To study page view trends for a Wikipedia article on Daylight Saving Time, we first used a Python script to extract the data from a Wikipedia database. Next, we used a GAM package called Prophet published by Facebook researchers to conduct our time series analysis in Python. The package is also available in R.
Accompanying tutorial here: https://algobeans.com/2017/04/04/laymans-tutorial-time-series-analysis/
Overall, annual, weekly and holiday trends:
Validating the model with simulated historical forecasts:
Examining error rates:
Comparing error rates across models to check effects of parameters:
References:
- Wikipedia page views data: http://stats.grok.se/
- Facebook Prophet package: https://facebookincubator.github.io/prophet/