Adaptive Splines for Prediction (ASP) #76
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Name
Adaptive Splines for Prediction
Screenshots
Focus Topic
Electric load forecasting tool
Primary Purpose
Use constrained smoothing splines to fit robust models of electric load as a function of temperature
Description
ASP learns the relationship between electric load and temperature for individual geographies (e.g. ReEDS regions, states, etc.) based on one or more years of historical data. The smoothing splines are used to learn the "aggregate" relationship between daily average load and daily average temperature, with simple averaging by month used to learn hourly offsets from the daily average. Together, these techniques yield a simple, lightweight method for fitting robust models that perform well both for description and prediction even with limited (e.g., a single year) and noisy (e.g., representing small or highly meteorologically variable geographies) data.
Mathematical Description
Spline fits are constrained to have a single critical point when modeling the relationship between daily average load and daily average temperature, such that forecasted loads are guaranteed to increase as temperatures become more extreme (both hot and cold).
Website
https://github.com/NREL/adaptive-splines
Documentation
https://github.com/NREL/adaptive-splines
Source
https://github.com/NREL/adaptive-splines
Year
2022
Institution
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Funding Source
DOE
Publications
2
Publication List
Forthcoming (2023) publication from NREL study "Enhanced Simulation Tools for Scheduling Solar Plus Storage Power Plants." PI: Sourabh Dalvi.
Forthcoming (2023) publication from NREL study "Foundational Assistance to ISO/RTOs under Electricity Market Transformation." PI: Bethany Frew.
Use Cases
Electric load forecasting as a function of temperature for both description and forecasting. Particularly relevant in limited-data-availability contexts.
Infrastructure Sector
Represented Behavior
Modeling Paradigm
Capabilities
No response
Programming Language
Required Dependencies
N/A
What is the software tool's license?
3-clause BSD License (BSD-3-Clause)
Operating System Support
User Interface
Parallel Computing Paradigm
What is the highest temporal resolution supported by the tool?
Hours
What is the typical temporal resolution supported by the tool?
Hours
What is the largest temporal scope supported by the tool?
Years
What is the typical temporal scope supported by the tool?
Years
What is the highest spatial resolution supported by the tool?
Facility
What is the typical spatial resolution supported by the tool?
State
What is the largest spatial scope supported by the tool?
Global
What is the typical spatial scope supported by the tool?
Region
Input Data Format
CSV
Input Data Description
Hourly temperature and load data
Output Data Format
CSV
Output Data Description
CSV files describing the fitted models
Contact Details
[email protected]
Interface, Integration, and Linkage
No response
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