific evidence. Policymakers and regulators must ensure that their decisions regarding radiation protection do not create greater risks elsewhere. This include the recalibration of existing regulations regarding nuclear power and radiation, weighing the cost of regulatory measures against the societal benefits provided by nuclear energy.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 3, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Image", - "element_id": "0e8aeb80f607db6cdf4f1fbcfc095048", - "text": "", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 3, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Footer", - "element_id": "14926217ad635f3b0d8aa6a1c084ffae", - "text": "1", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 3, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Header", - "element_id": "d7d7ca3be3dd09816ae5d0294281e8d9", - "text": "2", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 4, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "ca878cdd15c9e34463e380dfcb994c2d", - "text": "Perceived versus actual risk", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 4, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "7a6ffe00fc921772e62d72d8b36ae72d", - "text": "It is widely accepted that humans have skewed perceptions of risks, and the way we respond to them is shaped by these perceptions, rather than the actual threats posed. Approximately 1.35 millioni people die every year because of traffic accidents, in comparison with 257 aviation fatalities in 2019ii, yet more people are nervous about flying, fearing a rare deadly crash, than being in a fatal traffic accident. These numbers tell a powerful and well-established story: evaluations of risk are largely the result of emotions, rather than logic or facts. Although it is hard to recognize and accept that our perceptions may mislead us and curtail effective decision making, this is a well-established characteristic of humanity.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 4, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "31ed39cf3f959ddf86d3eba65cb79a01", - "text": "Nuclear energy and the risk of radiation is one of the most extreme cases in which perceived and actual risks have diverged. The fear of radiation, whilst pre- dating the Second World War, was firmly established by the debate on the potential impacts of low-dose radiation from the fallout from nuclear weapons testing in the early years of the Cold War. Radiation in many ways became linked with the mental imagery of nuclear war, playing an important role in increasing public concern about radiation and its health effects. There is a well-established discrepancy between fact-based risk assessments and public perception of different risks. This is very much the case with nuclear power, and this is clearly highlighted in Figure 1, with laypersons ranking nuclear power as the highest risk out of 30 activities and technologies, with experts ranking nuclear as 20th. In many ways, popular culture\u2019s depiction of radiation has played a role in ensuring that this discrepancy has remained, be it Godzilla, The Incredible Hulk, or The Simpsons, which regularly plays on the notion of radiation from nuclear power plants causing three-eyed fish, something that has been firmly rejected as unscientific.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 4, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "a66214340855880a5393384d1363511c", - "text": "Rank Order Laypersons", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 4, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Table", - "element_id": "9512f477364e1da1fa60dbd237c41f85", - "text": "Experts 1 20 Nuclear power Motor vehicles 2 1 4 3 Handguns 2 4 Smoking Electric power (non-nuclear) 9 17 22 7 X-rays 25 30 Vaccinations", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 4, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "3ff36869cefb14183f0955094a908fc5", - "text": "In reality, radiation is a natural part of life; indeed, we are all exposed to radiation every day, on average receiving 2-3 millisieverts (mSv) per year. Most of this radiation is naturally occurring, with radon gas from the ground being the main source of exposure. The nuclear industry is responsible for a very small part of radiation exposure to the public, as seen in Figure 2. To put this into perspective, eating 10 bananas or two Brazil nuts results in the same radiation dose as living nearby a nuclear power plant for a year. Humans are also naturally radioactive, and the radiation dose from sleeping next to someone else each night for a year is ten times higher than the exposure from living nearby a nuclear power plant for the same time span.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 4, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "773667f6d4fbe19cc347ace06ca3664e", - "text": "In fact, scientific consensus is that when it comes to preventing exposure to radiation, nuclear power is much better than other electricity generators. A 2016 reportiii from the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) found that coal-generated electricity is responsible for more than half of the total global radiation exposure arising from electricity generation, while nuclear power contributed less than a fifth. Coal miners received high occupational exposure and workers in solar and wind farms received the highest occupational exposure associated with plant construction for the same amount of installed capacity.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 4, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "6dab7cb99fa308838e8c0413caccb7f1", - "text": "1 The original study was published in 1978, but its findings have been confirmed by numerous studies since.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 4, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Image", - "element_id": "57a9b2172894596e88b48caac276416d", - "text": "Natural Artificial 48% Radon 14% Buildings & soil 12% Food & water 10% Cosmic 4% Thoron 11% Medicine 0.4% 0.4% Miscellaneous 0.2% Occupational 0.04% Nuclear discharges Fallout ", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 5, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "FigureCaption", - "element_id": "9add7e245b0191530386fcf00bb218df", - "text": "Figure 2. Global average exposure from different sources of radiation", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 5, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "e9a9edcbe70d12be56e6947010012f76", - "text": "Fossil fuels \u2013 currently accounting for around 81% of total energy supplyiv \u2013 cause significant levels of emissions in terms of both greenhouse gases and air pollutants. Despite the serious and ongoing health and environmental harms caused by air pollution, it is often considered to be an inevitable consequence of economic development. Air pollution\u2019s contribution to the burden of disease is profound, with an estimated 8.7 million people dying worldwide prematurely in 2018 alonev,vi. Despite this, it fails to induce the same fears and anxieties in people as nuclear energy does.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 5, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "b8ec2beffbf0ae3c620edbc5288b5e7f", - "text": "In terms of accidents, hydropower is the deadliest electricity generator, mostly due to collapsing dams and the consequences of flooding. The Banqiao Dam failure in 1975 led to at least 26,000 people drowning, and as many as 150,000 deaths resulting from the secondary effects of the accident. In comparison, radiation exposure following Chernobyl caused 54 deaths2, while no casualties due to radiation are likely to occur from the accident at Fukushima Daiichi.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 5, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Image", - "element_id": "1b93c33208a85ba6d2a69d23babd6def", - "text": "25 24.6 20 18.4 e 15 10 5 4.6 2.8 0 C oal Oil Bio m ass N atural gas 0.07 Wind 0.04 H ydropo w er 0.02 S olar 0.01 N uclear ", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 5, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "6c9fe7851d0f4e06c5ec939f53dbce3b", - "text": "r a e y", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 5, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "a70b649d3f49fafd8a15a6617364bd69", - "text": "W T", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 5, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "26963be98ae7ff2e8c0428862d074cf6", - "text": "r e p s e i t i l", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 5, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "b69c60ea2e3fa24e25a069f90ee4b696", - "text": "a t a F", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 5, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "FigureCaption", - "element_id": "af241d12aef0f51bace400db4e14649d", - "text": "Figure 3. Comparison of number of fatalities due to electricity generation, including accidents and air pollution3", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 5, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "1e41836d6d7be638be9c0de0ce2c2256", - "text": "Contrary to perceptions, nuclear is an incredibly safe source of energy (see Figure 3 for a comparison). What is also clear is that the continued use of alternative energy sources in preference to nuclear energy \u2013 in particular fossil fuels \u2013 poses a far greater risk to public health by significantly contributing to climate change and air pollution.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 5, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "ListItem", - "element_id": "59b04b23d82c7c013abd6477a14c9425", - "text": "2 Including 28 firefighters that were exposed to lethal amounts of radiation during the accident night, and 15 fatal cases of thyroid cancer. 3 Sources drawn upon: Markandya, A., & Wilkinson, P. (2007), Sovacool et al. (2016). Data for nuclear accidents modified to reflect the 2012 UNSCEAR report and the 2015 US NRC SOARCA study.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 5, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Header", - "element_id": "9a8b3b64f6d252a6d31d87d306952ca2", - "text": "3", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 5, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Header", - "element_id": "e754a2849dac122e7d2e05447f0da512", - "text": "4", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 6, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "21b4c32e6d360d1d70e59dad888e306d", - "text": "The low-dose question", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 6, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "26e60e901d12cbb5efb851fe945a3f96", - "text": "Since the 1950s, the Linear No-Threshold (LNT) theory has been used to inform regulatory decisions, positing that any dose of radiation, regardless of the amount or the duration over which it is received, poses a risk. Assuming that LNT is correct, we should expect to see that people living in areas of the world where background doses are higher (e.g. India, Iran and northern Europe) have a higher incidence of cancer. However, despite people living in areas of the world where radiation doses are naturally higher than those that would be received in parts of the evacuation zones around Chernobyl and Fukushima Daiichi, there is no evidence that these populations exhibit any negative health effects. Living nearby a nuclear power plant on average exposes the local population to 0.00009mSv/year, which according to LNT would increase the risk of developing cancer by 0.00000045%. After Chernobyl, the average dose to those evacuated was 30mSv, which would theoretically increase the risk of cancer at some point in their lifetime by 0.15% (on top of the average baseline lifetime risk of cancer, which is 39.5% in the USviii, 50% in the UKix).", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 6, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "31d07d8c2dce96dc1c6daa38f8597ab5", - "text": "Since the 1980s, there has been considerable scientific debate as to whether the LNT theory is valid, following scientific breakthroughs within, for example, radiobiology and medicine. Indeed, the Chernobyl accident helped illuminate some of the issues associated with LNT. Multiplication of the low doses after the accident (many far too low to be of any health concern) with large populations \u2013 using the assumptions made by LNT \u2013 led to a large number of predicted cancer deaths, which have not, and likely will not materialize. This practice has been heavily criticized for being inappropriate in making risk assessments by UNSCEAR, the International Commission on Radiation Protection and a large number of independent scientists.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 6, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "4fb06aef292d07a36339c830eb23c8b5", - "text": "Determining the precise risk (or lack thereof) of the extremely small radiation doses associated with the routine operations of nuclear power plants, the disposal of nuclear waste or even extremely rare nuclear accidents is a purely academic exercise, that tries to determine whether the risk is extremely low, too small to detect, or non- existent. The risks of low-level radiation pale in comparison to other societal risks such as obesity, smoking, and air pollution.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 6, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "1d9fdadf74d73e63be2e683b0a73d86d", - "text": "By looking at radiation risks in isolation, we prolong the over-regulation of radiation in nuclear plants, driving up costs, whilst not delivering any additional health benefits, in turn incentivising the use of more harmful energy sources. A recalibration is required, and this can only done by ensuring a holistic approach to risk is taken.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 6, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Image", - "element_id": "31e685f786964a09b167a0fb68c01973", - "text": "", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 6, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "d3b1c14b00a459af4d32459678203328", - "text": "Adopting an all-hazards approach", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 7, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "4ab8051907907017f78ae83e1b95dc07", - "text": "Contemporary debates around nuclear energy often reflect the precautionary principle, a problematic concept applied across a range of regulatory and policy issues. A \u2018strong\u2019 interpretation of the precautionary principle, or a \u2018as low as possible\u2019 approach to risk, dictates that regulation is required whenever there is a potential adverse health risk, even if the evidence is not certain and regardless of the cost of regulation.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 7, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "bac4e8745150c829821f40387f9107c6", - "text": "The overall regulatory philosophy, at least theoretically, used in the nuclear industry is the ALARA (As Low As Reasonably Achievable) principle, where any regulatory action on radiation should account for socio- economic benefits and costs, as opposed to making decisions based on radiation risks alone.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 7, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "4ea8f70af2d39cae9f63fce0ea7165f1", - "text": "However, the regulatory process and the policy debate around nuclear more broadly has long departed from the ALARA principle, no longer weighing cost versus benefits, or considering the overall advantages of nuclear energy, but rather looking at radiation in isolation. This has resulted in a subtle shift towards an \u2018as low as possible\u2019 mentality. Attempting to reduce radiation far below de facto safe levels has resulted in an escalation of costs and loss of public confidence, and in some cases has deprived communities of the many benefits nuclear energy provides. In practical terms, this has led to the continued use of more harmful energy sources, such as fossil fuels.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 7, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "17f00667e4e913d53d1deec4900e13f2", - "text": "If the potential of nuclear energy is to be fully realized, public health and safety approaches must be recalibrated to consider a wider range of factors when considering radiation, adopting an \u201call-hazards\u201d approach. Such an approach must ensure that risks are placed within a proper perspective and context, rather than looking at them in isolation. We therefore must not look at the costs \u2013 be they economic, environmental, or public health \u2013 associated with an individual power plant in isolation, but rather the costs associated with it (and its alternatives) at a societal level (Figure 4). This would entail looking at the potential risks arising from the use of nuclear power and comparing these with the risks associated with not adopting nuclear power.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 7, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Image", - "element_id": "dc83c2d2395c30a8785a2533424f1c72", - "text": "Plant-level production costs at market prices Grid-level costs of the electricity system Social and environmental costs of emissions, land-use, climate change, security of supply, etc. ", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 7, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "FigureCaption", - "element_id": "a4c9c9c3c416898e4ba9df7c3a3e31ac", - "text": "Figure 4. The different levels of cost associated with electricity generationx", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 7, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "4d355be258d489a707dfd634ea0f8810", - "text": "A more holistic regulatory process would be required, in which regulators move away from being siloed, looking at specific risks in isolation, with little regard for the greater picture. The move towards an all-hazard, holistic approach would require greater coordination between regulators, ensuring that the combined risks of a specific nuclear project are weighed against the risks posed by not advancing said project.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 7, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "9c79edb1b3d13f851f56559d7d3046a8", - "text": "Equally, the adoption of an all-hazards approach means regulators should consider declaring when a risk is too low to be a public health concern, in line with what the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission attempted to do with its Below Regulatory Concern policy statements in the 1980s and early 1990s. In the context of nuclear power, this means departing from the notion that LNT instils of no safe level of radiation, and adopting a regulatory framework which notes the impossibility of eradicating risks. Failing to do so will result in excessive regulation that continues to limit the full potential of nuclear power in tackling climate change and sees a continued reliance on objectively more harmful energy sources.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 7, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Header", - "element_id": "4fa08c2ba2738ea62be41b466b794caa", - "text": "5", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 7, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Header", - "element_id": "eeae015ec524f1b1bb0f7ac376a2090b", - "text": "6", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 8, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Title", - "element_id": "b9eaa26361e53e6e430494de5febf1b1", - "text": "Recalibrating the risk conversation", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 8, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "d4b3fedebdff5b1fbae81fce93b964b2", - "text": "By looking at radiation risks in isolation, we have created something akin to a \u201cradiation phobia\u201d, that both directly and indirectly harms people around the world. For instance, it is well established that the vast majority of health impacts from Chernobyl and Fukushima Daiichi were not radiological, but rather psychosocial. There has been an observable and dramatic increase in depression, PTSD, substance abuse, and suicides following these events, which can be significantly attributed to the dissonance between the actual and perceived risks of radiation, and the stigmatization they caused.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 8, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "f71d9a617fd81ca5b4e4fd8070b56548", - "text": "Similarly, many of the tremendous challenges the global community faces are significantly driven by this \u201cradiation phobia\u201d. Indeed, several of these issues have been considerably exacerbated by the fact that certain risks are given a disproportionate amount of focus, whereas others are de facto ignored. The global conversation around climate change is a prime example of this. The historical use of fossil fuels has contributed significantly to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions, causing unprecedented changes in the liveability of the Earth. By 2025, half of the world\u2019s population will be living in water-stressed areas, as extreme heat and droughts are exacerbating water resources. Between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to be the cause of an additional 250,000 deaths per year, arising from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat stressx. Yet, despite the huge risks associated with climate change, our addiction to coal, oil, and fossil gas remains, with fossil fuels providing 84% of global primary energy in 2019xii. The continued prioritization of fossil fuels at the expense of nuclear energy results in a considerable increase in the risks posed by climate change.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 8, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Image", - "element_id": "482fb91e0e9646a1ad97fe9881ff6053", - "text": "", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 8, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Image", - "element_id": "b0197950e1af5c2aac10f5b67d61524a", - "text": "", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 8, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "Image", - "element_id": "34d2dd4af420ea3fdddc8fc5d581cac2", - "text": "", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 8, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "FigureCaption", - "element_id": "a8ac039aa1d77ac96ecd4c8c14a556d5", - "text": "Equally, it is well established that living without access to electricity results in illness and death around the world, caused by everything from not having access to modern healthcare to household air pollution. As of today, 770 million people around the world do not have access to electricity, with over 75% of that population living in Sub-Saharan Africa. The world's poorest 4 billion people consume a mere 5% of the energy used in developed economies, and we need to find ways of delivering reliable electricity to the entire human population in a fashion that is sustainable. Household and ambient air pollution causes 8.7 million deaths each year, largely because of the continued use of fossil fuels. Widespread electrification is a key tool for delivering a just energy transition. Investment in nuclear, has become an urgent necessity. 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We cannot address many of the global challenges we face without a significant increase in the use of nuclear energy. The detrimental effects of decades of looking at nuclear risks in isolation highlights just how crucial it is that regulators and policymakers change the way they view nuclear energy, and transition towards an all-hazards approach, ensuring that actions taken to mitigate risks do not result in creating more severe risks.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 9, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "2b6ea4cb3cdceb2bb69833c7fecedca7", - "text": "We must begin to holistically look at the severity of the consequences of maintaining the current energy production system, many of which are irreversible. The ways in which we address climate change and other issues of global importance must be sustainable and not create new hazards down the line. The reality is that nuclear has always been and remains an exceptionally safe source of energy, representing the lowest risk, the most sustainable, and the most affordable ways to generate around-the-clock electricity.", - "metadata": { - "filetype": "application/pdf", - "languages": [ - "eng" - ], - "page_number": 9, - "data_source": { - "url": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/recalibrating-risk-report.pdf", - "version": "e690f37ef36368a509d150f373a0bbe0", - "record_locator": { - "protocol": "s3", - "remote_file_path": "s3://utic-dev-tech-fixtures/small-pdf-set/" - }, - "date_created": "1676196572.0", - "date_modified": "1676196572.0" - } - } - }, - { - "type": "NarrativeText", - "element_id": "a9903d695f11dc8e87d1a35cfd2673c0", - "text": "Therefore, World Nuclear Association calls upon policymakers and regulators to adopt an all-hazards approach, where different risks associated with energy producing technologies are placed in perspective and the appropriate context, and examined in line with the latest scientific evidence. Policymakers and regulators must ensure that their decisions regarding radiation protection do not create greater risks elsewhere. 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